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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Next gen PS5/XB1SX sales ratio will look the same as this gen's. Huge changes in console marketshare require huge changes in the industry.

smroadkill15 on 13 May 2020
Runa216 said:
I was going to write up another reply to Rol and Sales person, but I realized...their revisionist history is at odds with reality and no amount of arguing is going to make them concede the point. I don't expect them to agree with me, but If we're not even adhering to the same flow of time and see history from a completely different perspective than what is real, then there's no way this can be a fruitful discussion.

Rol, your assertion that 'exclusives' are the least important of the factors you listed is just so wrong I don't even know where to start.

Sales, your revisionist history where you're passing the buck and saying 'nuh uh, what you say Xbox does...well Sony does it' is also not really in line with what really happened or how history went. I also need to point out that my example of Rare was simply the progenitor to the problem Microsoft has. they acquire studios and do nothing with them. They did it with Rare and have not changed their tone ever since then. when was the last time a Microsoft helmed studio made something as epic and groundbreaking as Banjo Kazooie? When was the last time we had high quality middle-tier exclusives on Xbox? we just haven't in ages. That's my point.

Seriously, get with reality. I get that you have your preferences - we all do - but you can't just disregard everything about history in order to fuel your faulty narrative. Regardless of personal preferences, the sales history of these two companies speak a wholly different story than the one you're trying to tell.

You're assertion MS won't do anything with the newly acquired studios is simply wrong. These new studios wouldn't be snagging up talented devs from all over if they weren't going to do anything. Playgrounds new RPG is rumored to be shown this year, along with The Initiatives new game, Everwild from Rare, Hellblade 2 from Ninja Theory. Obsidian is hard at work on a new AAA RPG, Outer Worlds 2, and Grounded. Inxile is working on a large scale RPG, along with everything else. Don't worry though, come July when MS has their showcase of 1st party games, you'll see a bunch of stuff they have been working on. Using Banjo, a game not even originally an xbox game, as their apex of games, it just strange. Halo and Gears are just as impactful. Sea of Thieves has turned into one of Rares most successful games. 

Basing everything off of mistakes Xbox made in the past, doesn't change what MS has accomplished the last couple years to really make some headway into next generation. 



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kirby007 on 13 May 2020

I agreed, you still have people buying apple products to this day



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hiccupthehuman on 13 May 2020
Runa216 said:
sales2099 said:

No way this gens market share will be the same. PS5 will still win but by a lesser margin. How much we have to see.

Xbox won’t start with a crippling brand image, no mandatory peripheral, the rumoured $300 Xbox will undercut PS unlike Xbox One being $100 more, Series X has better specs on paper then PS5 unlike XB1, and their first party studios are really beefed up. And with all this you think Xbox will only sell 50 million lifetime? Lol cmon.

But despite all this, you mentioned huge changes in the industry. Xbox is moving away from just consoles and is becoming a ecosystem. If MS plays their cards right they don’t have to sell more consoles to have a more popular brand. Everybody on PC playing a Xbox first party studio game is part of Xbox. I mean their PCs run on MS operating systems just like Xbox might as well come full circle and give them Xbox games too. Game Pass, Xcloud especially if that takes off. I know Xbox won’t win conventionally, and that’s the point. MS changing the rules if they do it well. 

Do you even live in the same world as the rest of us? I mean...no crippling brand image? Are you okay? Microsoft has been the laughing stock of the industry since the Xbox One's launch in 2013. No games, no exclusives, and all this talk of 'more power' in the OneX model did nothing, Sony still beats them senseless and they continue to give less and less of a reason to get an Xbox by putting all their exclusives and features on PC/Switch. They have nothing but the power, and history proves that Raw Power has virtually no impact on game or console sales. The most powerful console never wins their generation. PS4 was bested by Xbox OneX, Wii won that generation over two far superior consoles, PS2 was the weakest of the three of that generation. I don't actually know which was stronger between PS1 and N64, but the point is that, historically, the most powerful console doesn't get a significant boost. 

Nothing in the last seven years indicates any change in momentum for Microsoft. They're putting out exclusives at a slower rate than ever before, and all we're getting is a dozen rapid-fire promises and attempts to strong-arm the competition by buying smaller companies. All the promises in the world mean nothing if they've consistently failed and fell short over the last decade or so. (Seriously, I think 2009 was the last time Xbox was on top of anything)

Microsoft has been the laughing stock of *some Internet fanboys*. Just fixed that 1 line.

I don't understand why Internet fanboys claim that Xbox is the laughing stock of the industry, when they don't work for or know anybody in the industry.

