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Forums - Politics - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread



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shikamaru317 said:

One thing is for sure, this race is much closer than the opinion polling lead people to believe. Either the pollsters are biased and are purposefully skewing opinion polling by targeting more blue areas than red areas with their calls, or there is some accidental error in their methodology that they somehow didn't manage to correct even after they failed in 2016.

Nah, polling is surprisingly difficult in the US for a two-party system. That's because of the diverse demographic factors and general low turnout, which can lead to surprising result if turnout rises strongly. As it obviously did today in Florida for example.



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shikamaru317 said:

One thing is for sure, this race is much closer than the opinion polling lead people to believe. Either the pollsters are biased and are purposefully skewing opinion polling by targeting more blue areas than red areas with their calls, or there is some accidental error in their methodology that they somehow didn't manage to correct even after they failed in 2016.

Its not just the polling. Its the hidden Trump vote. People do not like saying they support him. Its just not worth the hassle it may bring for them.



Cerebralbore101 said:
Biden is losing in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio now too. Mass polling error in Trump's favor once again. I give up on American politics. I live in a shithole country. Simple as that. Never voting again.

Biden's doing very well in Ohio, where he lost by 9. Less of the votes there are from mail in, so he still has a good chance of winning there. Even if he loses but is close that's a great performance for him.

Michigan counts early votes first so it's expected that Trump will lead there at first. Same thing for Wisconsin, especially as Milwaukee counts will report last.

Midwest is looking fine for now.  



shikamaru317 said:
jason1637 said:

Eeesh. Hopefully enough of the other swing states are decided tonight, so that we don't have to wait a week for the results of this election.

Yeah, hope so. Wish other states did it like Florida. We got those results pretty quickly.



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KLXVER said:
shikamaru317 said:

One thing is for sure, this race is much closer than the opinion polling lead people to believe. Either the pollsters are biased and are purposefully skewing opinion polling by targeting more blue areas than red areas with their calls, or there is some accidental error in their methodology that they somehow didn't manage to correct even after they failed in 2016.

Its not just the polling. Its the hidden Trump vote. People do not like saying they support him. Its just not worth the hassle it may bring for them.

That's really sad that people have to do that.



jason1637 said:

How about the rest of the state?

Though from what I see there, it looks like a Biden victory. While Trump is leading, the red counties are mostly counted by over 50%, while the blue cities are sitting at less than 20%. So once those get counted, Trumps lead should evaporate there.



Biden has already more votes in Arizona than Clinton in 2016, Trump is lagging behind.



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JWeinCom said:
Cerebralbore101 said:
Biden is losing in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio now too. Mass polling error in Trump's favor once again. I give up on American politics. I live in a shithole country. Simple as that. Never voting again.

Biden's doing very well in Ohio, where he lost by 9. Less of the votes there are from mail in, so he still has a good chance of winning there. Even if he loses but is close that's a great performance for him.

Michigan counts early votes first so it's expected that Trump will lead there at first. Same thing for Wisconsin, especially as Milwaukee counts will report last.

Midwest is looking fine for now.  

He lost by 9 points somewhere in Ohio? Explain?

Also, if not for Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina being almost certainly called for Trump, I would agree with you that midwest looks fine. The problem with that are two things. 1st off Iowa got a massively well rated poll saying that Trump was up +7 points. That points to a polling error in Trump's favor in the midwest. Second off huge polling errors in the three southeastern states that I mentioned also point to a huge polling error in Trump's favor.



Yeah this election is coming down to PA.