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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware May 17 to 23

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Are you going to keep giving me this obviously wrong argument?  If you are going to keep repeating yourself, then I suppose I will have to as well:

The arrival of the Genesis launched around the peak of NES sales in the US.  It didn't cut into NES sales, and their was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Genesis did not compete with the NES.  The SNES on the other hand....

The arrival of the PS1 launched while the SNES was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into SNES sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The PS1 did not compete with the SNES.  The N64 on the other hand....

The arrival of the XBox360 launched while the PS2 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS2 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The XBox360 did not compete with the PS2.  The PS3 on the other hand....

The arrival of the Switch launched while the PS4 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS4 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Switch did not compete with the PS4.  The PS5 on the other hand....

SNES/Genesis/PS1etc have nothing to do with Switch/PS4/PS5. You're too focused on trying to force past historical patterns onto a situation where they are not relevant.

Looking at the past for patterns is the basis of all of science and really education in general.  I mean, why even look at sales data?  Everyone on this site who studies sales data is looking for patterns.

You are now trying to argue some weird solipstic world view where we can't know anything based on studying patterns, and science is an illusion.  No one really believes this, even when they make this kind of argument.  It's the type of argument a person makes when they stay to themselves, "I know in my gut you are wrong, but I just have no idea why."

Perhaps you need to examine your own thinking?  Because you insist that a system (the Switch) either competes with both the PS4 and PS5 or competes with neither.  Can you give an example like this?  Do you think the XBox360 competed with both the PS2 and PS3 at the same time?  Can you give any example of one system that competed with two generations at the same time?  I can't.  That is why a system, the Switch, which doesn't compete with the PS4 can still compete with the PS5.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

SNES/Genesis/PS1etc have nothing to do with Switch/PS4/PS5. You're too focused on trying to force past historical patterns onto a situation where they are not relevant.

Looking at the past for patterns is the basis of all of science and really education in general.  I mean, why even look at sales data?  Everyone on this site who studies sales data is looking for patterns.

You are now trying to argue some weird solipstic world view where we can't know anything based on studying patterns, and science is an illusion.  No one really believes this, even when they make this kind of argument.  It's the type of argument a person makes when they stay to themselves, "I know in my gut you are wrong, but I just have no idea why."

Perhaps you need to examine your own thinking?  Because you insist that a system (the Switch) either competes with both the PS4 and PS5 or competes with neither.  Can you give an example like this?  Do you think the XBox360 competed with both the PS2 and PS3 at the same time?  Can you give any example of one system that competed with two generations at the same time?  I can't.  That is why a system, the Switch, which doesn't compete with the PS4 can still compete with the PS5.

I think the reasoning here is that the Switch won't compete directly with the PS4 or PS5 because it offers a different gaming experience, namely the portability aspect and first-party lineup.  Did the DS compete with and take sales from the PS3 or X360?  The 3DS from PS4/XB1?  I don't think so.  Likewise, the Switch can co-exist with Sony and Microsoft's consoles with very little sales effect either way.



SW-3707-5131-3911

kenjab said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Looking at the past for patterns is the basis of all of science and really education in general.  I mean, why even look at sales data?  Everyone on this site who studies sales data is looking for patterns.

You are now trying to argue some weird solipstic world view where we can't know anything based on studying patterns, and science is an illusion.  No one really believes this, even when they make this kind of argument.  It's the type of argument a person makes when they stay to themselves, "I know in my gut you are wrong, but I just have no idea why."

Perhaps you need to examine your own thinking?  Because you insist that a system (the Switch) either competes with both the PS4 and PS5 or competes with neither.  Can you give an example like this?  Do you think the XBox360 competed with both the PS2 and PS3 at the same time?  Can you give any example of one system that competed with two generations at the same time?  I can't.  That is why a system, the Switch, which doesn't compete with the PS4 can still compete with the PS5.

