I am! It just so happens to be that this very bad idea backed by NO logic or facts is almost exclusively perpetuated by a specific group of people. 

"You're a bad person" is a personal attack. Grow up and read a book are also iffy. We let some things slide on the post you're responding to, so this can slide too, but refrain from further comments like that. Anything further on this can be a PM.

Welp, back to polling news.

The Bad News

Bad and good are from my point of view as someone supporting Biden. If you support Trump, flip it.

Emerson has a poll showing Biden up by 4 points. Being up by 4 points nationally may or may not be enough to win the election based on the electoral college. That being said, Emerson has always had Biden lower than other high rated polls. 4 points is actually an increase from their last national poll. Still, they're a generally reliable pollster, and that number is concerning.

Rasmussen has Biden up by 2... Their last poll had him down by 1. Rasmussen is kind of sketchy... Their last 6 polls show Biden up 2, down 3, up 5, up 12, up 8, and up 1. That's all over the course of one month. The electorate isn't changing that wildly. Something's rotten in the state of Denmark. 

The biggest bad news for Biden is in Nortch Carolina. Survey USA has it as an even race, while RMG, and Ipsos have Biden up 1. Public Policy Polling has him up 4, but that's a pretty left leaning poll, so grain of salt. North Carolina is a must win for Trump, and is an important plan B state for Biden if the rust belt pulls a 16.

Lastly, Susquehanna Polling has Trump up by 5 in Florida. It's a bit weird Trump would increase by so much in Florida when all signs point to a smaller national lead. Susquehanna is pretty sus, so again, grain of salt. Biden is still favored to win according to Fivethirtyeight, but not based on RCP averages. And while I feel intuitively that 538 should be better, RCP was actually more accurate in 16. That being said, Trump's Florida lead come strictly from Rasmussen, Trafalgar, and Susquehanna, and their recent results have been incredibly weird. 

The Neutral News

Overall, Biden's national lead is fairly steady at 9.2 for 538 and 7.8 for RCP. CNBC/Hart Research has him up by 11. IPSOS meanwhile continues to be an odd duck, showing Biden at +5, compared to +8 a few days ago. Within the margin of error though, so nothing all that surprising.

Biden's lead is steady in Michigan. His lead is about 8.3 on 538, and 9 on RCP. By comparison, Clinton only was up by 4. So, the error in the polling would have to be double what it was in 2016 for Trump to win. Biden's lead is also stable in Wisconsin, at 7.1% at 538, and 5.5 at RCP. Clinton was up by 5.3 on 538 on election day.

The only rust belt state that seems at risk for Biden is Pennsylvania. Biden currently has a 5.3 lead there according to 538, and 3.8 according to RCP. This is better than Clinton was doing on election day (3.7 on 538 and 1.9 on RCP) but is still within the margin of error.

If Biden loses in PA, his chances of winning drop to about 29%. However, if he loses PA but keeps MI, MN, and WI, then he has a 54% chance. In this scenario, assuming he keeps the other Clinton states, Arizona is his best chance for victory, taking him to exactly 270. If he loses Arizona, then Florida or North Carolina are his best shots. If he loses all three of those, Georgia is his last shot. 

The Good News

But, Georgia may not be impossible, as Biden is now up in Georgia based on 538.  This is mainly because of a Civiqs poll, showing Biden up by 5 there. But I'm a little suspicious on Civiqs since they lured me into a poll with an ad saying "Do you think Donald Trump profits from being in office". Of course, maybe they also run some ads with a pro Trump bias.

In Arizona, Pratkins research has Biden up by 7. Which if true would allow Biden to withstand a loss in PA. Never heard of them though, so who knows how accurate they are. OH Predictive insights has Biden up by 3 there. 

In Nevada, Biden is up by 6 according to NY Times, and by 9 according to the Las Vegas Lee Business school. Nevada was actually really close in 2016 and one of the states where Clinton was underrated, because I guess Trump voters aren't shy there? In 2016 Clinton was projected to lose by 1 by RCP and win by 1.2 by 538. She actually won by 2.4. So, if Biden indeed is winning by 6ish points, that's a good sign for his chances elsewhere. 

Last piece of good news is RABA Research having Biden up by 4 in Iowa. Iowa isn't important in itself, but if Biden wins in Iowa, which he is now projected to do by both 538 and RCP, then he'll almost certainly carry Pennsylvania. If Biden wins Iowa he is projected to win 99% of the time.

The Really Good New (Maybe)

According to Public Policy Polling Trump is up by 2 in Montana. That's... a weird result. Trump won the state by about 20 points. Public Policy Polling leans very left. That being said, other polls like the Times show Biden up by 6. So, maybe it's possible that it actually is close, but I wouldn't get too crazy.

