In case this wasn't posted yet, Scientific American has endorsed a presidential candidate, Joe Biden, for the first time in its 175 year history.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/scientific-american-endorses-joe-biden/

"Scientific American has never endorsed a presidential candidate in its 175-year history. This year we are compelled to do so. We do not do this lightly...The evidence and the science show that Donald Trump has badly damaged the U.S. and its people—because he rejects evidence and science...That is why we urge you to vote for Joe Biden, who is offering fact-based plans to protect our health, our economy and the environment. These and other proposals he has put forth can set the country back on course for a safer, more prosperous and more equitable future...Joe Biden comes prepared with plans to control COVID-19, improve health care, reduce carbon emissions and restore the role of legitimate science in policy making. He solicits expertise and has turned that knowledge into solid policy proposals...Although Trump and his allies have tried to create obstacles that prevent people from casting ballots safely in November, either by mail or in person, it is crucial that we surmount them and vote. It's time to move Trump out and elect Biden, who has a record of following the data and being guided by science."

We'll see how Supreme Court fallout changes things, but polls till now have indicated continued status quo, with the race staying mostly the same or arguably moving slightly towards Biden.

In a kind of crazy result, two polls in Montana show Trump ahead by 7 and 8 points. Trump won the state by about 15 polls in 2016, which was consistent with polling results from the time, although some outliers did have him up by less, and even a few had Clinton winning. But what little polling there is in Montana shows a consistent 7-9 point lead. If this is the case Trump is probably not in good shape. Losing support in such a strong republican state doesn't bode well elsewhere. Similarly in South Carolina, Trump's lead has shrunk to an average of 8 from 15.

It would seem strange if Trump's lead shrunk so much in solid red states and didn't in states that are democratic leaning or pure tossups that Trump won in 2016 like Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania. And considering a one 1-2 percentage shift from 2016 would flip those states and the election, this is not a good look for Trump. 

On the flipside, close Hilary states are not getting closer. Biden is up by an average of 12 in Virginia, where Hilary won by about 6 (2016 polls were basically dead on). In Minnesota where Hilary won by 2.4%, Biden is up by 8 (Hilary was up by about 5.5%). In Colorado where Hilary won by about 4%, Biden is up by about 9% (polls were pretty close as Hilary was up by 5%). 

Basically, the national shift in the election towards the Democratic seems to be felt across the board. It's not a matter of a state like California becoming bluer and shifting the national average without having a meaningful impact. And, it seems to make sense. Biden is a much better candidate than Clinton, Trump's approval is way less than in 2020. A Biden win seems logical, but there's still a reasonable chance for an upset.

Other than that it's business as usual. Monmouth University has a small lead for Biden in Arizona while NY Times has a huge advantage of 9. NC is consistently showing a 2 point Biden lead. Leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are staying remotely constant. Florida in the meantime shows a consistent low 2-3 point lead. Winning Florida would mean winning the election for Biden (unless Trump won Arizona, NC, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio). Winning North Carolina wouldn't quite end things, but it'd be close. Bloomberg's getting to make it rain in Florida. Can one lone billionaire make a difference? And if he does will we finally see some meaningful reform in political spending (spoilers, maybe and definitely not)?

So, we'll see how things change as the Court becomes more of an issue. Personally, I don't anticipate a huge shift but we'll see. Trump needed something to change the status quo, since the status quo was not looking good for him. Basically any news was good news, and this was definitely big news.

Cindy McCain has endorsed Joe Biden in what is probably an expected move. Still, this could only help Biden in Arizona. McCain was a popular figure, and as we sadly know, people tend to appreciate you more in death than they did in life.

Meanwhile a top rated pollster has the race even in Iowa.

Arizona is an important state for Biden and nearly a must win for Trump. If Biden loses in Wisconsin, Arizona makes up for it. If Trump can win in PA, and all of the other swing states besides Arizona and one of the two 1 vote districts, Biden would win, assuming he holds his leads everywhere else.

Iowa on the other hand probably doesn't matter. In theory, a win in Iowa could allow Biden to lose Wisconsin and remain over 270. If Biden won Iowa and Arizona, then he could withstand losses in Wisconsin and Michigan. Realistically though, if Biden wins Iowa (which is still unlikely) he would almost definitely win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota, and would probably win Ohio as well. Winning in Iowa would be part of an electoral landslide. It's hard to concoct a scenario where the results in Iowa would actually determine who wins.

That being said, Iowa is a state that a) Trump won by a lot and b) is mostly white. If Iowa actually shifted 10 points, or even half of that, then Biden will win. So that's not a great result for Trump.

But lest I be accused of being biased (which I totally am, but I still think I can evaluate numbers properly), Trump remains very much within striking distance in Florida, Pennsylvania, ans Wisconsin, which presents the most likely path to victory. Compared to 2016 Biden's up in Florida over Hilary (in 2016 at this time there was a statistical tie Biden is up 1.8%), Biden is slightly up over Hilary in Pennsylvania, (she was up about 3%, he is by four), and in Wisconsin, Biden is up by about 6% to 4.5% for Hillary.

So, Biden has a better chance of winning there, but he's still well within the margin of error. Last year in Florida, the polls were off by about 1.5% in favor of Hillary, about 6% off in favor of Hilary in Wisconsin, and about 4% in favor of Biden. If the polls are off by the same degree this year (assuming the numbers stay this way till the election), then Trump would win Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Of course, for all we know, the polls over corrected from 2016, and are now underestimating Biden, in which case, we'd be looking at a 400+ vote landslide. So, point is, it's still very much an open contest.