I think the reasoning here is that the Switch won't compete directly with the PS4 or PS5 because it offers a different gaming experience, namely the portability aspect and first-party lineup.  Did the DS compete with and take sales from the PS3 or X360?  The 3DS from PS4/XB1?  I don't think so.  Likewise, the Switch can co-exist with Sony and Microsoft's consoles with very little sales effect either way.

This is a decent argument.  I don't agree with it, but it's a decent argument, because there is at least some historical precedent there (on the surface).  It has it's own problems though which I won't get into here.

This wasn't curl-6's argument.  I only bring this up, because a person can't just argue whatever they want and hope to be right.  Sound reasoning leads to sound conclusions.  If a person wants to actually reach sound conclusions, then they need to be able to examine their own reasoning.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

SNES/Genesis/PS1etc have nothing to do with Switch/PS4/PS5. You're too focused on trying to force past historical patterns onto a situation where they are not relevant.

Looking at the past for patterns is the basis of all of science and really education in general.  I mean, why even look at sales data?  Everyone on this site who studies sales data is looking for patterns.

You are now trying to argue some weird solipstic world view where we can't know anything based on studying patterns, and science is an illusion.  No one really believes this, even when they make this kind of argument.  It's the type of argument a person makes when they stay to themselves, "I know in my gut you are wrong, but I just have no idea why."

Perhaps you need to examine your own thinking?  Because you insist that a system (the Switch) either competes with both the PS4 and PS5 or competes with neither.  Can you give an example like this?  Do you think the XBox360 competed with both the PS2 and PS3 at the same time?  Can you give any example of one system that competed with two generations at the same time?  I can't.  That is why a system, the Switch, which doesn't compete with the PS4 can still compete with the PS5.

That's the thing, the Switch does not have a historical precedent, because as a system it is unique. The behaviour of totally different systems in the past are not applicable to it.

The closest thing would be DS to PS2/PS3/360 or Gameboy to Megadrive/PS1/Saturn. It's still not quite apples to apples, but its the same basic matter of a system being so fundamentally different that it doesn't directly compete with either generation of other companies.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 02 June 2020

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Next week sales for PS4 will be below 200k, the system is sold out here in Australia, also in Japan and in some parts of the US.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

They're definitely not competing directly if that's what you mean; the sales show that. If they were the arrival and massive success of the Switch would've cut into PS4's sales, but that didn't happen. There's a lot of overlap between the two as well, with millions of people owning both.

The arrival of the Genesis launched around the peak of NES sales in the US.  It didn't cut into NES sales, and their was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Genesis did not compete with the NES.  The SNES on the other hand....

The arrival of the PS1 launched while the SNES was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into SNES sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The PS1 did not compete with the SNES.  The N64 on the other hand....

The arrival of the XBox360 launched while the PS2 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS2 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The XBox360 did not compete with the PS2.  The PS3 on the other hand....

The arrival of the Switch launched while the PS4 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS4 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Switch did not compete with the PS4.  The PS5 on the other hand....

One of the most absurd comparisons I've seen on this forum, would be the same as comparing the Nintendo DS with the Playstation 3. Nintendo started to focus on the portable market, definitely the Ps5 will not affect the sales of the Switch, especially in Japan and the US.
It's like seeing faces and objects in the clouds and thinking they are real, clearly forcing a pattern with the Switch.  


Moschegam said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The arrival of the Genesis launched around the peak of NES sales in the US.  It didn't cut into NES sales, and their was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Genesis did not compete with the NES.  The SNES on the other hand....

The arrival of the PS1 launched while the SNES was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into SNES sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The PS1 did not compete with the SNES.  The N64 on the other hand....

The arrival of the XBox360 launched while the PS2 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS2 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The XBox360 did not compete with the PS2.  The PS3 on the other hand....

The arrival of the Switch launched while the PS4 was still selling strong.  It didn't cut into PS4 sales and there was a lot of overlap between the two with millions owning both.  The Switch did not compete with the PS4.  The PS5 on the other hand....

