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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Why Switch could be Nintendo's second most successful generation ever, based on software sales.

I believe the answer is yes, and quite easily.  It is often talked about that since Nintendo only has one hybrid device, they are still losing money when compared to other generations where they had both a dedicated home console and a handheld if it cannot match the hardware sales of both devices combined.  Well this simply does not seem to be the case.  Sure they will lose a little bit when it comes to per unit sold, but as we all know the bulk of a company's profit will come from software sales rather than hardware.

So the real question is actually will it sell as much or more SOFTWARE than previous generations, rather than can it match hardware sales.  The reason for this being that many people who bought one hardware, often also bought the other (like GC and GBA for example).  With the libraries not being shared, software was divided amongst the two platforms.  With the Switch however the same amount of households will have one with less total units sold, which leads to software sales potential being the same or greater due to a shared library for their console and handheld games.  Lets look at a few examples...

In the previous generation WiiU plus 3DS sold about 89 million in hardware, but only about 486 million in software.  The Switch alone, in half the time of the 3DS itself, is already at 356 million in software with little more than half the install base.  Given that the Switch will likely pass 100 mil within its life in hardware sales, this number will only continue to increase at a rate that makes it a safe bet to assume it will pass WiiU and 3DS.  This is obviously because while there is less hardware on the market, the software is no longer divided between two platforms.

Ah but I can hear some people now..."Why not compare it to Wii and DS!?"

Well the reason for that is the same reason people do not guage success for the PS4 based on the PS2 (though the specifics differ).  Due to timing and a lighting in a bottle strategy, many factors led to why the Wii and DS sold so much combined.  The software library was not only aimed at "core gamers" but also many very casual gamers that have since moved on to phone games.  This extra influx of consumers led to many more casual titles like Wii Fit and Wii Sports to sell in droves, which is the source of the inflates software sales.  Now there are other factors as well, but the point is clear to everyone at this point.  Much like we will never see PS2 numbers when it comes to home consoles, Wii/DS numbers combined will always remain out of reach.

So lets look at a few more then, software only as this is what the thread is really all about...

GC plus GBA = about 586 mil units

N64 plus GB = about 626 mil units

SNES plus GB = about 880 mil units

NES was by itself at = about 500 mil units

But wait, there is a bit more to it.  The Game Boy spanned 2 consecutive console cycles, so those two generations are not accurate at face value.  What we can do to get a rough idea however, is divid the GB's 501 units by how well it sold during each time period.  This puts the GB at 200 mil and 300 mil software units for SNES and N64 (rough estimate).  So in reality, it is more like...

N64 plus GB = 524 mil

SNES plus GB = 583 mil

So as you can see, if the Switch even passes 700 mil software units sold it will have successfully been more of a hit than EVERY generation of combined Nintendo handheld and console releases in terms of software sales (where most of the profit is found).  The only exception to this, is of course, Wii and DS.

So having said that, the fixation on whether or not Switch will match combined hardware sales of home and portable devices is null and void.  What really matters is the software sales, in which case Nintendo is more successful than ever with the Switch alone.  This also shows that without a shadow of a doubt, going with a hybrid device is perhaps the smartest decision they have ever made.

So what do you all think?  Will Switch pass 700 mil in total software sales and become Nintendo's second most successful generation, or will it fall short of that mark and why?  Personally I feel Switch will match what the Wii and DS did on their own, and break 900 mil or even a billion software units sold.

Source for sales data:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/

EDIT:

Corrected a mistake I made where I had GB split into the NES generation as well.  Thank you Conina for the correction and info!

Last edited by Shiken - on 24 May 2020

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Shiken said:

So lets look at a few more then, software only as this is what the thread is really all about...

GC plus GBA = about 586 mil units

N64 plus GB = about 626 mil units

SNES plus GB = about 880 mil units

NES plus GB = about 1001 mil units

But wait, there is a bit more to it.  The Game Boy spanned 3 consecutive console cycles, so those three generations are not accurate at face value.  What we can do to get a rough idea however, is divid the GB's 501 units by three.  This puts the GB at 167 software units per gen (rough estimate).  So in reality, it is more like...

N64 plus GB = 391 mil

SNES plus GB = 546 mil

NES plus GB = 667 mil

You shouldn't split the GB software sales evenly in three generations.

267 million GB games were sold in FY3/1998 and above, so ~300 million GB games were sold in the N64 era.

The GB software sales before the SNES launch are probably benign, so I would count 190 - 200 million GB games to the SNES era and ~300 million GB games to the N64 era.

