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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Early Predictions: PS5 - XSX Gap + Combined sales.

 

Early Predictions: PS5 - XSX Gap + Combined sales.

PS5 wins more biglyer. Overall sales up. 6 15.38%
 
PS5 wins more biglyer. Overall sales down. 3 7.69%
 
PS5 wins more biglyer. Ov... 0 0%
 
PS5 wins less biglyer. Overall sales up. 1 2.56%
 
PS5 wins less biglyer. Overall sales down. 16 41.03%
 
PS5 wins less biglyer. Ov... 6 15.38%
 
XSX wins. Overall sales up. 2 5.13%
 
XSX wins. Overall sales down. 2 5.13%
 
XSX wins. Overall sales equal (+/-5%) 0 0%
 
Rerun of this gen 3 7.69%
 
Total:39
HollyGamer on 25 April 2020
NobleTeam360 said:
I think PS5 will maintain it's crown into next-gen but Xbox will close the gap. I think 65-70 million for Xbox Series X/S and 110-115 million for PS5. So, PS shrinks and Xbox gains. I may change my opinion depending on pricing, as I'm currently expecting both to cost 500 (if one ends up being a lot more expensive for example, that would obviously change things).

Yup this is more reasonable , but i can see Sony will have more sales then PS4 slightly as well.  



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kirby007 on 25 April 2020

i dont think people realise how badly microsoft started this gen, with their allways online and kinect bullshit, which imo was worse then the RROD fiasco



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JuliusHackebeil on 26 April 2020
sales2099 said:
JuliusHackebeil said:

I suppose it’s subjective. For me the PS3 vs 360 gen will always be history that will keep on teaching decades later. Xbox made considerable effort to cater to Japan from 2006-2009 yet was met with indifference. Their output of exclusives surpassed Ps3 until 2008 yet the sales did not reflect that. The 2007 house market collapse and RROD didn’t help though.

Where as Ps3 coasted on pure brand power until MGS4 in mid 2008. If any other console had that $599 price point and so-so exclusives for the first 2 years....it would have been a Sega Saturn scenario. Europe and Japan kept Sony afloat until the console got its act together.

So while exclusives have their place, pre existing brand power makes the start position different for everyone. By no means are Series X and PS5 launching as equals. Which again, is good for me because MS has to try a lot harder to impress. 

I tend to agree on your take of Japan in 360 vs PS3. XBox does not sell there, no matter what. But at the same time, the PS3 sold considrably less than the PS2 in Japan and everywhere else aswell. They made a huge plunder and performed in that generation almost half as good as the one before. Sonys mistakes do have an impact on them. 

A also kind of agree on the point about the next gen consoles not launching as equals. Microsoft is the underdog out of the gate,  that's for sure. But if Halo is as good as I think it might be, they will not have any problems selling everything they can produce for their first six months or even for the first year. Consoles often sell on promises. Microsoft can make big promises given that their first party is now stronger than ever. And that goes for PS5 aswell. A huge selling point will be sequels - SpiderMan2, Horizon 2, God of War. No matter how much better the XBox hardware, or price point is. When one of these drop, I will be buying a PS5.



sales2099 on 26 April 2020
JuliusHackebeil said:
sales2099 said:

I suppose it’s subjective. For me the PS3 vs 360 gen will always be history that will keep on teaching decades later. Xbox made considerable effort to cater to Japan from 2006-2009 yet was met with indifference. Their output of exclusives surpassed Ps3 until 2008 yet the sales did not reflect that. The 2007 house market collapse and RROD didn’t help though.

Where as Ps3 coasted on pure brand power until MGS4 in mid 2008. If any other console had that $599 price point and so-so exclusives for the first 2 years....it would have been a Sega Saturn scenario. Europe and Japan kept Sony afloat until the console got its act together.

So while exclusives have their place, pre existing brand power makes the start position different for everyone. By no means are Series X and PS5 launching as equals. Which again, is good for me because MS has to try a lot harder to impress. 

I tend to agree on your take of Japan in 360 vs PS3. XBox does not sell there, no matter what. But at the same time, the PS3 sold considrably less than the PS2 in Japan and everywhere else aswell. They made a huge plunder and performed in that generation almost half as good as the one before. Sonys mistakes do have an impact on them. 

