Weekly update. Overall slightly down, Europe still creeping up

In total 3.18 million new cases were reported last week (down from 3.27 million)
Also another 10,353 more deaths were reported (10,271 last week) to a total of 6,559,565

USA reported 291K new cases (down from 352K) and 2,852 more deaths (down from 3,237)
Europe reported 1.85 million new cases (up from 1.72 million) and 3,925 more deaths (up from 3,667)

The continents

Heading down everywhere except Europe.

Corners of the world

Australia still seems to be sorting out how to continue reporting, or rather worldometer is still trying to figure out what to do with it.
No big issues anyway.

Locally however, my wife's father just tested positive :( We're still hoping it's a false positive (new kind of rapid home test) but Thanksgiving won't be happening. We didn't have plans anyway, still plenty other sniffles around :/


Canada doesn't give numbers anymore, but hopitalizations and wastewater are up again

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-hospitalizations-in-ontario-reach-two-month-high-as-indicators-point-to-fall-resurgence-1.6100490

The number of people hospitalized with COVID-19 has reached a two-month high in Ontario, as most public health indicators now point to a fall resurgence of the virus.

The latest data released by the Ministry of Health suggests there were 1,465 people testing positive for COVID-19 in Ontario hospitals as of Wednesday afternoon, up from 1,265 the previous week and 1,141 on Sept. 22.

It is the highest number of people in hospital with COVID-19 since Aug. 4 and is approaching the peak of the summer wave on July 28 when 1,492 people were hospitalized.

Meanwhile, wastewater surveillance conducted by Public Health Ontario continues to point to a gradual uptick in viral activity levels in most parts of the province.


https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/what-are-ba-2-75-and-bq-1-1-the-two-emerging-covid-19-subvariants-raising-concern-among-infectious-disease-experts-1.6100637

Two new subvariants of the Omicron strain of COVID-19 identified in recent months could fuel increased cases and hospitalizations in Canada through the fall and winter, infectious disease experts say.

Experts say the variants, labelled BQ.1.1 and BA.2.75, are spreading rapidly in multiple countries. BQ.1.1 is a subvariant of BA.5 and has also been identified in the U.K. where cases have ballooned in recent weeks., while BA. 275, which the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control labelled as a variant “of interest” in September, is spreading quickly in India and Singapore.

WHAT THE EXPERTS ARE SAYING

"Globally, we've pulled back all protections and we've let it rip just about everywhere," said Colin Furness, an epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, told CTVNews.ca via a phone call.

"We're creating a massive petri dish for biodiversity. Omicron has been given every opportunity to mutate and to vary, and it's taking advantage of that," he said.

Furness says the bigger issue is that there’s an "infinite number" of other variants developing.

"So whether it's those two or another two, what we’re really doing is we're training Omicron to fit to new circumstances…including a highly vaccinated population," said Furness.

"It's developing a capacity to be more immune-escaping," he said.

Stay safe!

Death rates

Sweden had one of Europe’s lowest Covid-19 death rates despite shunning most lockdown restrictions, data released in May by the World Health Organization (WHO) suggested. It covered global excess deaths associated with Covid-19 from January 2020 to December 2021.

Stockholm chose not to implement a full national lockdown during the pandemic, instead relying on “voluntary changes to behaviour”, said The Telegraph. The decision meant the nation was “deemed almost to be a rogue state” as other countries introduced wide-ranging restrictions to stem the spread of the virus. 

But according to the WHO figures, Sweden had an excess death rate of 56 per 100,000 – well below the global average of 96. By comparison, between 2020 and 2021, the UK’s excess death rate was 109, Spain’s was 111, and Germany’s was 116.

It seems to have finally claimed me as a victim. I was only vaccinated over a year ago for the original strains, so probably no help from the vaccines. Sore throat for 2 days, high fever for a day or 2, loss of taste for 12 hours. I am almost back to 100% now, I think it will take another 2 days.

But we shall see if long covid persists in my lungs, but I don't think it will since I didn't have trouble breathing or a strong cough. Obviously my symptoms were fairly mild, all things considered, but I still hope that covid doesn't mutate more and I get it again. More annoying than yearly flus that's for sure.

Pretty bad source if they can't even get the revised numbers from the WHO study even when they have been available for months.

Sweden and Germany have been recalculated. Sweden now sits at 66 and Germany at 73.

http://faculty.washington.edu/jonno/space-station.html
http://faculty.washington.edu/jonno/COVID-Methods-Paper-Revision.pdf

Hmm Sweden actually did worse than Serbia, Malta, Germany, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Monaco, Ireland, isle of Man, Netherlands, Albania, Denmark, Channel Islands, Finland, Belarus, Norway, Iceland, faroe Islands for deaths per 1M population. While having lower population density than most of those.

Worldwide Sweden sits at 54th out of 223 on worldometer, or 169 countries/territories did better than Sweden.
Sweden not only has very low population density also the avg number of people per household is only 2.16. In Canada that's 2.9 per household and Canada sits at 88th despite our not all that closed border policies and people flaunting lock downs and social distancing measures.

So I don't agree it paid off. Sweden had everything going for it to remain Covid free like New Zealand did. Which, despite letting it run after vaccinations, still sits at 124th in the ranking for deaths per 1 million.

Sort on deaths per 1M.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Of course that's only officially reported Covid deaths, but probably still more accurate than guestimating excess deaths where other diseases and different circumstances are also a big factor.

Care to share the number of excess deaths per x population? It would give a better comparison rather just quoting where each country sits.

I can't seem to open the links you provided. 

