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Forums - Sales Discussion - Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 11.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 11.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 17.5 million 69 6.87%
 
17.5 - 20.0 million 126 12.55%
 
20.1 - 22.5 million 146 14.54%
 
22.6 - 25.0 million 163 16.24%
 
25.1 - 27.5 million 144 14.34%
 
27.6 - 30.0 million 106 10.56%
 
30.1 - 32.5 million 97 9.66%
 
32.6 - 35.0 million 40 3.98%
 
35.1 - 40.0 million 35 3.49%
 
More than 40 million 78 7.77%
 
Total:1,004

30.1 - 32.5 million. I know the launch has be insane, and higher numbers are certainly possible. But unless Nintendo starts to bundle it with Switch consoles, I don't see it reaching Super Mario Bros. levels (40 million plus).

As for the bonus question. Yes, it does bug me (pun intended). Games need to be as polished and complete as possible when launching. I don't see how Art and Crazy Redd took over a month after the game launched. Thankfully, I haven't experienced any glitches, though.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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RolStoppable said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:
While it is a bit early I could easily see it doing 35 mil+ lifetime.
Honestly think the poll should have been shifted a bit higher since the game is likely to already be closing in on 17,5 mil in the next quarterly report juding by the sell-through number.

I thought the same thing about the poll after the first five votes had been casted. Adjusted "more than 35m" to a 35.1-40m range and added a tenth option to vote for 40m+.

As for the low end options, I don't discriminate against trolls.

haha yeah and apparently as of now like ~47% of the votes are from trolls who say its gonna do under 25 million. That seems high though. Maybe some people just really haven't thought it through.

I voted the 30.1 - 32.5 option. I could see it finishing just under 30 million, but I do think it'll probably barely pass 30 million but not get close to 35mil.

Let's see 2020 20mil, 2021 25mil, 2022 28mil, 2023, 30mil, 2024, 31mil yeah that sounds about right.



tbone51 said:
I’ll go 38mil lifetime, it’ll keep on selling for years and I’m predicting BotW doing 35mil so I have no choice.

Q1: 11.77mil
Q2: 19.3mil
Q3: 21.1mil
Q4: 24.9mil (end of year)

haha bold as always. So lemme get this straight. After selling 1.64mil in April you think its gonna sell another 5.89mil this quarter, averaging 2.94mil in May and June. wow! Totaling 2.94 for May and June would be great and I could see it getting close to that but doing that much each month is, well, beyond even a tbone-like prediction! You may as well say it's gonna sell 50 million lifetime.



Slownenberg said:
tbone51 said:
I’ll go 38mil lifetime, it’ll keep on selling for years and I’m predicting BotW doing 35mil so I have no choice.

Q1: 11.77mil
Q2: 19.3mil
Q3: 21.1mil
Q4: 24.9mil (end of year)

haha bold as always. So lemme get this straight. After selling 1.64mil in April you think its gonna sell another 5.89mil this quarter, averaging 2.94mil in May and June. wow! Totaling 2.94 for May and June would be great and I could see it getting close to that but doing that much each month is, well, beyond even a tbone-like prediction! You may as well say it's gonna sell 50 million lifetime.

11.77mil was shipped+digital, so let’s say 11.30mil was sell thru since most places were sold out, 13.41mil is missing some sales as people discussed. Said to be 10-15% missing so let’s go with a conservative 10% (Canada/South America/Asia outside of Japan missing in this figure) that would total up to about 14.75mil sell thru. That’s actually more like an estimate of 3mil selling with 1mil on store shelves or more roughly 16mil. May+June could have an extra 3mil for ship and digital.

18mil sound more like the safe bet but I’ll go with 19.5mil



I'll just toss out a number and say 32 million lifetime (maybe more if Nintendo ever bundles the game with the Switch at some point). It does not make me upset that a supposedly buggy game is selling massively well, it seems overall the game is well received by most despite whatever flaws it may have, the sales and reviews seem to support that.



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I'll go boldly where no @tbone51  has ever been before and say 40M+

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 11 May 2020

tbone51 said:
Slownenberg said:

haha bold as always. So lemme get this straight. After selling 1.64mil in April you think its gonna sell another 5.89mil this quarter, averaging 2.94mil in May and June. wow! Totaling 2.94 for May and June would be great and I could see it getting close to that but doing that much each month is, well, beyond even a tbone-like prediction! You may as well say it's gonna sell 50 million lifetime.

11.77mil was shipped+digital, so let’s say 11.30mil was sell thru since most places were sold out, 13.41mil is missing some sales as people discussed. Said to be 10-15% missing so let’s go with a conservative 10% (Canada/South America/Asia outside of Japan missing in this figure) that would total up to about 14.75mil sell thru. That’s actually more like an estimate of 3mil selling with 1mil on store shelves or more roughly 16mil. May+June could have an extra 3mil for ship and digital.

18mil sound more like the safe bet but I’ll go with 19.5mil

What sales are missing? I didn't see anything about that? Why would the official Nintendo numbers have sales missing? You got a link or something where Nintendo says their official numbers don't include some regions?



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I'll go boldly where no @tbone51  has ever been before and say 40M+

51mil..... I’m kidding... unless NSW life cycle is long as hell and AC sells over 40mil :P



I'm guessing the OP's bonus question is regarding the bugs you CATCH in the game, rather than any game breaking/annoying bugs.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Hard to do a projection off of 6 weeks of data.  Also, a year ago I didn't think AC had a chance of outselling Pokemon, so I really don't have a good sense of how popular AC really is other than my daughter and several of her friends have the game.  I went ahead and voted 40m+, because AC ususally has really good legs and this is on a system where it's now common for titles to smash sales expectations.

As for bugs, I didn't even know this was an issue.  The only issue I was aware of was the whole 1 island per system thing.