Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

[Barkley]

peachbuggy said:

Barkley said:

So should ship about 20.5m this FY. ~55.2m shipped

My prediction of 22m when they announced the Switch Lite was a little too enthusiastic.

Edit: Just saw Nintendo's revised forecast of 19.5m for the year...

But shipping just 1.76m units in Q4? Last year they shipped 2.47m, that would be down considerably YoY which seems insane.

But if they have a lot of units on shelves it makes some sense I guess.

The numbers shipped should be way over last years' final quarter, i'd say at least 3.47, what with Animal crossing coming. There's not many OG Switches at all sitting on store shelves, just lites. So hopefully Nintendo get the balance right when shipping for this month. Your prediction of 22m shipped may be perhaps optimistic but 21m+ seems possible if not likely.

Nintendo are terrible at forecasting, their 18m forecast was obviously too low from the moment they released it, just as their 20m forecast the year before was obviously too high to everyone except them.

That being said I don't see any situation where they ship literally double their forecast for the next quarter. It's a short-term forecast now they can't be THAT wrong. I could maybe see them shipping 2.5m compared to the 1.76m forecast, but any more then that would be really pushing it imo.