Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
Mnementh said:
sethnintendo said:

a) B- and T-cells *are* you're learned immune answer. Both cell-types react to specific proteins or other molecules. In a case of an infection the body tries to identify proteins specific to the attacker (either virus or bacteria) and reproduce B- and T-cells with receptors for that molecule. After an infection both types of cells have some variants that live longer, these are memmory cells. The memory cells can in case of a new infection with the same virus or bacteria be reproduced very quickly. B-cells produce antibodies, that connect to the molecule they identify and destroy it. T-cells kill cells that show the molecule that they identify, in case of a viral infection they kill the cells of your own body that are infected and reproduce more of the virus.

b) Scientist don't know a lot about many things. Still, they also know a lot already and this current knowledge has already applications. For how long an achieved immunity will hold: too many factors are unclear yet. That doesn't mean we can expect a long-lasting immunity.

c) Maybe. You just said scientists don't know everything. There are different projections on how many people got already infected. You chose one on the higher end. So, what scientists really say is: *up* to 20 million may have been already infected. But maybe less.

d) As I answered in a, our immune response reacts to certain molecules. If a mutation changes these molecules, so that the receptors don't work anymore, you still need a new immune respone. Your immune system may react to multiple molecules from the infection. In that case changing one molecule will lead to partial immunity, as other receptors still work. Also some receptors may check for molecules, that are needed for the functioning of the virus, so that any change in that renders the virus harmless. But it is all a maybe, maybe your immune system only picks one specific molecule, maybe that can mutate and the virus will still work.

While what you said in the other points is mostly right on a simplified fashion (although the CDC estimate lies on the lower end and a recent study argues infections in the US might be underreported 27 times), each pathogen will have a certain number of accessible antigens, and each antigen will have a number of epitopes (that is to say, parts of it to which an antibody can bind) and each of the trillion B or T cells in your organism will also have different expressivities of assembling mechanisms based on genetic factors, cytokine signaling etc.
Of course, out of these there will ultimately be convergence selected by experience on what is able to effectively protect you. But even then we are talking about a fair number of them (on average 10 - 20 for each antigen) enduring in the immune system repertoire that will balloon to the millions with somatic mutations, each with their own affinity and specificity. So to expect that immunity could depend on a single thread that might break at any moment at the whims of pathogen mutation and cellular death is as naïve as believing you can forget your mother exists if one of your neurons randomly dies.
That being said, someone, somewhere, will probably be unlucky enough to have such a crap immune response that they will be able to be reinfected in a month, while a few people, a bit like the MERS study I've cited earlier, that will not only be immune to it for life, but also won't contract any coronavirus strain ever again.


 

 

 

 

 

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Since there where only two states where the number of new cases declined last the US death toll will be over 250K eventually.



Chris Hu said:
I hate to say it the death toll in the US will be over 200K. It hasn't even peaked in a lot of states yet. Can't see a rapid decline of new cases anytime soon.

200k deaths is nothing. We need 5+ billion deaths.



Weekend numbers are getting better and better.

In Europe France and Denmark don't bother to report anymore next to Sweden while in Canada Quebec joined BC in not giving out numbers in the weekend anymore. In the states Tennessee, Idaho and Rhode Island remained silent.

Not that it matters, still 114% week over week change worldwide, US still at 140% week over week. One thing is for sure now, summer heat is not making it go away.



sethnintendo said:
Chris Hu said:
I hate to say it the death toll in the US will be over 200K. It hasn't even peaked in a lot of states yet. Can't see a rapid decline of new cases anytime soon.

200k deaths is nothing. We need 5+ billion deaths.

the IFR is somewhere between 0,7% and 1,2%.
It cant kill that many even if you didnt do anything to stop spread or treat the infected.

Also they found out which medicine that works against it now, so its less dangerous than it was at first to get it.

Last edited by JRPGfan - 4 days ago

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SvennoJ said:
Weekend numbers are getting better and better.

In Europe France and Denmark don't bother to report anymore next to Sweden while in Canada Quebec joined BC in not giving out numbers in the weekend anymore. In the states Tennessee, Idaho and Rhode Island remained silent.

Not that it matters, still 114% week over week change worldwide, US still at 140% week over week. One thing is for sure now, summer heat is not making it go away.

Summer heat isnt bad, if it means you eat outsides, when you go to a bar/dinner to get food.
Summer heat is bad if its so hot, it means you need A/C to get through it, so everyone packs inside small spaces, breathing the same air.

I actually think that the nice weather in europe, means we re more likely to be outsides, instead of insides (bars, dinners ect), so that might be helping slightly lessen spread. Are you a group of friends, that wants to get together to drink? bring your own, have a picnick instead of clumping together in some bar or disco. Also eating outsides, and enjoying the scenery and good weather, while being alot more protected from the virus, is a good thing.