Maybe you personally don't like the brand, and that's fine, but "the laughing stock of the industry" is kind of a pet peeve of mine. Are we talking about the brand that every single major 3rd party publisher develops for? Even now very few Japanese devs avoid skipping it. A brand that is worth billions of dollars in revenue. A brand that's offering the best value in services in gaming? True they'll likely be in third place again, but a laughing stock? Come on now. Give a little respect lol.



smroadkill15 on 13 May 2020

Cerebralbore101 said:
shikamaru317 said:


-People thought Microsoft's 1st party was weak, they have been expanding it substantially, with 9 new studios so far (Playground 1 and 2, Obsidian, inXile, Undead Labs, Compulsion, Double Fine, Ninja Theory, and The Initiative), 5-6 of which will have teams developing AAA games when they finish expanding them, and they have also been on hiring sprees at some of their older studios to improve the scale of the games they build. Microsoft claims their eventual goal is to release 4 AAA games per year between 1st party and 2nd party, with quite a few yearly A and AA games as well. The goal is to have a steady stream of exclusive content rolling in.

Playground makes Forza, so nothing changes there. Along with the Fable game rumored to be shown this year. 

Obsidian should deliver at least 2 excellent exclusives to XB2. All it takes is 1 excellent games to get people talking. 

While I have Wasteland 2 on my wishlist, I think inXile is a very hit or miss type of game developer. They either make great games, or make junk. A AAA RPG in the works and Wasteland 3 is releasing this year. They have some good stuff going on. 

Undead Labs has been making games for them since 360 so nothing changes there. Probably the least exciting out of all the other acquisitions. State of Decay 2 is still very popular and they've added a bunch of content to the game post launch. 

Compulsion games? The We Happy Few Devs? I'm sorry, but they suck. We Happy Few was a few changes away from being a great game. I wouldn't sleep on them. 

Doublefine hasn't made anything good since 2009's Brutal Legend. I'm afraid they are another studio past its prime, like Rare. Psychonauts 2 is releasing this year and it looks great! 

Ninja Theory's Senua 2 should be excellent. Their other games like Razor's Edge on the other hand... Along with project Mara.

Isn't the Initiative a whole new studio with no track record? Working on the rumored Perfect dark game. Will be shown this year.

I think you forgot Relic Entertainment, which I think is a pretty strong studio. Their games are at least on par with stuff like Yoshi's Whooly World and Kirby Star Allies. But nothing to buy a console over IMO. 

So the only really compelling studios they've added are Obsidian, and Ninja Theory. But that's just my own opinion. Maybe other people are super hyped for some of these other studios. Just saying I'm not. 



Runa216 on 13 May 2020
smroadkill15 said:
Runa216 said:
I was going to write up another reply to Rol and Sales person, but I realized...their revisionist history is at odds with reality and no amount of arguing is going to make them concede the point. I don't expect them to agree with me, but If we're not even adhering to the same flow of time and see history from a completely different perspective than what is real, then there's no way this can be a fruitful discussion.

Rol, your assertion that 'exclusives' are the least important of the factors you listed is just so wrong I don't even know where to start.

Sales, your revisionist history where you're passing the buck and saying 'nuh uh, what you say Xbox does...well Sony does it' is also not really in line with what really happened or how history went. I also need to point out that my example of Rare was simply the progenitor to the problem Microsoft has. they acquire studios and do nothing with them. They did it with Rare and have not changed their tone ever since then. when was the last time a Microsoft helmed studio made something as epic and groundbreaking as Banjo Kazooie? When was the last time we had high quality middle-tier exclusives on Xbox? we just haven't in ages. That's my point.

Seriously, get with reality. I get that you have your preferences - we all do - but you can't just disregard everything about history in order to fuel your faulty narrative. Regardless of personal preferences, the sales history of these two companies speak a wholly different story than the one you're trying to tell.

You're assertion MS won't do anything with the newly acquired studios is simply wrong. These new studios wouldn't be snagging up talented devs from all over if they weren't going to do anything. Playgrounds new RPG is rumored to be shown this year, along with The Initiatives new game, Everwild from Rare, Hellblade 2 from Ninja Theory. Obsidian is hard at work on a new AAA RPG, Outer Worlds 2, and Grounded. Inxile is working on a large scale RPG, along with everything else. Don't worry though, come July when MS has their showcase of 1st party games, you'll see a bunch of stuff they have been working on. Using Banjo, a game not even originally an xbox game, as their apex of games, it just strange. Halo and Gears are just as impactful. Sea of Thieves has turned into one of Rares most successful games. 

Basing everything off of mistakes Xbox made in the past, doesn't change what MS has accomplished the last couple years to really make some headway into next generation. 

Your assertion that I made an assertion at all is wrong. I'm not saying they WON'T do anything, I'm saying they HAVEN'T and nothing in the past 10+ years gives me faith that they will. My stance is simply that nothing Microsoft has done in the past decade has given me the impression that the next generation will be any different. 