Looking at this, however, it doesn't seem like Sweden isn't doing worse than either Germany or France:

• https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker

Sweden's number, however, is missing one month, but even accounting for that, the fact that all these countries sit close together despite how strict France measures were, is astonishing. 

With that said, I do believe lockdowns were an appropriate response but definitely not anymore unless the healthcare system can't sustain it, even then, I doubt people are willing to listen. 

They still have done better than the UK and France somehow, countries with extreme lockdown measures.

Don't get me wrong, lockdowns were necessary, they're just hardly justifiable anymore, the numbers we are all sharing with each other enforce that notion imo. 

The thing is, how many people actually followed the lock downs. Here not all that many took it seriously. And in the UK there were also plenty reports of people flaunting social distancing and lock down rules.

Working from home was done as much in Sweden as anywhere else, maybe even more. Mobility reports during that time were pretty similar, it wasn't like Sweden just went on with their business. It proves more that people do not trust the government and think they know better than the experts. Assuming the ratio of 'sane' people is similar, the ones listening to the lock downs are very similar to the ones taking their own measures in Sweden.

The lock downs might have encouraged a few more people to take care compared to Sweden, but it's nothing like the success New Zealand had. (Which of course has the benefit of being an island)

The biggest differentiators are average age of the population, population density and living conditions. Sweden sits good on all three of those for Europe.
Avg age in UK 40.3, Sweden 41.2, France 41.7, Germany 45.7
Population density per sq km. Sweden 25, France 119, Germany 240, UK 281
Avg household size in Germany 1.97, Sweden 2.16, UK 2.36, France 2.38

Europe hasn't done well overall, pretty much been the epicenter for the pandemic with the most cases and deaths.
Europe has 1,924,923 official deaths, 29% of the official total while having less than 10% of Earth's population.

Anyway lock downs were never enforced here. If they had my wife wouldn't have caught Covid twice :/ Hopefully there won't be a third time, we're staying away from her parents for now. It does seem the test had it right, her father is very sick :( Fall wave is here.

So in the end, the failure lies with the distrust governments have cultivated against them. Too many lies and omissions, too many exaggerations, too slow to respond, unable to provide tailor made solutions. And then they were to quick to declare the pandemic over, opening everything back up too soon.

Weekly update, cases and deaths slightly up driven by Europe

In total 3.32 million new cases were reported last week (up from 3.18 million)
Also another 10,620 more deaths were reported (up from 10,353)

USA reported 291K new cases same as last week, and 2,634 more deaths (down from 2,852)
Europe reported 1.92 million new cases (up from 1.85 million) and another 4,897 more deaths (up from 3,925)

The continents


Corners of the world

Japan might be getting another wave, rest is holding steady

Locally our 7th wave continues. My parents in law apparently caught Covid at the golf club as everyone there is now sick. My father in law is not doing that well, still in bed, looking grey, feeling terrible. Mother in law is doing much better, still testing positive but not feeling much more than a cold. She's mowing the lawn today. The flu variant I got through the kids from school is much worse, lasting about 4 weeks, Covid hardly affected me. Strange how Covid has such different effects on people.

Determining excess mortality gets more difficult as well with the slow down / lack of reporting.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/covid-19-fatalities-have-nearly-doubled-in-a-year-but-expert-says-omicron-deaths-may-be-even-higher-1.6109626

Since October of last year, COVID-19 fatalities have nearly doubled, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) numbers, and January 2022 saw the highest rate of excess mortality in the country after Omicron became the dominant strain.

According to Statistics Canada, the excess death rates decreased in the months that followed. But an infectious disease expert warns the true magnitude of excess mortality may be getting hidden by uneven and insufficient reporting on fatalities across provinces, leading to premature conclusions about the actual national COVID-19 mortality trends in Canada.

A recent report from Statistics Canada shows a decline in excess mortality rates after peaking in January 2022. But with the delay in death reporting, especially during the Omicron period, these provisional numbers are likely to rise as various provinces revise their death numbers for July and August, according to an analysis by a grassroots organization.

“It is important to understand that a number of provinces haven’t yet reported all their numbers or have done little reporting after January,” Tara Moriarty, an infectious disease expert at the University of Toronto and the co-founder of COVID-19 Resources Canada, a grassroots initiative, told CTVNews.ca on Thursday.


Coming Monday booster shots for BA.4 and BA.5 will be available to 12 and up. Honestly I don't know if there is much point getting it. My wife doesn't want it as the previous 3 shots just made her progressively more sick while not being any help at all when she did catch it the 2nd time. Covid doesn't seem to affect me and the vaccines don't stop you passing it on, so feels kinda pointless. Our youngest isn't eligible for the booster shot and he's the likeliest conduit to bring it back from school :/


https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-s-top-doctor-warns-of-more-recommendations-to-public-on-masking-ahead-of-difficult-winter-1.6107774

The latest data released by the Ministry of Health suggests there were 1,465 people testing positive for COVID-19 in Ontario hospitals, up from 1,265 the previous week and 1,141 on Sept. 22.

It is the highest number of people in hospital with COVID-19 since Aug. 4 and is approaching the peak of the summer wave on July 28 when 1,492 people were hospitalized.

“My recommendation would be anyone at risk to this virus continue to mask as you’re going in doors in at-risk public settings,” Moore said. “We will make recommendations to the public to mask up as we get further along.”

Singapore and the Indian subcontinent are near or past the XBB peak, BA.2.3.20 is dominant in the Philippines, and most of the western hemisphere will likely have to contend with BQ.1.1. A nice variant soup right there, but interestingly most BA.2.75 descendants flopped.