Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
JRPGfan said:
Mummelmann said:
I'm so relieved that the Swedes have done everything correctly, the only issue that the entire world doesn't understand them and their brilliance. On the flipside, Swedish media and officials have a full and comprehensive take on the goings-on in other nations, naturally.

Number of daily cases start climbing early june in Sweden.
What happend, you guys were basically holding even, in daily cases for along time, and the last 2-3 weeks its been climbing upwards.
So far deaths seem to hold stable too (which is good, not seeing more deaths dispite more cases).


You guys are 55th in testing ranked by test/1m population.
However your positivity rate is only ~15%, so your testing actually isnt that horrible.
(the USA has a positivity rate of ~8,1% of their tests, Brazil ~45%, UK ~3,9%, Mexico ~39%)

I think the spread of the virus in sweden actually isnt as bad as many probably think.
Ei. the % of the population who have been infected is probably not that high.

Well it's incredibly bad when you compare it to other Nordic states, however it's "just" bad when comparing it to other European countries like Spain, Italy or the UK.

On a worldwide scale, there are definitely countries that handled it even worse but aren't quite there yet due to testing even less and undercounting deaths. Brazil probably being the worst at the end of the day.



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Bofferbrauer2 said:
SvennoJ said:

The initial hope in Februari was that heat and humidity would slow it down, no clue if it does but doesn't seem so.

If it did, then how would countries in tropical or subtropical desert regions have been heavily affected by the virus? Singapore, Brasil and pretty much the entire Middle East for instance are heavily affected despite the heat of desert regions and heat and humidity of tropical forests. And it's also strongly ramping up in Africa now, which could become very devastating to the entire continent.

Yep, it seemed for a long time Africa would be spared a big outbreak but they have been growing steadily as well.
Australia just did things right, nothing to do with the heat.



JRPGfan said:
Mummelmann said:
I'm so relieved that the Swedes have done everything correctly, the only issue that the entire world doesn't understand them and their brilliance. On the flipside, Swedish media and officials have a full and comprehensive take on the goings-on in other nations, naturally.

Number of daily cases start climbing early june in Sweden.
What happend, you guys were basically holding even, in daily cases for along time, and the last 2-3 weeks its been climbing upwards.
So far deaths seem to hold stable too (which is good, not seeing more deaths dispite more cases).


You guys are 55th in testing ranked by test/1m population.
However your positivity rate is only ~15%, so your testing actually isnt that horrible.
(the USA has a positivity rate of ~8,1% of their tests, Brazil ~45%, UK ~3,9%, Mexico ~39%)

I think the spread of the virus in sweden actually isnt as bad as many probably think.
Ei. the % of the population who have been infected is probably not that high.

I think they started testing a lot more, they are only now implementing the main strategy that WHO recommended in March, which is to trace the infections and find who spreads it and how. The Swedish death toll is climbing and the only countries ahead in deaths per capita are nations that were considered disasters and even epicenters of the early pandemic, two microstates, and one country with a 10% bigger population on roughly 1/15 of the geographical area. It's a disaster, to put it mildly. Swedish media and politicians are busy engaging in one out of two strategies right now; one being shifting focus over on privatization and how it's to blame for the whole crisis (despite this being provably false) and the other being standing in a circle and pointing fingers at one another, regions, municipalities, the government, and the health authorities are all effectively blaming one another. If all else fails; blame the population for not following guidelines that were obtuse and anemic to begin with. And there are so many other bits and pieces that just blows the mind.

About infection rates, I'd say I agree with you, but this is another point where authorities have had zero inklings as to the actual state of things. In April, they stated that by May the 1st, at the very least 25% of Stockholm would carry antibodies. The antibody tests that came in during the last few days of April showed a mere 7.5 % or thereabouts. Authorities then complained that these were probably imprecise and too dated, and they would order a new batch of tests, these would for sure show numbers well above 25%. The mathematician who devised the algorithm they used clearly stated that they were probably way off in their base numbers (contrary to the authorities' position). The insufferable prof. Johan Gisecke has jumped between anything from 25 to 60% immunity in Stockholm before summer. When confronted with this flip-flopping, he merely stated: "we'll let that slide", and to make matters worse, it turned out that his "independent" advice and opinions in both domestic and international interviews were actually paid for by the health authorities.
The new batch of antibody tests arrived in early-mid June, and showed that about 17.5 % of the population in Stockholm carried antibodies, the majority of which work in sectors and positions that expose them more often, or simply people who had likely experienced mild symptoms at some point and thus were more likely to get tested.

Honestly, I'm shocked at how badly handled this is here in Sweden. No one is taking responsibility, measures have been taken to cover up the number of deaths or infections in certain areas, bogus confidentiality claims have been clamped on documents and correspondence to make it harder for the media to get to the bottom of things and people are pretending that well-known factors speaking against their "strategy" of choice doomed it from the beginning were somehow shocking reveals in hindsight clarity (chiefly the lackluster situation in retirement facilities and care centers for elderly and their woeful lack of protective gear all over the country). Goddamn. And still, they insist that it's all down to the entire world "not understanding" the situation or "having the wrong image" and not actual incompetence on their part.



What irritates me most atm is the level of inconsistency and still hearing (on the radio) that masks are probably useless (but wear them anyway to make other people feel better). They are not useless sigh.

