By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - Official 2020 US Presidential Election Thread

CNN Poll:Trump does better than last time, but still trails Biden 53 to 39 in the debate performance. Favorabilities hold steady for both candidates.

Last edited by TallSilhouette - on 23 October 2020

Around the Network

YouGov: Biden 54% (+19), Trump 35%. Interestingly, a higher spread than they had for the first debate. Of course, it's hard to compare to CNN's numbers since their (CNN) sample was D+14 the last time and D+1 this time concerning registration.



 

 

 

 

 

So Fox news is airing something interesting. Its a guy Tony Bobulinsky that says he has evidence of Joe and Hunter dealings with a China company to enrich themselves. Interesting that he has all these text, emails so fort but of course he doesn't have anything with Joe name on it and he waiting until less than 2 weeks to come forward with his new patriotism. Yu have to love the last minute long ball here but its interesting to see how this will play out. There is nothing illegal going on since these deals were done in 2017 but he would need to provide evidence with Joe name in it to really bring this home.



Machiavellian said:
So Fox news is airing something interesting. Its a guy Tony Bobulinsky that says he has evidence of Joe and Hunter dealings with a China company to enrich themselves. Interesting that he has all these text, emails so fort but of course he doesn't have anything with Joe name on it and he waiting until less than 2 weeks to come forward with his new patriotism. Yu have to love the last minute long ball here but its interesting to see how this will play out. There is nothing illegal going on since these deals were done in 2017 but he would need to provide evidence with Joe name in it to really bring this home.

It’s all dumb.  I’m sure Hunter was using his dads name to make some money, and honestly I can’t really blame him.  I don’t believe for a second Joe was involved in any of it, and obviously none of it has Joe’s name either.  The crazy thing though, is if you flipped the script and looked at Trumps kids, I’m pretty sure they have done far worse, but with out the drug addiction to blame.



gergroy said:
Machiavellian said:
So Fox news is airing something interesting. Its a guy Tony Bobulinsky that says he has evidence of Joe and Hunter dealings with a China company to enrich themselves. Interesting that he has all these text, emails so fort but of course he doesn't have anything with Joe name on it and he waiting until less than 2 weeks to come forward with his new patriotism. Yu have to love the last minute long ball here but its interesting to see how this will play out. There is nothing illegal going on since these deals were done in 2017 but he would need to provide evidence with Joe name in it to really bring this home.

It’s all dumb.  I’m sure Hunter was using his dads name to make some money, and honestly I can’t really blame him.  I don’t believe for a second Joe was involved in any of it, and obviously none of it has Joe’s name either.  The crazy thing though, is if you flipped the script and looked at Trumps kids, I’m pretty sure they have done far worse, but with out the drug addiction to blame.

The guy said he had a meeting with Joe and they talked about the setup of this company which so happens he is still in charge of I believe.  What I find interesting in all this as well is of the timing.  I am also not believing this but if you think about timing it makes sense.  He comes out on national news less than 2 weeks before election.  He makes claims but nothing can or will be verified that Joe has any involvement but the insinuation of it is enough before election to try and swing some votes.  During this reveal I could not determine if there was anything going on that was illegal but that is probably the point.  It doesn't have to be illegal or anything, the insinuation of dealing with China right now is the theme more than anything else.



Around the Network

The final debate was Trump's last chance to turn things around, and he needed to knock it out of the park... which he was never going to accomplish. "Less awful than last time" isn't good enough.

Trump's approval ratings are still in the toilet. The polls, while they may narrow slightly in the coming days, still massively favor Biden, who is still performing far better than Hillary did in 2016 and at least as good if not better than Obama was in 2012, not just nationally but in most key states. With only eleven days to go until election day, I can't see much of anything realistic that would turn the tide in Trump's favor.



Shadow1980 said:
The final debate was Trump's last chance to turn things around, and he needed to knock it out of the park... which he was never going to accomplish. "Less awful than last time" isn't good enough.

Trump's approval ratings are still in the toilet. The polls, while they may narrow slightly in the coming days, still massively favor Biden, who is still performing far better than Hillary did in 2016 and at least as good if not better than Obama was in 2012, not just nationally but in most key states. With only eleven days to go until election day, I can't see much of anything realistic that would turn the tide in Trump's favor.

I sure hope you are right.  The way 2016 went down still has me nervous though.  I would be so happy to not have to hear about Betsy devos education plans anymore... easily the worst government official we have ever had...



Fact checks of the final debate:

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/oct/23/fact-checking-donald-trump-joe-biden-final-preside/
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/10/factchecking-the-final-2020-presidential-debate/

It's not even close.



gergroy said:

I sure hope you are right.  The way 2016 went down still has me nervous though.  I would be so happy to not have to hear about Betsy devos education plans anymore... easily the worst government official we have ever had...