Yeah its odd they didnt bother giveing numbers for the weekend.
We have like ~900 active cases, 31 in the hopsital, and 10 in the ICU (4 ppl on ventilators).

We have a track the virus update on one of our news sites, that shows the graph for hospitalisations.
You can see its still dropping (very slowly though), so hopefully the spread is still going downwards.



I'm so relieved that the Swedes have done everything correctly, the only issue that the entire world doesn't understand them and their brilliance. On the flipside, Swedish media and officials have a full and comprehensive take on the goings-on in other nations, naturally.



Mummelmann said:
I'm so relieved that the Swedes have done everything correctly, the only issue that the entire world doesn't understand them and their brilliance. On the flipside, Swedish media and officials have a full and comprehensive take on the goings-on in other nations, naturally.

Number of daily cases start climbing early june in Sweden.
What happend, you guys were basically holding even, in daily cases for along time, and the last 2-3 weeks its been climbing upwards.
So far deaths seem to hold stable too (which is good, not seeing more deaths dispite more cases).


You guys are 55th in testing ranked by test/1m population.
However your positivity rate is only ~15%, so your testing actually isnt that horrible.
(the USA has a positivity rate of ~8,1% of their tests, Brazil ~45%, UK ~3,9%, Mexico ~39%)

I think the spread of the virus in sweden actually isnt as bad as many probably think.
Ei. the % of the population who have been infected is probably not that high.

Last edited by JRPGfan - 4 days ago

JRPGfan said:

Summer heat isnt bad, if it means you eat outsides, when you go to a bar/dinner to get food.
Summer heat is bad if its so hot, it means you need A/C to get through it, so everyone packs inside small spaces, breathing the same air.

I actually think that the nice weather in europe, means we re more likely to be outsides, instead of insides (bars, dinners ect), so that might be helping slightly lessen spread. Are you a group of friends, that wants to get together to drink? bring your own, have a picnick instead of clumping together in some bar or disco. Also eating outsides, and enjoying the scenery and good weather, while being alot more protected from the virus, is a good thing.


Yeah its odd they didnt bother giveing numbers for the weekend.
We have like ~900 active cases, 31 in the hopsital, and 10 in the ICU (4 ppl on ventilators).

We have a track the virus update on one of our news sites, that shows the graph for hospitalisations.
You can see its still dropping (very slowly though), so hopefully the spread is still going downwards.

The initial hope in Februari was that heat and humidity would slow it down, no clue if it does but doesn't seem so.

The difference atm is not eating at restaurants (they were closed) to now being packed together on patios. Better than inside of course, worse than take out. Packed on the beaches, large park picnics are back, crowding around snack stands etc.

What I see locally is tourism starting up again, the rubber boats on the river are back, 10 people per boat, lots of canoes and other things as well. Whole groups going down together and then they get transported back to the rally point in small vans. Sadly the rescue helicopters were out already last night, 16 year old missing. There are dangerous currents under the bridge a bit upstream from my house, no clue if anything happened there yet now they are advising to launch downstream from our house. Ah update just in :( https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/brantford-teen-drowning-grand-river-1.5630978

Europe wants to start up international tourism as well. It seems everyone has forgotten that the bulk of the spread is through asymptomatic carriers. South Korea, Japan and now Australia are still not safe. Even New Zealand has been reporting cases again.

Imo it's too soon to pretend everything is fine again, which is what I see outside and in governments slowing down on testing/reporting instead of stepping up track and trace efforts. It's still left up to the people here to go get tested when they feel symptoms. At least the border is still mostly closed and the 14 day quarantine is still in effect for some coming in. (Trucks crossing the borders are exempt, as well as Americans going to Alaska and back. So it's only returning Canadians that have to quarantine)

I'm cancelling my chiropractor appointments again for now. Small old building, low ceilings, small air volume, lots of traffic with people waiting and being there for 20 minutes or more, no mask use. The chance of catching anything is very low, but I feel more comfortable in the supermarket with its huge air volume, big fans and half the people wearing masks. The earlier you go, the less contaminated the air will be as well. (Any airborne virus should not survive the night)



SvennoJ said:

The initial hope in Februari was that heat and humidity would slow it down, no clue if it does but doesn't seem so.

If it did, then how would countries in tropical or subtropical desert regions have been heavily affected by the virus? Singapore, Brasil and pretty much the entire Middle East for instance are heavily affected despite the heat of desert regions and heat and humidity of tropical forests. And it's also strongly ramping up in Africa now, which could become very devastating to the entire continent.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - 4 days ago