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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

Nu-13 on 30 January 2020
Metroid33slayer said:

10.81 million for the quarter then which is a 1.4m increase over last years Q3. Nintendo must have altered their forecast to 20m plus for the fiscal year because it is almost at 18m with Q4 still remaining .

curl-6 said:
Metroid33slayer said:

10.81 million for the quarter then which is a 1.4m increase over last years Q3. Nintendo must have altered the forecast to 20m plus for the fiscal year because it is almost at 18m with Q4 still remaining .

Apparently they've raised the forecast to... 19.5m hahaha

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nintendo-raises-switch-sales-forecast-q3-profit-up-6-2020-01-30

lol they're gonna ship another 4-4.5m from january 1st to march 31.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 30 January 2020

Ok, I am looking at upcoming 3rd party software.  The games list for Japan looks radically different from the rest of the world.  Just going to compare Japan to the US here, but Europe is not too different from the US.

Japan
Persona 5 Scramble
My Hero One's Justice 2
One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4
Kotoba no Puzzle: Mojipittan Encore
Naruto...Ninja Storm 4...
Utano Prince Sama...Love
Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy Collection
Minecraft Dungeons
LoH: Trails of Cold Steel 3
Hatsune Miku: Project DIVA Mega Mix
Trials of Mana
Just Dance 2020

US
Kentucky Route Zero: TV Edition
Mega Man Zero/ZX Legacy Collection
Eastward
Swimsanity!
The Dark Crystal: Age of Resistance Tactics
Panzer Dragoon: Remake
Snack World: The Dungeon Crawl - Gold
Minecraft Dungeons
Oddworld Stranger's Wrath
The Outer Worlds
One Finger Death Punch 2
Samurai Shodown
Trials of Mana

These lists are radically different.  I highlighted the 3 games that appeared on both lists.  And I know Just Dance 2020 has a later release date in Japan.  But for the most part it looks like Japan and the rest of the world are getting radically different third party games.  I know Japan is a small market that rarely buys Western games, but I would think the Japanese would export their games more.  The US, for example, is a pretty big market.  What gives Japan?

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 30 January 2020

curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Nu-13 on 30 January 2020
Jranation said:
Chicho said:

I think that as the game is only a few months old number 3 is a given and number 2 Very likely. It is now nunber 7 but those 4-6  are close already. Less likely is  #1 but i  think that lifetime it has a shot. Numbers below for reference.

.

Year 
Platform 
Titles 
Sales
(millions) 
1996 GB Pokémon Red/Green/Blue 31.38
1999 GBC Pokémon Gold & Silver 23.1
2006 DS Pokémon Diamond & Pearl 17.67
2013 3DS Pokémon X & Y 16.42
2002 GBA Pokémon Ruby & Sapphire 16.22
2016 3DS Pokémon Sun & Moon 16.17
2019 NS Pokémon Sword & Shield 16.06

Wow! The fact it will beat the DS and 3DS Pokemon games is insane! Hopefully this gives the devs more motivation to create better pokemon games after the amount of criticism were thrown at them.

You realize these numbers do the opposite of that, right?



peachbuggy on 30 January 2020
trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

There were plenty of reports of it hard to find the standard Switch towards the end of the holidays. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo ends up shipping 20 million by the end of the fiscal year. 

I saw the reports too and I have heard some anecdotally as well. It seems the OG Switch was in very short supply but the lite was in good supply. So I guess your adjustments will be about right.



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Nu-13 on 30 January 2020
Barkley said:
peachbuggy said:

The numbers shipped should be way over last years' final quarter, i'd say at least 3.47, what with Animal crossing coming. There's not many OG Switches at all sitting on store shelves, just lites. So hopefully Nintendo get the balance right when shipping for this month. Your prediction of 22m shipped may be perhaps optimistic but 21m+ seems possible if not likely.

Nintendo are terrible at forecasting, their 18m forecast was obviously too low from the moment they released it, just as their 20m forecast the year before was obviously too high to everyone except them.

That being said I don't see any situation where they ship literally double their forecast for the next quarter. It's a short-term forecast now they can't be THAT wrong. I could maybe see them shipping 2.5m compared to the 1.76m forecast, but any more then that would be really pushing it imo.

Looks like you still don't understand the concept of intentionally lowballing the forecast.



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Nu-13 on 30 January 2020
RolStoppable said:
Marth said:
https://twitter.com/ZhugeEX/status/1222791103742607360/photo/1

Switch continues doing really well.

Through twelve fiscal quarters:

Switch - 52.48m
PS4 - 47.4m

The PS4 shipped 20.1m in the following four fiscal quarters, so Switch must do 15m+ to stay ahead through four years. Doable, despite the upcoming ~2m in January to March 2020.

RolStoppable said:
trunkswd said:
I've adjusted up our Switch sales to be more in line with the shipment figures. Before there was a difference of over 2.5 million. It is now around 2 million.

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

Please, tell me you're joking. We both know nintendo doesn't expect such low numbers.



Barkley on 30 January 2020
trunkswd said:
RolStoppable said:

That seems completely unnecessary. Nintendo's forecast for the rest of the fiscal year (19.5m for the year, so 1.76m to go) makes it clear that there's quite a bit of excess stock after the holiday quarter, so the previous 2.5m gap you had was going to correct itself naturally to a more sensible gap between LTD shipments and sell-through. January to March 2020 is poised to have higher sell-through than shipments.

There were plenty of reports of it hard to find the standard Switch towards the end of the holidays. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo ends up shipping 20 million by the end of the fiscal year. 

This Quarter I'd say we're pretty likely to see around 4m sold-through, with a 1.76m forecast it seems pretty clear that there's a lot of excess stock as Rol says. Sure Nintendo will likely exceed their forecast but they'll have to by quite a bit, because otherwise we'd be looking at 54m sold-through to 54.24m shipped by March 31st. 

At 20m shipped this FY it'd still be 54m sold to 54.74m shipped, very close.

VGC figures for January almost exceed the quarter forecast shipment already.



jonathanalis on 30 January 2020

Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.



Nu-13 on 30 January 2020
Barkley said:
trunkswd said:

There were plenty of reports of it hard to find the standard Switch towards the end of the holidays. Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if Nintendo ends up shipping 20 million by the end of the fiscal year. 

This Quarter I'd say we're pretty likely to see around 4m sold-through, with a 1.76m forecast it seems pretty clear that there's a lot of excess stock as Rol says. Sure Nintendo will likely exceed their forecast but they'll have to by quite a bit, because otherwise we'd be looking at 54m sold-through to 54.24m shipped by March 31st. 

At 20m shipped this FY it'd still be 54m sold to 54.74m shipped, very close.

VGC figures for January almost exceed the quarter forecast shipment already.

Funny. Not gonna happen.



pikashoe on 30 January 2020
jonathanalis said:
Pokemon beyond what I expected. not bad
Seems only mario odyssey wont get to 20M among the 16M cluster. Time for a sequel?
expected 7M from mario maker and 3.5 from fire emblem. they slowed more than I thought.
the rest kinda expected.

Odyssey actually sold better this quarter than the same quarter last year, so 20 million isn't too far out of reach.