I understand your concern. I'm still worried myself that the Trump administration may try to find some way to subvert the results of the election should he lose. And looking at the numbers, the odds of him winning fairly are negligible. He's incredibly unpopular, and presidents with net negative approval ratings never win re-election. Also, Biden has been polling far better than Hillary, being at or above 50% in several key states that Hillary lost in 2016.

2020 isn't 2016, and Biden isn't Hillary. We have an incompetent, egomaniacal, and deeply unpopular man-child as president. The abstract of a possible Trump presidency in 2016 is much different than actually seeing what it's like living under the Trump presidency. We have a more likable Democratic candidate this time around, and he's running against the actual reality of the Trump presidency. Trump won by the skin of his teeth in 2016. Even a modest shift towards the Democrats will net Biden a win, and it's looking like a pretty big shift will happen.



My thoughts on the second and final debate:

First of all, and let's just get this established, Joe Biden was the clear winner in public opinion. All four national polls of viewers taken on the subject indicate that, by a double-digit margin, Biden was perceived as the "winner" of this debate. This includes Politico's (54% to 39%), CNN's (53% to 39%), YouGov's (54% to 35%), and the Data for Progress survey (52% to 40%) all. What's more, there's no indication of a reduced margin compared to the first debate either. Biden's margin of perceived victory in the YouGov survey, for example, was wider than in the analogous survey taken immediately after the first debate (which had been 48% to 41%) while the CNN survey appears more favorable to Trump than in the first debate only because they sampled more Republicans this time around (D+1 here compared to D+14 in their poll from last month). Nothing has changed. Nobody should be panicking and no Trump voters should be happy.

People (including the press) act like if Trump just becomes temporarily more civilized for an hour and a half, that's enough to sell people on the merits of the administration's herd immunity strategy. It's not, and you can plainly see as much in the survey results linked above. People still prefer to live, believe it or not. There is no getting around the coronavirus issue. You cannot blandly weasel your way out of the fact that you're actively trying to take away 20 million people's health insurance in the middle of a pandemic, failing to negotiate a new covid relief bill demanded by more than 70% of Americans (instead the confirmation of an unpopular new Supreme Court justice is being prioritized), and desperately attacking the most trusted man in America on this issue, Dr. Anthony Fauci (who enjoys a 68% personal favorability rating) because your do-nothing strategy has manifestly failed miserably. Nobody (or at least nobody new anyway) is buying his bullshit, and least of all on the #1 issue on their minds.

It was obvious from this debate that even Trump himself has figured out that his campaign strategy has clearly failed, as he notably dropped all references to "law and order", the main throughline at the Republican National Convention  two months ago, as well as all claims of voter fraud, in this debate, apparently sensing that these two core components of his re-election argument up to now aren't getting anywhere. When you drop your core argument less than two weeks out from election day...well I think that says everything that needs to be said both about where you stand...and about what you stand for. The main takeaway I got from this debate was that Biden is running on something (e.g. stimulus package, PPE surge, green infrastructure program, raising the minimum wage in a way that would directly benefit me personally, etc.) while Trump is running on nothing. Whatever you think of the message Trump offered in 2016, you can't deny that he had one and that it came through more clearly than Hillary Clinton's. In 2020, by contrast, Trump has no message, no second-term program, on offer. It's his opponent this time around who offers a discernible vision for a better future. People I think can sense that difference.

Also, let's be clear: this debate was only more civilized than the September debate because the moderator now had, and used, the power to cut off the mics of the candidates when it was not their turn to speak. Had this ability not existed, I guarantee you this debate would've much more closely resembled what we saw last month. The credit is owed not to Trump, but to the Commission on Presidential Debates and debate moderator Kristen Welker for forcing this debate to resemble the standard PBS style. In point of fact it's a miracle we even got a second debate considering that the sitting president withdrew from last week's debate, thereby cancelling it. As much is pretty ironic considering that it was Trump and the Republicans who just spent the whole summer demanding that the Biden team agree to additional debates beyond the usual three and warning that Joe Biden would surely pull out of the existing ones at that. The sheer hypocrisy cannot be overstated, and serves as really a microcosm of the sort of projecting that so many conservative orators against cancel culture engage in.

Speaking of, Trump withdrew from last week's debate officially because it would've been virtual, but in reality because key members of his debate prep team were sick with covid at the time, in case you can't figure out what the actual reasoning was. The actual truth there, problematically, tends to undermine Trump's message that there's nothing to this covid situation and everything is fine. He reiterated at Thursday's debate how we're "rounding the curve". It must be the longest curve on Earth (perhaps shaped something like this), considering that the nation immediately thereafter recorded a record single-day case load for new coronavirus infections: more than 83,000 new cases in one day were confirmed yesterday, the day after Trump's reassurance at the debate.

Anyway, no, Trump will not be re-elected. That matter is pretty well settled now, I firmly believe. He will instead fall into the fairly rare category of sitting presidents who both survived long enough to serve a second term and failed to win re-election after seeking one. Just three other American presidents have accomplished such a feat in the last century: Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter, and George Bush Sr.

Last edited by Jaicee - on 24 October 2020