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Forums - Sales Discussion - Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 11.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 11.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 17.5 million 69 6.87%
 
17.5 - 20.0 million 126 12.55%
 
20.1 - 22.5 million 146 14.54%
 
22.6 - 25.0 million 163 16.24%
 
25.1 - 27.5 million 144 14.34%
 
27.6 - 30.0 million 106 10.56%
 
30.1 - 32.5 million 97 9.66%
 
32.6 - 35.0 million 40 3.98%
 
35.1 - 40.0 million 35 3.49%
 
More than 40 million 78 7.77%
 
Total:1,004

Really difficult to say. Animal crossing titles usually depend on legendary legs but this time, the launch period has literally blown all the other AC games out of the water! Will the launch sales ultimately affect the legs? If not, possibly upwards of 40m. If so, then probably we should still expect around 28m+. I'll say somewhere in the middle, so around 34m LT.



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30M+ for sure but I have no idea how far it will go. Depends a lot on the updates that Nintendo has planned I think.



Also lol@ the almost 20% that voted less than 20M. I would like to know their reasoning behind that answer.



I feel anyone doubting 30m at this point is deluding themselves. This had the biggest Nintendo launch in history and will have strong evergreen legs to boot.

Thinking 35m atm.



Marth said:
Also lol@ the almost 20% that voted less than 20M. I would like to know their reasoning behind that answer.

And I would like to know why nobody answers the bonus question in this thread.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

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30.1 - 32.5 million. I know the launch has be insane, and higher numbers are certainly possible. But unless Nintendo starts to bundle it with Switch consoles, I don't see it reaching Super Mario Bros. levels (40 million plus).

As for the bonus question. Yes, it does bug me (pun intended). Games need to be as polished and complete as possible when launching. I don't see how Art and Crazy Redd took over a month after the game launched. Thankfully, I haven't experienced any glitches, though.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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RolStoppable said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:
While it is a bit early I could easily see it doing 35 mil+ lifetime.
Honestly think the poll should have been shifted a bit higher since the game is likely to already be closing in on 17,5 mil in the next quarterly report juding by the sell-through number.

I thought the same thing about the poll after the first five votes had been casted. Adjusted "more than 35m" to a 35.1-40m range and added a tenth option to vote for 40m+.

As for the low end options, I don't discriminate against trolls.

haha yeah and apparently as of now like ~47% of the votes are from trolls who say its gonna do under 25 million. That seems high though. Maybe some people just really haven't thought it through.

I voted the 30.1 - 32.5 option. I could see it finishing just under 30 million, but I do think it'll probably barely pass 30 million but not get close to 35mil.

Let's see 2020 20mil, 2021 25mil, 2022 28mil, 2023, 30mil, 2024, 31mil yeah that sounds about right.



tbone51 said:
I’ll go 38mil lifetime, it’ll keep on selling for years and I’m predicting BotW doing 35mil so I have no choice.

Q1: 11.77mil
Q2: 19.3mil
Q3: 21.1mil
Q4: 24.9mil (end of year)

haha bold as always. So lemme get this straight. After selling 1.64mil in April you think its gonna sell another 5.89mil this quarter, averaging 2.94mil in May and June. wow! Totaling 2.94 for May and June would be great and I could see it getting close to that but doing that much each month is, well, beyond even a tbone-like prediction! You may as well say it's gonna sell 50 million lifetime.



Slownenberg said:
RolStoppable said:

I thought the same thing about the poll after the first five votes had been casted. Adjusted "more than 35m" to a 35.1-40m range and added a tenth option to vote for 40m+.

As for the low end options, I don't discriminate against trolls.

haha yeah and apparently as of now like ~47% of the votes are from trolls who say its gonna do under 25 million. That seems high though. Maybe some people just really haven't thought it through.

I voted the 30.1 - 32.5 option. I could see it finishing just under 30 million, but I do think it'll probably barely pass 30 million but not get close to 35mil.

Let's see 2020 20mil, 2021 25mil, 2022 28mil, 2023, 30mil, 2024, 31mil yeah that sounds about right.

The majority of votes is coming from people who don't read the forums, so it's understandable that they wouldn't be aware of how sales develop over time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Slownenberg said:
tbone51 said:
I’ll go 38mil lifetime, it’ll keep on selling for years and I’m predicting BotW doing 35mil so I have no choice.

Q1: 11.77mil
Q2: 19.3mil
Q3: 21.1mil
Q4: 24.9mil (end of year)

haha bold as always. So lemme get this straight. After selling 1.64mil in April you think its gonna sell another 5.89mil this quarter, averaging 2.94mil in May and June. wow! Totaling 2.94 for May and June would be great and I could see it getting close to that but doing that much each month is, well, beyond even a tbone-like prediction! You may as well say it's gonna sell 50 million lifetime.

11.77mil was shipped+digital, so let’s say 11.30mil was sell thru since most places were sold out, 13.41mil is missing some sales as people discussed. Said to be 10-15% missing so let’s go with a conservative 10% (Canada/South America/Asia outside of Japan missing in this figure) that would total up to about 14.75mil sell thru. That’s actually more like an estimate of 3mil selling with 1mil on store shelves or more roughly 16mil. May+June could have an extra 3mil for ship and digital.

18mil sound more like the safe bet but I’ll go with 19.5mil