Trump was asked today if he'll commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose.

"Mail-in ballots are a disaster." "We want to have--get rid of the ballots and you'll have a very peaceful, there won't be a transfer, frankly. There'll be a continuation."

2nd video below

Q: Will you commit to a peaceful transfer of power after the election?

TRUMP: "We're gonna have to see what happens." pic.twitter.com/Dzj7Q9ZJqv

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) September 23, 2020

And to add on it, he then says he wants to replace RBG before the election because the claims they'll have to decide over the election result in the end.

Well you have to give it to the President, if Biden wins no matter what, he will contest it and he isn't trying to hide what he plans to do.

Unless it's his healthcare plan, which is always ready and will be released in a couple weeks for close to 4 years now...

No doubt Trump wants to be a dictator. Only question is whether the rest of the government will let him.

If people can not remove politicians through the ballot box, what is the alternative? The protests and riots happening now will be nothing.

In terms of polling, results are mostly the same with some interesting notes.

One poll has Biden up by 5 in Virginia. If this result is accurate it wouldn't be terrible, as that's about what Hillary won by in 2016, but it could indicate a tightening race. That being said, it's only one result by an average pollster. Shouldn't be read into too much, but few polls have been conducted in Virginia, so beggars can't be choosers.

In Iowa one top pollster (Monmouth) has Trump up by 3, while another has Biden up by 3. This indicates that the race is probably a true toss-up, which is not a good sign for Trump in a state he won by about 9 points.

Speaking of states he won by about 9 points, Quinnipac has Biden up by 1 in Ohio. That's not a statistically significant lead, but this shows that Ohio, like Iowa has shifted way in favor of Biden. Ohio itself is a tossup, and losing it would effectively lose the election for Trump. Moreover, if Ohio is close, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota are pretty much a lock, and the election is probably over. At the very least, Trump needs Pennsylvania, and probably Wisconsin too.

In those other key states, it's same old same old. Biden maintains about a 5% lead in Pennsylvania which is solid, but polls being off by 5% is not unheard of. His lead is 6.6% in Wisconsin. If the number doesn't change, then even with a polling error similar to 2016 in Wisconsin, Biden would win. In Michigan the lead is 7%, although one recent poll (not a highly rated one) actually shows Trump with a lead. In Minnesota, where voters have very good genes according to Trump, Biden's lead seems pretty much entirely safe as he's up by about 9.

Arizona is a bit all over the place. ABC News shows Trump ahead by 1, NY Times has Biden ahead by 9, and Monmouth has Biden by 1. So, a lot of disagreement among top polls. We'll see how the McCain family induction changes things. Arizona is not a must win for Biden, but it is a security blanket. If Biden loses Pennsylvania and Florida, Arizona gets him within one electoral vote which he'd have to pick up in Nebraska or Maine.

Other plan B states include Georgia, which NY Times has as even, while Monmouth has a 3-4 point advantage for Trump. Biden has a chance there. He has a better chance in North Carolina where he's actually up by 1 on average. If Biden wins either of these states and either flips either Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, or Arizona, then there is no path to victory for Trump.

Of course it may all come down to Florida, America's penis. Here the recent news is not great for Biden with ABC News showing Trump up by 4. This contrasts with Monmouth that had Biden up by 4. Interestingly, ABC News has Biden up by 1 among registered voters. So, they are predicting higher turnout among pro-Trump demographics. We'll see how that plays out.


Still looks like Biden should win in a relatively convincing fashion. The most vulnerable must win state that Biden is currently leading in is Pennsylvania, and even there he has a stable lead. In comparison, Biden is ahead in 5 Trump must wins (NC, PA, WI, AZ, FL), within a point in two (OH, GA), and within 3 in one (Texas). With all that you'd think Biden's in a comfortable position, but this is 2020, and who the fuck can predict anything anymore.

But you can't trust the polls. Remember 2016? Hillary lead nearly every poll and yet Trump shocked the nation and won.

Unlike 2016, this time around the culture of fear in the US has reached a whole new level, caused by the woke mob and the extreme partisan propaganda in mainstream media. The atmosphere of hate is so strong in many places that ordinary Americans run the risk of getting persecuted in their regular daily life at the work-place for just telling that they support the president. You also have critical race theory running amok in many workplaces, and the vast majority of people who particpate feel its very uncomfortable and evil but rarely dare to speak up because of fear of repercussions. This psychology makes many Trump voters hesitate to tell their true feelings in polls. I estimate this factor alone could eat away several points of the Biden lead in current polls. This is the silent majority.

And on top of that you have other effects, all in favour of Trump:

- There will be US unemployment data released just a couple of days before the election, and everything points to an increase in job gains.

- The debates should earn a percentage point or two to Trump. Biden is a frail man, a fact that the Democrats and MSM media are well aware of, which is why they've tried to hide his weakness. Biden simply does not have 4 years of presidency in him anymore and his age and slow train of thought will become apparent to everybody in the debates

- The closer you get to election day, the more favorable it is to the incumbent. It's an automatic, psychological effect which is true for all Western countries. There are some people who tend to choose what is known, trust and safe instead of the unknown.

I think Trump is the favorite to win.