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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

The switch first 20 million seller... and more will arrive soon



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I don't really have much to say except for a few points.

- Astral Chain 2 will happen.
- Marvel was a good deal, more will come.
- 52 million under 3 years. 100 million is a realistic goal.
- Pokemon is going to be over 20 million easy.
- Splatoon 2 aaaalmost at 10 million.

The Switch: 



OTBWY said:

I don't really have much to say except for a few points.

- Astral Chain 2 will happen.
- Marvel was a good deal, more will come.
- 52 million under 3 years. 100 million is a realistic goal.
- Pokemon is going to be over 20 million easy.
- Splatoon 2 aaaalmost at 10 million.

The Switch: 

Actually it is expected to easily reach 100 million now



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me

Congrats Switch,



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Ring Fit Adventure: 2.17m

Damn, excellent numbers there. Also, at this rate, Mario Kart 8D is outselling MK Wii.

curl-6 said:

So after just a month and a half of sales, Sword/Shield is on the brink of outselling the lifetime sales of X/Y and Sun/Moon, and has already outsold Black/White.

Holy guacamole, so much for that boycott...

I agree. For all of the controversy, Sw/Sh is going to end up being the second best selling Pokemon game. It's frustrating to think that this is only going to encourage GF to continue its worst practices.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

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Nintendo is forecasting shipments of under 2m for January to March 2020. Of the 10.81m shipped in Q3, 3.24m were for the Lite. The Lite accounting for 30% after an already generous initial shipment in Q2 shows where overshipping occured, so Nintendo won't have to ship many Lites in Q4, hence the low forecast. Another factor is that shipment forecasts on the level of such magnitude are given in increments of 0.5m, so Nintendo not being 100% confident in 20m means that 19.5m is the next best target. The ongoing success of Ring Fit Adventure could still make that 20m Switch consoles shipped for the full fiscal year, but this year Nintendo has been opting for the conservative side as far as forecasts have been concerned.

Software shipments have been revised upwards, from 125m to 140m.

The revenue forecast has remained the same (only a few % up year over year), but operating profit has been revised upwards (now expected to be 20% higher than the year before). The Lite brought down the average selling price of Switch hardware this fiscal year, so there's a decline in revenue that is in turn offset by higher software sales. Software has higher profit margins than hardware, hence the gains in overall profit year over year.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Amazing sales all around!

Mario Kart looks set to cross the 30m lifetime mark after this quarter. Breath of the Wild should cross 20m, even if the sequel will be here by late 2020. Smash, Pokémon, Mario will cross the 20m mark as well. 

This reminds me of the Wii and DS days when Nintendo's titles sold insane numbers for years and years. And Switch hardware will easily pass 100m units lifetime. 

What these numbers show is that it was definitely the right decision to merge the home console and handheld divisions for Nintendo. They can put so much more resources into just one console and each of their titles gets full attention by the market - compare that to the Wii U / 3DS days when most major franchises would get a game on both devices. 

One more thing: I really hope Nintendo gets the message consumers are sending when it comes to Zelda games. Zelda is a game about open worlds (Links Awakening was as open as a game could get on the Gameboy) and not puzzles. But world-building is hard and the biggest danger I personally see for them is becoming lazy with the franchise again and "forgetting" to put enough energy into world-building. Twilight Princess's world was partly modelled after Ocarina of Time. Skyward Sword did not have an open world at all. They've been reusing A Link to the Past's world on the 3DS. They've remade Link's Awakening. And they are going to recycle Hyrule in Breath of the Wild 2. They are lazy world-builders, with Breath of the Wild being the glory exception. Zelda as a franchise is incredibly popular right now, but that can change. So I hope they get the message.



So should ship about 20.5m this FY. ~55.2m shipped

My prediction of 22m when they announced the Switch Lite was a little too enthusiastic.

Edit: Just saw Nintendo's revised forecast of 19.5m for the year...

But shipping just 1.76m units in Q4? Last year they shipped 2.47m, that would be down considerably YoY which seems insane.

But if they have a lot of units on shelves it makes some sense I guess.

Last edited by Barkley - on 30 January 2020

curl-6 said:

So after just a month and a half of sales, Sword/Shield is on the brink of outselling the lifetime sales of X/Y and Sun/Moon, and has already outsold Black/White.

Holy guacamole, so much for that boycott...

Graphics improvements sell games...... being stuck on 3DS, alot of people wanted to see a pokemon game running at better resolutions ect.
Same thing could happend with Switch 2, if the jump visually is big enough.



JRPGfan said:
curl-6 said:

So after just a month and a half of sales, Sword/Shield is on the brink of outselling the lifetime sales of X/Y and Sun/Moon, and has already outsold Black/White.

Holy guacamole, so much for that boycott...

Graphics improvements sell games...... being stuck on 3DS, alot of people wanted to see a pokemon game running at better resolutions ect.
Same thing could happend with Switch 2, if the jump visually is big enough.

I think it has more to do with combined home/handheld tbh. Switch is taking series sales to new heights, and I don't think that can be simply put down to graphics. After all, every previous generation has been a "graphics improvement".

It's combined sales of people who mainly game on TV and people who mainly game handheld.