Some polls in South Carolina are also showing Biden closing in on Trump. He's up by about 7.7 there overall, which is not close, but is not good for a state where Trump won by 14 last time. That being said 7% is about where Clinton was, so, maybe the polls aren't accurate.

Overall state of the Race

How close this race is hinges on how much you trust Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and Susquehanna. In some states, Biden's lead is narrowing, but that's mostly the result of these three polls. And... they've put out some really weird numbers. Rasmussen has Trump's approval rate doubling with black voters over the span of 5 days, and Biden winning about 75% of the Democratic vote. Trafalgar meanwhile posted, defended, and later denied polls showing Trump picking up about 1/3 of the black vote, and 28.8% of democrats. 

If you ignore those polls, then Biden's almost a shoe in. If on the other hand you think their success in predicting certain states in 2016 was legit and they're picking up on something everyone else is missing, than Trump has a chance.

Personally, everything in my head is telling me Biden's a lock, but I still haven't gotten over 2016 PTSD. 

Dude, just give up already. This place is a political echo chamber, along with everything that comes along. The games discussion is good though.

Also the updates on the election race voting % is good, I like it.

Especially then. We shouldn't drop down to a low level because of this. Flinging shit at each other doesn't help anyone.

In Australia I am centerist politically, definitely believe in some right-wing approaches such as strong border protections and limiting immigration to the highly skilled because there are economical and social benefits in doing so.

Thus I do support the idea of securing borders like the USA building a wall.
What I personally took issue with is how the wall got downgraded to a fence in areas, how a large portion of the wall was already-built by prior governments and Trump taking all the credit for it and blatantly lying about getting Mexico to pay for it.

I also believe each country should secure localized manufacturing rather than relying on a consolidated manufacturing hub like China.

The USA political divide is one step over to the right, so what is regarded as the center here is center-left there... In the end though I don't care if someone is left-wing or right-wing, it's irrelevant, I am not going to shut down their points because it might be conservative or progressive, I will challenge the individual points themselves on a merits basis.

More people need to take that approach... Because blindly following a conservative view or progressive view doesn't really benefit an entire nation, neither side is 100% correct or 100% incorrect, 100% of the time.

Challenge their opinions/points using evidence and facts, it's the best way to completely undermine someones position and remove any legitimacy to their claims.

Especially if they are entering a thread, posting absurd points and failing to engage with the evidence that refutes all of their points.

I'm ready to use this on election night just in case.

As we get closer and closer... the polls are getting stranger and stranger.

The OK News

Biden's lead is pretty steady. It's at 9.0% on Fivethirtyeight, from 9.2 a day ago. It has been drifting from its high, but not quick enough that the race will be close, at this point. RCP has Biden's lead rising a bit to 7.5%.

The strange thing is that most pollsters have the race steady at about a 10 point Biden lead. The change seems to be coming from ideological pollsters. There are more republican ones (although they're mostly run by the same people), but some democratic leaning ones too.

Take for instance, the Public Religion Research Institute. The poll shows a 19 point lead for Biden. With a name like that, you may expect they are a right wing evangelical pollster, but that's not the case. Aside from the obvious "who will you vote for" stuff, all of the pollster's questions are about police brutality and systemic racism. Of course, this doesn't mean their result is wrong, but when the results are so far from the mean, and they have a clear ideology, you should be taking your salt tablet.

On the other end, Spry Strategies has Biden up by a mere 2 points, which would probably lead to an electoral college victory. But, a look at their questions shows that every one is about trans people being allowed in female spaces, which they are opposed to. Again, that doesn't mean they're wrong, but there is a clear result they want the poll to show. And when they are so off from the norm, you have to wonder if, like the PRRInstitute, they may have sampled in such a way to show what they want to show.

And of course, our friends at Rasmussen continue their ping pong polling, showing Trump up by 1, a three point shift from last week. Over the past month, they've had Biden up 1, Biden up 8, Biden up 12, Biden up 5, Biden up 3, Trump up 2, Biden up 2, Trump up 1. Those are... interesting results. Everyone else has shown a relatively stable race. 

This may be a case where the median is more useful than the mean... but I don't have the median. The overall picture is that the race is around the same. Whether you think it is tightening depends on how much faith you place in the ideological pollsters to put their views aside and do a fair analysis. 

The Bad News

As always, this is a pro-Biden post, so flip the adjective if you are on the other end. IPSOS is showing a rather narrow race in Florida and Arizona, with Biden leading by a point in either. Harper polling shows the same in North Carolina. If Biden loses Pennsylvania, he needs at least one of these states. They are all within the margin of error.

