Dem Switch numbers

XB: DE got so close to 100k physical (it probably reached 100k with digital numbers)

DAT Ring Fit Adventure boost.

Final Fantasy VII Remake not in the top 10 anymore.

Good for Xenoblade, great game!! deserves the recognition

So Animal Crossing at 5M physical on Famitsu by the end of the Quarter, the game could very easily be at 6.5M physical by the end of 2020.
This would make it the 4th Best Selling Game in Japan EVER and that's without the digital share. If digital is 20% for the year, the game will ship over 7.8M for making it 2nd only to Pokemon...
Animal Crossing is known for it's legs, New Leaf sold 3.5M in it's 52 Weeks, ended up at close to 6M lifetime.
If New Horizons sells a similar share after it's first 52 weeks on the market... we would be looking at a game that will sell over 12.M copies in Japan lifetime... is that possible?
With DLC, free updates & support for a couple of years. I don't see why it wouldn't - the main question, what is the ceiling?

TOP SELLING GAMES JAPAN ALL TIME:

11. Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (PSP) - 4.850.000

12. Animal Crossing: New Horizons (Switch) - 4.685.419

13. New Super Mario Bros (Wii) - 4.630.000

Right now Animal Crossing New Horizon physical is 33% attach rate, in 11 weeks... crazy how huge this game is in Japan.. not surprising, just crazy

A bit less than Xeno2, I thought it would increase a bit. Maybe it will be more popular overseas

because if this is the last big trick it wont reach 22 million in japan

Check this out, didn’t realize even if Q2 is by far the slowest quarter, NSW 2020 would of done soooo much better than even Q3 usual does. Anyways between the 3ds and itself for all Q2 these are the best ones...

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020)

Switch 19:1 over PS4 for the week. I would say it's time for PS5, and indeed it is, but I expect PS5 will sell similarly to PS4 in Japan, if not less.

The holidays are 5-6 months away, their current momentum will lose steam by then if not sustained by regular new releases.

Not sure if serious, if so then I’m feeling bad for you. 3ds did 24.5mil and NSW is currently closing the gap launch align (under 1.9mil and going strong). 3ds best years were in its 1st 3 years, but NSW is a different story. NSW would really need to fall off a cliff for it to not reach 22mil. 

Though I say we wait as I think Nintendo has a little different strategy in terms of announcing software (like Paper Mario) it doesn’t need a big holiday game, it’s not losing steam at all. If your going by japan sales only, demand is not close of being met nor will it during June/July and possibly further ahead. 

even with only let’s say pikmin 3 deluxe / Mario 3D collection / sm3dwd / another new game (insert smaller IP or new) / paper Mario (I think people underestimating this game) For July-Nov NSW sales won’t slow down, it’s on track already to hit 19mil.

again Q1 will be huge, NSW in japan is already ahead of every Q1 previously by a huge margin (see below) and that’s with extreme supply limited as lotteries are worse than anything before. This puts Q2 at a huge advantage going forward and even that might be limited supply. If that does happen then you can expect Q3 needs to have huge shipments to be put on store shelves and keep up with demand

Top 5 Q2 ever (3ds/NSW)

861k (3DS 2012)
671k (NSW 2020) <<<<< 4weeks left
626k (3DS 2013)
531k (NSW 2019)
484k (NSW 2018)

lastly, the evergreens you are hugely underestimating. Me and you both want our new games but your not looking at new consumers. Only us with NSW already. Ring fit and AC will keep hw numbers going (ring fit especially for normal NSW sky) and then there is all the other collection of evergreens that are piling up

Was meaning more globally, and while I doubt they'll fall short of 19m, even selling 20-21 million would be a big decline in momentum from where they are currently at; with the proper software they could hit 24-25 million. But old ports won't achieve that.