One of the most absurd comparisons I've seen on this forum, would be the same as comparing the Nintendo DS with the Playstation 3. Nintendo started to focus on the portable market, definitely the Ps5 will not affect the sales of the Switch, especially in Japan and the US.
It's like seeing faces and objects in the clouds and thinking they are real, clearly forcing a pattern with the Switch.  

One of the most hyperbolic comments I've seen on the forum.  Switch can clearly be used as a home console.  That is why it applies.



curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Looking at the past for patterns is the basis of all of science and really education in general.  I mean, why even look at sales data?  Everyone on this site who studies sales data is looking for patterns.

You are now trying to argue some weird solipstic world view where we can't know anything based on studying patterns, and science is an illusion.  No one really believes this, even when they make this kind of argument.  It's the type of argument a person makes when they stay to themselves, "I know in my gut you are wrong, but I just have no idea why."

Perhaps you need to examine your own thinking?  Because you insist that a system (the Switch) either competes with both the PS4 and PS5 or competes with neither.  Can you give an example like this?  Do you think the XBox360 competed with both the PS2 and PS3 at the same time?  Can you give any example of one system that competed with two generations at the same time?  I can't.  That is why a system, the Switch, which doesn't compete with the PS4 can still compete with the PS5.

That's the thing, the Switch does not have a historical precedent, because as a system it is unique. The behaviour of totally different systems in the past are not applicable to it.

The closest thing would be DS to PS2/PS3/360 or Gameboy to Megadrive/PS1/Saturn. It's still not quite apples to apples, but its the same basic matter of a system being so fundamentally different that it doesn't directly compete with either generation of other companies.

It is unique in that it is a hybrid.  It appeals to both the home and handheld markets.  Nintendo doesn't have any competition in the handheld market, but it will have competition in the home console markets.  Therefore the PS5 and Series X will compete with the Switch.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

That's the thing, the Switch does not have a historical precedent, because as a system it is unique. The behaviour of totally different systems in the past are not applicable to it.

The closest thing would be DS to PS2/PS3/360 or Gameboy to Megadrive/PS1/Saturn. It's still not quite apples to apples, but its the same basic matter of a system being so fundamentally different that it doesn't directly compete with either generation of other companies.

It is unique in that it is a hybrid.  It appeals to both the home and handheld markets.  Nintendo doesn't have any competition in the handheld market, but it will have competition in the home console markets.  Therefore the PS5 and Series X will compete with the Switch.

It doesn't occupy anywhere near the same market niche though. PS5 will occupy the exact same market niche as PS4 did, distinct from Switch, so nothing will change there.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

It is unique in that it is a hybrid.  It appeals to both the home and handheld markets.  Nintendo doesn't have any competition in the handheld market, but it will have competition in the home console markets.  Therefore the PS5 and Series X will compete with the Switch.

It doesn't occupy anywhere near the same market niche though. PS5 will occupy the exact same market niche as PS4 did, distinct from Switch, so nothing will change there.

Do you think the N64 and PS1 were competing?  How about the Gamecube and PS2?  I think these systems were competing.  Playstation kept gaining marketshare with each generation while Nintendo was losing it.  They were competing.  What kind of games did Nintendo make during this era?  3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Animal Crossing, etc....  They were making the types of games that are selling the Switch right now.

PS5 and Switch do not occupy a different market niche.  They will compete over the same gamers just like the PS1 and N64 did.  They make the same type of games and therefore appeal to the same type of gamers.  They most definitely will compete. 

The main thing that has changed is that Nintendo has a lot more advantages this time around:
1) The franchises I listed above are much more popular on Switch.
2) Switch is a better value than a traditional home console, because it can be used as either a home or handheld system.
3) Switch has a much bigger third party library compared to N64 or Gamecube.
4) Switch will always be significantly cheaper than PS5, which is a huge advantage in a recession (like the one going on now).

Nintendo is making the same types of games that it has always used to compete against Playstation.  That is why it will compete against the PS5.  The main difference is that Nintendo is much more prepared for this contest, and that is why the Switch will prevail against the PS5.  Same competition.  Different victor.