Inconsistencies:
- Supermarket, some patrons wear masks, staff doesn't, nor gloves while handling everything.
- Vet clinic, wait outside on the parking lot, they come get your dog with their leash, wearing gloves and a mask, no people allowed inside.
- Golf course, staff wear masks and gloves (outside) and clean the carts after use.
- River tours, no masks, 10 per boat, everyone together in vans to be driven back.
- Chiropractor / health center, no masks or gloves (staff not patients) just some extra cleaning.
- Restaurants/bars, cramped make shift patios on the sidewalk / parking spaces, at least not inside... no masks.



Current forecast

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/hotspots-linger-more-young-people-getting-covid-19-new-modelling-1.5004137

New national modelling on the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada shows that “hotspots” remain in Ontario and Quebec, and the percentage of younger people contracting the virus has increased in proportion to a decrease in older patients in the last month.

Federal health officials are projecting that as of July 12 the country could see between 103,940 and 108,130 cases, and between 8,545 and 8,865 deaths. To-date there are 103,818 confirmed Canadian COVID-19 cases, of which 64 per cent have recovered, while there have been 8,566 deaths.


On the right track for now, however we just went into phase 2 re-openings last Friday.

Dr. Tam said that in order for COVID-19 to “die out” in Canada, effective reproduction number (Rt) — the average number of people infected by each case—needs to remain below one, and Canada’s Rt rate has been less than one for eight weeks.

Tam also cautioned that outbreaks have also recently been linked to social gatherings, particularly in closed settings with close contacts like funerals or other family gatherings. She is advising people to limit keep the number of close contacts people have and avoid enclosed and crowded spaces.

Tam warned earlier this month, that Canada could see “explosive growth” in new cases if reopening is not done with caution. The figures showed that, if the spread prevention measures are insufficient, Canada could have another peak come October.


Testing still insufficient

Going forward she said the capacity for contact tracing and isolating new cases will need to continue to increase. Over time the testing rates and case detection have sped up, though Canada is still only testing on average of 38,000 people daily, when Tam has previously said the target is closer to 60,000.



Living in a summer tourist hot spot, we better stay extra careful. Cases went back up today, 9% increase compared to last Monday's 3 day average. The decline was only temporary :/ And while it's moving more among younger people, that also means more asymptomatic cases and cases with mild symptoms for which people might not bother to go get tested.


Wednesday is Canada day, we'll see how that goes. People have been setting off fireworks for the last couple days already, they can't wait. It's very dry outside as well, tinder box...



sethnintendo said:
Chris Hu said:
I hate to say it the death toll in the US will be over 200K. It hasn't even peaked in a lot of states yet. Can't see a rapid decline of new cases anytime soon.

200k deaths is nothing. We need 5+ billion deaths.

No disease could cause that many deaths.  A giant meteor maybe.



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China has greenlit the military use of a vaccine candidate that showed promising results in Phase I and II trials.

This marks the first approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for use outside clinical trials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-approved-for-military-use-in-china-idUSKBN2400DZ



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

I think I'm going to do weekly updates for that chart I posted last week, at least as long as things are still bad:

This is just getting absurd. Over half of all new cases in SC to date have been in just the past three weeks. We're going to have another lockdown at this rate. I hope everybody enjoyed the past two months of being able to go restaurants, beaches, and salons.

In related news, my sister discovered the "Bill Gates will use COVID-19 vaccines to implant us with microchips" conspiracy that's been making the rounds, and, predictably, she decided that sounds completely plausible. Of course, she also thinks the outbreak itself is a made-up hoax just to control people. I swear, how in the blue hell does anyone come to believe in ridiculous bullshit like that? She's one of those people who never saw a conspiracy theory they thought was ridiculous, like we're living in the world of The X-Files or something. I just don't understand the mindset of people who believe in conspiracy theories. Considering how screwy my family is, I wonder how I turned out the exact opposite.



curl-6 said:

China has greenlit the military use of a vaccine candidate that showed promising results in Phase I and II trials.

This marks the first approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for use outside clinical trials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-approved-for-military-use-in-china-idUSKBN2400DZ

See? That's what I was talking about. IT HAS to be done this way; there's simply no time to be waiting for Phase III to complete.



Wtf is happening in the US. Over 40k cases on a Monday. I understand states like Georgia and Florida who didn't take the pandemic seriously spiking but California, Washington, and Ohio and other states that took the pandemic seriously are spiking. Im starting to get worried the rest of the country is going to make it worse for us in the northeast again. Pennsylvania is even starting to crack. They were are 300-400 daily cases for most of the month but now at 500-600. I really hope things dont start to get worse again here in NY.



chakkra said:
curl-6 said:

China has greenlit the military use of a vaccine candidate that showed promising results in Phase I and II trials.

This marks the first approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for use outside clinical trials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/cansinos-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-approved-for-military-use-in-china-idUSKBN2400DZ

See? That's what I was talking about. IT HAS to be done this way; there's simply no time to be waiting for Phase III to complete.

I still think taking this approach for the general population would be far too risky. What if it kills people with a specific pre-existing condition? What if it only works in 75% of cases, so people lose faith in vaccination and we never get a high enough immunity coverage to eliminate the disease?

There's already multiple candidates in Phase III, we need to hold on until one of these proves out as both safe and effective before beginning widespread vaccination. Note that even China isn't giving the test vaccine to its general population.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.