The Good News

Maine's second district is now projected to vote for Biden. This is just one vote, but it's the little district that could decide the election. If Trump wins all the swing states, except for Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska's 2nd, which is not a totally crazy scenario, then ME-2 would be the difference between a Biden win and a tie (which likely means a Trump 2nd term). 

Two recent polls have Biden up by 4 in the district. The only poll that has shown Biden losing there had a Trump margin of 8 by a shaky pollster (which had Trump winning 20% of registered Democrats), so really Biden's lead is probably stable. Overall, Biden is winning Maine by 10+points.

Another Montana poll has the state close, this time a 7 point lead, while a South Carolina poll shows Biden up by 8. These are not great numbers in states where Trump won by about 20 and 15. Normally, one should dismiss polls in states like that, because they are so infrequently polled and individual polls can mislead, but the results are consistently showing Biden within 10. This doesn't mean Biden will win either, he almost definitely won't, but it may be a hint to what turnout will look like.

The Great News

Georgia and North Carolina have a weird yin and yang thing going on. When Biden dips in one, he seems to do better in the other. This is probably just normal margin of error stuff, but it's interesting. 

The last few polls in Georgia have been good for Biden. Civiqs showed him up by 5. I'm mistrustful of them, but Monmouth has Biden up by 4 today. These polls have given Biden an overall lead in Georgia, and he's favored to win there (albeit very slightly). Polls in Georgia were right on the money in 16, predicting a 4.8 Trump lead just .3 off from the actual result. If Georgia is close this year, it seems likely that Biden will increase by at least 1% in the rust belt. Sure they're different regions, but you'd expect some similarity. Moreso, you'd expect Biden to do better in nearby North Carolina and Florida, where Clinton lost by 3.6 and .9%. A close race in Georgia also holds important Senate implications.

That seems to be holding in North Carolina, but Florida just kind of does Florida things. Basically every poll there, except for right wing polls we've discussed earlier, have Biden up by 2, which seems to be the case no matter how other states fluctuate. It's actually been a little bit since there have been highly regarded polls in Florida.

The WTF News

The biggest news in polling comes from the state of Wisconsin. Marquette has Biden up by 6, which is fine, but a little below average. Washington Post has Biden up by 17 O_O...

And I don't know how I feel about this. You'd expect I'd be happy about it, but it's one of those things that seems too good to be true. It's not completely out of left field. Other polls had Biden hovering around 10 and even as high as 12. And, Washington Post is unlikely to be blatantly manipulating the data. 

The Post's theory is that this is a legitimate increase in Biden's chances due to midwest becoming the latest Covid hotspot. Local media is focused on Covid, as well they should be, as cases spike across the area. Trump's handling of the coronavirus is his weakest point, so maybe there is an actual shift.

More than likely though this is just an outlier. If Biden's lead is actually around 9 points, then a result of 15 would be at the high end by within the margin of error (based on my understanding). 17 isn't that far off.

Alternatively... it could mean the polling is fucked. This is unlikely, but I still have 2016 flashbacks. I think this result bothers me because Biden is in a good position, and anything upsetting the balance, even if it seems to be good for Biden, makes me antsy. 

In Pennsylvania, another black man was shot and killed by police. I haven't looked into this, so I have no idea whether this was justified or not, but the people there are not happy, and there have been protests, and riots. Looking at this from an electoral standpoint, this probably isn't great for Biden. The protests and riots haven't exactly been helping Trump in the polls, but again, when Biden's lead is the status quo, any change is worrisome.

Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is around 5, and it seems like a given at this point that a win in PA will also mean wins in Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, and the USA. Biden's lead is about double what Clinton had on election day according to RCP (3.8 vs 2.1), and a bit higher on 538 (5.1 vs 3.7), so it would take a bigger error for Trump to win.

The Supreme Court's Role

The Supreme Court split 4-4 earlier on deciding whether or not to invalidate a PA law allowing ballots to be counted late. With Justice Barrett added to the bench, they tried again. The court unanimously decided not to hear the case. While three justices (anyone who follows them could figure it out) said that the changes might be illegal, the court interfering so close to the election would cause more harm than good. 

When the court is unanimous, that is often a statement. Hopefully, this is the path the Court will take, and absence any legitimate claim of fraud, they will stay out of the process.

Overall

And that's where we stand. Contrary to popular belief that Clinton's loss was completely out of left field, she dropped pretty drastically over the last week or so, until fivethirtyeight gave her about a 70% chance. Trump in contrast has an 11% chance at this point now. On RCP, Biden is up by 5.6 points over where Clinton was nationwide, and polling better by 1.5% in Battleground states.

All signs point to Biden, but we'll see.

I believe I read that if they control for the composition of the electorate, that 17 turns into a 12, which makes a lot more sense.

I thought that was something most polls did by default?