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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Results (Switch 52.48m, Pokemon 16m)

curl-6 on 03 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah I can't see it coming out this year; the last three 3D Zeldas have been delayed and the last two took 5 years or more to make. They may make great games, but the Zelda team is incapable of putting out games in a reasonable timeframe.

They had delays that dealt with brand new game engines, completely fresh starts and new hardware (Wii Motion + for Skyward Sword, Switch for BotW).  None of those are applicable here.

No way Motion Plus should've necessitated a 5 year cycle, especially when the were reusing the engine and likely much of the code from Twilight Princess, and only having to build assets of Wii quality. They're just very slow at making games.



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Dulfite on 03 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
forest-spirit said:

Don't jinx it. Nintendo could potentially release a Switch Pro model and make BotW2 a Pro exclusive.

That's even less likely to happen.  They are not going to lock out 50 million Switch and Switch Lite owners from one of the most hyped games in their upcoming catalogue.

They locked out far more than 50 million 3DS owners from enjoying Xenoblade Chronicles 3D, though that isn't nearly as big of a series.



Dulfite on 03 February 2020
curl-6 said:
Dulfite said:

Since I'm doubtful Botw2 will come prior to 2021

Yeah I can't see it coming out this year; the last three 3D Zeldas have been delayed and the last two took 5 years or more to make. They may make great games, but the Zelda team is incapable of putting out games in a reasonable timeframe.

To be clear, I do believe they could release it earlier. Nintendo has been known to sit on finished games to spread releases out and keep hardware sales going. They are always focused on the long game.

Botw 2 using the same engine/art style and I'm assuming world map will make it much quicker to build than typical Zelda's. It's important to note they started this out as DLC, which means it probably isn't as taxing as a full brand new game. I don't think it comes out until 2021 because I've got a feeling some other mega hit will come out this year.

But that's not my only prediction. Because this started as DLC, I think Nintendo is secretly working on a brand new Zelda, new art style, world, etc. To be a launch title for Switch 2. And because they just said Switch is halfway through it's lifecycle, that means Switch 2 probably launches 2023, so here is what I think will happen in regards to big holiday game:

2020 -

First half - Animal Crossing

Second half - ??? Mega hit game. Some think Botw 2, some Mk9, I'm thinking something else. Also Paper Mario.

2021 -

First half - Pikmin 4

Second half - Botw2

2022 - 

First half - Super Mario Galaxy 1&2 HD bundled. $60 for one game. Completely reworked controlls to work with normal controls.

Second half - Metroid Prime 4

2023 - 

First half - Super Mario Odyssey 2 launch title.

Second half -  new3d Zelda game, brand new engine. Possibly Switch 1 version as well but I'm thinking not.



curl-6 on 03 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

No way Motion Plus should've necessitated a 5 year cycle, especially when the were reusing the engine and likely much of the code from Twilight Princess, and only having to build assets of Wii quality. They're just very slow at making games.

Wii Motion Plus itself didn't necessitate a 5 year development cycle but because Nintendo wanted to incorporate it into they game, they had to wait. 

It was also a very different art style with whole new art assets, new overworld, new gameplay, new control system, etc...   So much is different from TP to SS.

BotW2 will reuse not just the game engine but the art assets, overworld, audio, gameplay, controls, etc...

If it takes them 5 years to make an SD game, there is no way in hell they're putting out a HD game in 3/3.5 years. The only way BOTW2 is coming out in 2020 is if it really is just glorified BOTW DLC.



Nu-13 on 03 February 2020
curl-6 said:
SpokenTruth said:

They had delays that dealt with brand new game engines, completely fresh starts and new hardware (Wii Motion + for Skyward Sword, Switch for BotW).  None of those are applicable here.

No way Motion Plus should've necessitated a 5 year cycle, especially when the were reusing the engine and likely much of the code from Twilight Princess, and only having to build assets of Wii quality. They're just very slow at making games.

Engine doesn't matter, they were reusing OOT engine. SS took extra time because it was already 3 close to finished when they decided to implement motion +. This required reworking a good chunk of the game.



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Nu-13 on 03 February 2020
curl-6 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Wii Motion Plus itself didn't necessitate a 5 year development cycle but because Nintendo wanted to incorporate it into they game, they had to wait. 

It was also a very different art style with whole new art assets, new overworld, new gameplay, new control system, etc...   So much is different from TP to SS.

BotW2 will reuse not just the game engine but the art assets, overworld, audio, gameplay, controls, etc...

If it takes them 5 years to make an SD game, there is no way in hell they're putting out a HD game in 3/3.5 years. The only way BOTW2 is coming out in 2020 is if it really is just glorified BOTW DLC.

Now you're just doing it on purpose.



curl-6 on 03 February 2020

Also, according to insider Sabi who's accurately leaked heaps of stuff, BOTW2 was running behind schedule (wow, what a surprise with this team) as of last year.



curl-6 on 03 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

If it takes them 5 years to make an SD game, there is no way in hell they're putting out a HD game in 3/3.5 years. The only way BOTW2 is coming out in 2020 is if it really is just glorified BOTW DLC.

Curl, it's the same art.  Why would it take them 5 years to do the same art regardless of resolution.  

And you shouldn't use display resolution as a deterministic measure of development time.  So many other factors play into time.

But if you want another big difference?  Nintendo developed an A.I. to play BotW to do most of the QA.  That wasn't a quick or easy thing to develop. They don't have to rebuild that A.I. this time.  It's ready to go.

I wasn't using HD/SD to refer to definition literally but to the level of graphics complexity.

I'd love for BOTW2 to come out this year but historically, this team almost never delivers on time.



curl-6 on 03 February 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

I wasn't using HD/SD to refer to definition literally but to the level of graphics complexity.

I'd love for BOTW2 to come out this year but historically, this team almost never delivers on time.

Historically, this team has never made a Zelda sequel.

It being a direct sequel is what I think will shave it down from 5 years to 4.

If they had confidence it would hit this year, the E3 trailer would've ended with a "2020".

Last edited by curl-6 - on 03 February 2020

PortisheadBiscuit on 03 February 2020
curl-6 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Curl, it's the same art.  Why would it take them 5 years to do the same art regardless of resolution.  

And you shouldn't use display resolution as a deterministic measure of development time.  So many other factors play into time.

But if you want another big difference?  Nintendo developed an A.I. to play BotW to do most of the QA.  That wasn't a quick or easy thing to develop. They don't have to rebuild that A.I. this time.  It's ready to go.

I wasn't using HD/SD to refer to definition literally but to the level of graphics complexity.

I'd love for BOTW2 to come out this year but historically, this team almost never delivers on time.

I'm completely okay with them delaying, as good as BOTW is they have some major shoes to fill.