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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Why Switch could be Nintendo's second most successful generation ever, based on software sales.

IcaroRibeiro said:
How much of Wii software sales comes from bundled games?

Rough estimate: 90-100m.

Wii hardware sold 101m lifetime, more than 12m in Japan where the console did usually not come with a bundled game. In other regions it was pretty standard that each Wii console came with one game, but at one point there was also a combo bundle that included both Wii Sports and its sequel Wii Sports Resort.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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RolStoppable said:
IcaroRibeiro said:
How much of Wii software sales comes from bundled games?

Rough estimate: 90-100m.

Wii hardware sold 101m lifetime, more than 12m in Japan where the console did usually not come with a bundled game. In other regions it was pretty standard that each Wii console came with one game, but at one point there was also a combo bundle that included both Wii Sports and its sequel Wii Sports Resort.

It's less than I expected, I was thinking in something over 200 mi tbh

But fine, I definitely see Switch outselling Wii and becoming the best software selling Nintendo home console if we remove bundles from the equation. Not sure about DS



I can definitely see the system selling over 800 million in software based materials, though difficult to say if it'll reach the 1 billion threshold. I mean, most the important games are full priced titles which might endanger such a milestone to be reached.

On the other hand, it would make this accomplishment even more gratifying since they wouldn't have to cheapen their software to attain the goal.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Switch will very likely have the second best software sales of any generation behind Wii + DS.  However, the title also says, "second most successful generation ever".  It is actually possible that the Switch will be Nintendo's most profitable generation ever.

Think of it this way.  PS4 is not going to sell the same hardware as PS2, but PS4 is actually a lot more profitable than PS2.  Why?  Several factors.  1) Fewer price cuts to hardware.  2) Higher price point on physical software.  3) Digital only sales (including DLC).  4) Online subscriptions.

Switch actually has all of these advantages over both the DS and Wii.  When it comes to price point of software DS was typically $30 while Switch games are typically $60.  Also Switch has another advantage which is tie ratio.  Home consoles have a higher tie ratio than handhelds, which was apparent when comparing DS to Wii.  However Switch will likely have an even higher tie ratio than the Wii, because core gamers tend to buy more games.  Switch sales aren't targeted to new gamers like the Wii Sports and Wii Fit games.  Switch sales are targeted towards core gamers, so they are going to buy more games on average compared to Wii gamers.

We know that DS and Wii had some amazing profit numbers, but Switch's most profitable years are still to come.  Peak profits tend to come a couple of years or so after peak hardware sales.  Nintendo just posted some very impressive profits for the past fiscal year, but that is still small compared to what is about to come.  Switch could very well be Nintendo's most profitable generation.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 24 May 2020

It will sell a lot, but it HAD the potential to sell way more and even be number 1. Which is a shame as the Switch is a great console.

The piss poor efforts from third parties with their half games and digital codes only has meant that people like me who collect a lot of physical media games, have significantly reduced our purchasing.

There is at least 30 additional games I would have owned already if the full game come on the physical medium. Crapcom an 2K are the worst at it.



 

 

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If we're talking physical game sales only (which we seem to be), Switch will likely not touch 1 billion. Think of it. The Switch will probably sell 100-110 million units. That's a software tie ratio of about 10-9. I don't see most Switch owners reaching that threshold, especially only including physical games. Switch will very much hit 700 million, as its already over halfway there. Also keep in mind that we'll get at least 250-300 more physical Switch games in its lifetime. I'll predict 750 million software sales.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:
If we're talking physical game sales only (which we seem to be), Switch will likely not touch 1 billion. Think of it. The Switch will probably sell 100-110 million units. That's a software tie ratio of about 10-9. I don't see most Switch owners reaching that threshold, especially only including physical games. Switch will very much hit 700 million, as its already over halfway there. Also keep in mind that we'll get at least 250-300 more physical Switch games in its lifetime. I'll predict 750 million software sales.

The software number is physical games plus their respective digital version. Only digital-only software is excluded from the total.

Here's Switch tie ratio growth by quarter since its launch, the bolded numbers represent the quarters that ended on December 31st:

1,99
2,89
3,60
3,54
3,88
4,42
4,86
5,07
5,40
5,70
5,90
5,92
6,39

There's steady growth outside of the holiday quarter and the tie ratio is at 6.39 by March 31st 2020. The reason why the holiday quarter doesn't do hot is because a lot of the sold hardware is for the purpose of Christmas gift-giving where one or two games for such a console are sufficient; people won't go out and buy an additional game in the only week that is left after Christmas for this particular quarter.

A lifetime tie ratio of 9-10 is well within reach for Switch. On top of that, lifetime hardware sales of 100-110m are a very conservative expectation to have. Nintendo would have to cut Switch's life short in order to make Switch fall short of 1 billion in software sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Switch will be the first Nintendo system with 1B pieces of software sold IMO.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!