922m Wii + 949m DS = 1871m

209m GC + 377m GBA = 586m

225m N64 + ~300m GB = 525m

379m SNES + ~190m GB = 569m

500m NES + ~11m GB = 511m

So 600m should be enough for Switch to be on second place, not 700m.

Last edited by Conina - on 24 May 2020

Conina said:
Shiken said:

So lets look at a few more then, software only as this is what the thread is really all about...

GC plus GBA = about 586 mil units

N64 plus GB = about 626 mil units

SNES plus GB = about 880 mil units

NES plus GB = about 1001 mil units

But wait, there is a bit more to it.  The Game Boy spanned 3 consecutive console cycles, so those three generations are not accurate at face value.  What we can do to get a rough idea however, is divid the GB's 501 units by three.  This puts the GB at 167 software units per gen (rough estimate).  So in reality, it is more like...

N64 plus GB = 391 mil

SNES plus GB = 546 mil

NES plus GB = 667 mil

You shouldn't split the GB software sales evenly in three generations.

267 million GB games were sold in FY3/1998 and above, so ~300 million GB games were sold in the N64 era.

The GB software sales before the SNES launch are probably benign, so I would count ~200 million GB games to the SNES era and ~300 million GB games to the N64 era.

N64 plus GB = 524 mil

SNES plus GB = 583 mil

NES = 500 mil

Thank you for that info, and this goes to further show what Nintendo's actual baseline is for software sales with combined platforms of each respective generation.  With a much more steady baseline, it highlights just how much of an anomaly the Wii and DS generation truly was as well.



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The Switch will be the second best selling generation for Nintendo, software-wise, there is absolutely no doubt about that. A huge success story.

BUT there is no beating around the bush that they remained with a single platform, so they are going forward in fairly uncharted territory. So the "null and void" part is neither null nor void. Nintendo had to transform in a certain way to survive, and sacrifices were made. Was it a good decision? Absolutely, for the time being.



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I think the Switch has a very good shot at becoming the first Nintendo console to break 1 billion games shipped, since it's currently a bit ahead of the DS aligned which had shipped 330 mil games after 3 years (end of 2007).
The Wii was way ahead with an absolutely ridicolous 510 mil in its first 3 years, but as we all know that ended up being quite front loaded. As things look now the Switch is more likely to follow a similair sales trend as the DS, and with many 1st party games having stronger legs than ever I think 1 bil is quite doable.

And yes that would indeed make it Nintendo's second most succesful generation and perhaps the Switch their most succesful singular system, even if it doesn't hit the hardware numbers of the DS.



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It definitely can and will. I'm guessing it will break 1B pieces of software sold as a single platform.



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Updated OP to correct the mistake I made with the Gameboy's respective generations, to make it easier for people just now jumping in to follow.



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How much of Wii software sales comes from bundled games?



RolStoppable said:
IcaroRibeiro said:
How much of Wii software sales comes from bundled games?

Rough estimate: 90-100m.

Wii hardware sold 101m lifetime, more than 12m in Japan where the console did usually not come with a bundled game. In other regions it was pretty standard that each Wii console came with one game, but at one point there was also a combo bundle that included both Wii Sports and its sequel Wii Sports Resort.

It's less than I expected, I was thinking in something over 200 mi tbh

But fine, I definitely see Switch outselling Wii and becoming the best software selling Nintendo home console if we remove bundles from the equation. Not sure about DS



Switch will very likely have the second best software sales of any generation behind Wii + DS.  However, the title also says, "second most successful generation ever".  It is actually possible that the Switch will be Nintendo's most profitable generation ever.

Think of it this way.  PS4 is not going to sell the same hardware as PS2, but PS4 is actually a lot more profitable than PS2.  Why?  Several factors.  1) Fewer price cuts to hardware.  2) Higher price point on physical software.  3) Digital only sales (including DLC).  4) Online subscriptions.

Switch actually has all of these advantages over both the DS and Wii.  When it comes to price point of software DS was typically $30 while Switch games are typically $60.  Also Switch has another advantage which is tie ratio.  Home consoles have a higher tie ratio than handhelds, which was apparent when comparing DS to Wii.  However Switch will likely have an even higher tie ratio than the Wii, because core gamers tend to buy more games.  Switch sales aren't targeted to new gamers like the Wii Sports and Wii Fit games.  Switch sales are targeted towards core gamers, so they are going to buy more games on average compared to Wii gamers.

We know that DS and Wii had some amazing profit numbers, but Switch's most profitable years are still to come.  Peak profits tend to come a couple of years or so after peak hardware sales.  Nintendo just posted some very impressive profits for the past fiscal year, but that is still small compared to what is about to come.  Switch could very well be Nintendo's most profitable generation.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 24 May 2020