A also kind of agree on the point about the next gen consoles not launching as equals. Microsoft is the underdog out of the gate,  that's for sure. But if Halo is as good as I think it might be, they will not have any problems selling everything they can produce for their first six months or even for the first year. Consoles often sell on promises. Microsoft can make big promises given that their first party is now stronger than ever. And that goes for PS5 aswell. A huge selling point will be sequels - SpiderMan2, Horizon 2, God of War. No matter how much better the XBox hardware, or price point is. When one of these drop, I will be buying a PS5.

Guess it’s time Xbox brings out the other guns. Fable, Hellblade 2, Obsidians AAA project, The Initiative IP...they got to change the perception that it’s just Halo Gears and Forza. But after the next couple months, i think that’s more then possible 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

loy310 on 26 April 2020

PS5 sales down due to slow start from price.
MS sells less XB than they did this gen, way smaller gap with PS5 tho
Nintendo next console is a flop.

Last edited by loy310 - on 26 April 2020

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JuliusHackebeil on 26 April 2020
sales2099 said:
JuliusHackebeil said:

Guess it’s time Xbox brings out the other guns. Fable, Hellblade 2, Obsidians AAA project, The Initiative IP...they got to change the perception that it’s just Halo Gears and Forza. But after the next couple months, i think that’s more then possible 

I also think it is possible to change that perception. Ideally you have a mix of establisged, big franchises and new, exciting IP. And it looks good on both fronts for Microsoft for the years to come. I hope they deliver. Their positioning and masseging has been better than Sonys at least up until now. That is why i predict significantly more xboxes sold this generation.

SeriesX = 80

PS5 = 130

That would mean a total increase for the sum of consoles Microsoft and Sony can sell. I assume that for two reasons.

1) Population grows and with it demand.

2) The PS5 and Xbox SeriesX are technically more impressive than the XBOne and PS4 were at their time. More people are gonna be dazzled by next gen wonders. And the generation will be even longer. 8 years minimum, with mid-gen-upgrades as an absolute certainty.



COKTOE on 26 April 2020
kirby007 said:
i dont think people realise how badly microsoft started this gen, with their allways online and kinect bullshit, which imo was worse then the RROD fiasco

Really? I think the poor start of the XBO is one of the most widely disseminated and well understood topics in the history of the site.



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Bofferbrauer2 on 26 April 2020

Playstation+Xbox now for 3 generations account to, counted together, for about 175M each gen. And I don't think that overall number will change much and will end up somewhere between 160M-190M.

And since it doesn't look like Microsoft makes the same mistakes that they did at the start of this gen, I'm pretty sure they'll do much better this gen, and consequently Sony will do worse. In the end I expect somewhere aroud 100M for PS5 and 80M for XSX.

COKTOE said:
kirby007 said:
i dont think people realise how badly microsoft started this gen, with their allways online and kinect bullshit, which imo was worse then the RROD fiasco

Really? I think the poor start of the XBO is one of the most widely disseminated and well understood topics in the history of the site.

But apparently not taken into account by some predictions.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 26 April 2020

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sales2099 on 26 April 2020
loy310 said:

PS5 sales down due to slow start from price.
MS sells less XB than they did this gen, way smaller gap with PS5 tho
Nintendo next console is a flop.

Less Xbox then this gen? I’d think the positive start, new studios and a rumoured $300 console would practically guarantee 50+ million 



Xbox: Best hardware, Game Pass best value, best BC, more 1st party genres and multiplayer titles. 

 

Wman1996 on 26 April 2020

This will be a tighter race than Generation 8. Microsoft seems to have learned from most of the stupidity of their Xbox One strategy (namely at the beginning).
PS5 will sell less than PS4. The PS4 is looking at 120-130 million lifetime hardware sales. PS5 might surpass the PS1, but I don't see it touching the PS4. The PS4 did so well largely because of Nintendo and Microsoft being stupid.
I can't say that Xbox Series X will sell more than the Xbox One, because I genuinely believe this will be the final generation of Xbox hardware. At the very least, I don't think it will do significantly better or worse than the Xbox One. The Xbox One will probably make it to 53-55 million lifetime hardware sales, and that's not too crazy for the Xbox Series X.

Last edited by Wman1996 - on 26 April 2020

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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