Hell, even at launch I'm getting a very 'frontloaded' vibe from them. Plenty of stuff for the first year, but again, after the last three generations I have no faith they'll keep up that pace. historically, they don't. 



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Cerebralbore101 on 13 May 2020
smroadkill15 said:
Runa216 said:
I was going to write up another reply to Rol and Sales person, but I realized...their revisionist history is at odds with reality and no amount of arguing is going to make them concede the point. I don't expect them to agree with me, but If we're not even adhering to the same flow of time and see history from a completely different perspective than what is real, then there's no way this can be a fruitful discussion.

Rol, your assertion that 'exclusives' are the least important of the factors you listed is just so wrong I don't even know where to start.

Sales, your revisionist history where you're passing the buck and saying 'nuh uh, what you say Xbox does...well Sony does it' is also not really in line with what really happened or how history went. I also need to point out that my example of Rare was simply the progenitor to the problem Microsoft has. they acquire studios and do nothing with them. They did it with Rare and have not changed their tone ever since then. when was the last time a Microsoft helmed studio made something as epic and groundbreaking as Banjo Kazooie? When was the last time we had high quality middle-tier exclusives on Xbox? we just haven't in ages. That's my point.

Seriously, get with reality. I get that you have your preferences - we all do - but you can't just disregard everything about history in order to fuel your faulty narrative. Regardless of personal preferences, the sales history of these two companies speak a wholly different story than the one you're trying to tell.

You're assertion MS won't do anything with the newly acquired studios is simply wrong. These new studios wouldn't be snagging up talented devs from all over if they weren't going to do anything. Playgrounds new RPG is rumored to be shown this year, along with The Initiatives new game, Everwild from Rare, Hellblade 2 from Ninja Theory. Obsidian is hard at work on a new AAA RPG, Outer Worlds 2, and Grounded. Inxile is working on a large scale RPG, along with everything else. Don't worry though, come July when MS has their showcase of 1st party games, you'll see a bunch of stuff they have been working on. Using Banjo, a game not even originally an xbox game, as their apex of games, it just strange. Halo and Gears are just as impactful. Sea of Thieves has turned into one of Rares most successful games. 

Basing everything off of mistakes Xbox made in the past, doesn't change what MS has accomplished the last couple years to really make some headway into next generation. 

All those bolded games being hyped up remind me so much of the Vita's 1st party lineup being hyped up. Games I had never heard of, games from studios without much of a good track record. Games that would also be available on another platform (PS4 in Vita's case, PC in XB2's case). I remember arguing with Sony hardcores over whether or not Vita would have a lineup to compete with 3DS. They continually grasped at straws, pinning their hopes on the most unknown, unproven studios. Here we see the same thing. History repeats itself I guess. 



Cerebralbore101 on 13 May 2020
Pemalite said:
newwil7l said:

And I'm saying its pretty disingenuous to give the win to PS3 when talking about PS3 vs 360, when they sold within 2m of each other. 

It is well within a margin of error.

People buying (or being given for free, and then counted as a sale) a 2nd Xbox because their first one RROD, or because they wanted to avoid RROD with a new model, is at least 2.5 times that margin of error. Just a thought. 

RolStoppable said:
That's a premature and perplexing prediction. There are still key pieces of information missing for both the PS5 and XSX, but one major change we already know about is that Microsoft is not self-destructing this time around; this lack of self-destruction also comes with the benefit of being set to have the more powerful console. The most important thing in the competition between Sony and Microsoft is who is becoming the console of choice for multiplats, because those games are the biggest sales drivers for both companies.

When Microsoft can keep it reasonably close in the USA despite their massive blunders (the PS4 sold only ~5m more than the XB1 through six years), then it should be clear that the US market is going to choose XSX over PS5 if both consoles are about equal. If the XSX costs the same as the PS5 while being more powerful, you can expect an even bigger shift. Let's go with that and assume that Microsoft takes 10m of Sony's sales in the USA. The final ratio between the PS4 and XB1 will be roughly 2.5:1 in favor of the PS4 (~125m vs. ~50m). If next gen sees 115m PS5s and 60m Xboxes sold, then that's a ratio of under 2:1 in favor of Sony. That's a signficant change in ratio despite only a small change in console sales, so this thread is silly at best.

The more powerful console almost always loses, and almost always isn't the console of choice for multiplats. You know this as well as I do. 

So is that your official prediction, given what we know now? 125m PS4s vs 50m XB1s, and 115m PS5s vs 60m XB2s? If so that's a change of 5.78% in marketshare over current gen. That is things pretty much remaining the same in the overall console marketshare picture. I would consider such an outcome to be a massive vindication of this thread's OP. 



hiccupthehuman on 13 May 2020

I honestly both see Xbox and PlayStation doing even better numbers than this gen, simply because I think this gen will be the last and will go on "forever". I don't think there will be a PS6 or a different Xbox after Series X. People love to rag on Stadia, but honestly? The tech is there, and it works. It's just that Stadia is barely supported by 3rd party, has no 1P games, has no established fanbase and no major marketing. Things will be different for PlayStation and Xbox when they make moves towards streaming, and they have. By 2030, streaming will be a major core of their gaming businesses.

On the console space, Sony and MS will just release incremental models: Like PS5 Pro, then PS5 Pro 2; Xbox Series X2, then Xbox Series X3. They started with this model this gen, and it will also implemented even further next-gen. In fact, that's why MS chose just Xbox as an umbrella term for all their next consoles. Meanwhile, the head of PS was already unsure if there was going to be a PS5 way back in 2016.
https://www.ign.com/articles/2016/04/20/shuhei-yoshida-reportedly-unsure-if-there-will-be-a-ps5

I'm not saying consoles will die off, what I'm saying is that by 2030, if you want to play a game, you'll have the choice to buy a PS5, Xbox, etc or just stream it. If you choose to buy that PS5 or Xbox, you will essentially just buy an upgraded version from the ones that will release this fall. The same goes for the Switch. What could Nintendo do next? They found their best winning formula ever. All they can do is just maintain it, and just release improved versions. They're not ever gonna just do something completely different for a next-gen where they run the risk of finding themselves with another GameCube or WiiU.

So, considering that this gen will be on store shelves for essentially ever, both will have very high sales. Will the ratio stay at 2.xx? I don't know. PS will probably sell more, but I think Xbox will do much better than this gen around and the ratio will be smaller, like maybe at 1.5. This time around, MS has been marketing the Xbox Series X the same way as the Xbox 360 in its early days. It's that demographics they're going after first and foremost: to regain that fanbase from the 360 and then build off from there.



Cerebralbore101 on 13 May 2020
NightlyPoe said:
Cerebralbore101 said:

People buying (or being given for free, and then counted as a sale) a 2nd Xbox because their first one RROD, or because they wanted to avoid RROD with a new model, is at least 2.5 times that margin of error. Just a thought. 

Are you seriously arguing that the red ring of death was a sales positive for the 360?

Yes. Imagine you are halfway into the 360/PS3 generation. You've already got ten-twenty 360 games. Then your 360 RRODs. Are you seriously going to buy a PS3, and all those games over again? Or just eat your loss, and buy another 360? 



sales2099 on 13 May 2020
Runa216 said:
I was going to write up another reply to Rol and Sales person, but I realized...their revisionist history is at odds with reality and no amount of arguing is going to make them concede the point. I don't expect them to agree with me, but If we're not even adhering to the same flow of time and see history from a completely different perspective than what is real, then there's no way this can be a fruitful discussion.

Rol, your assertion that 'exclusives' are the least important of the factors you listed is just so wrong I don't even know where to start.

Sales, your revisionist history where you're passing the buck and saying 'nuh uh, what you say Xbox does...well Sony does it' is also not really in line with what really happened or how history went. I also need to point out that my example of Rare was simply the progenitor to the problem Microsoft has. they acquire studios and do nothing with them. They did it with Rare and have not changed their tone ever since then. when was the last time a Microsoft helmed studio made something as epic and groundbreaking as Banjo Kazooie? When was the last time we had high quality middle-tier exclusives on Xbox? we just haven't in ages. That's my point.

Seriously, get with reality. I get that you have your preferences - we all do - but you can't just disregard everything about history in order to fuel your faulty narrative. Regardless of personal preferences, the sales history of these two companies speak a wholly different story than the one you're trying to tell.

Ah the ol console wars retreat, paving the way for an endless cycle of war of ideas. I said so many things and you just mentally block it out and say it’s revisionism....that’s weak. Bet you won’t even bother to see their studios and what they got cooking, you prefer to just live in the past. It’s literally the first page of Xbox Empire on here! Lol 

Sorry but the gamers push the power narrative onto Sony...why you think Sony put their name on the Unreal 5 demo??? Because the power narrative matters and they are giving their fans what they want: that juicy narrative kept from 2006-2017. So don’t complain when MS takes it away but “oh no, I don’t like the way they market it”. It’s a double standard, plain and simple. 

Lately, I really enjoyed Forza Horizon 4 and Gears 5. Two solid games under their helm. Sea of Thieves has truly turned into something special with constant updates and a following more dedicated since the N64 days. Outer Worlds is a promising new IP and while not officially under MS, they did own Obsidian when the game released and own the rights going forward. Not all doom and gloom. 

You right in that exclusives do have their place, I await your reaction come July. And I don’t think Sony has anything that can touch Halo Infinite at launch. 

Last edited by sales2099 - on 13 May 2020

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