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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

SvennoJ said:
The numbers coming out of Europe atm are pretty scary, 282K new cases yesterday and averaging 2500 deaths daily.
Italy is getting hit hard again as well, did they not learn from the first wave :(
Now the USA is starting to build a second wave as well. At least India and Brazil are still declining but for how long.

The advice here atm is
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canadians-need-to-cut-contacts-by-25-per-cent-to-curb-second-covid-19-wave-modelling-1.5167784
Basically leaving it up to the people to 'fix' it. That hasn't worked so far :/

If your just going by " worldometers.info/coronavirus/ " and europe tab, remember the population of all those countries is like ~750m.
(twice that of the USA easily, even if supposedly the US has more people tested possitive for corona).

Another thing is US counts deaths due to corona differntly than many european countries.
Esp, after it was handed over to the whitehouse under trump to collect data (taken out of the hands of the CDC).
In europe alot of countries count any death they find that has tested positive for corona as "death due to it".
While in the US you basically go out of your way to blame it on other things (he died with corona, but it was just a heart attack).

At this point, total infected and deaths due to it, cant even be compaired from country to country due to how differntly each one goes about it.

Next year, countries that collect data on deaths, will be able to look at excess deaths in these time periodes, and come to some sort of idea of the actual extent, this thing had.

case in point:
USA has excess mortality of 300,000 in 2020 (so far) (while its only counted 234,000 deaths to corona)

(source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/20/cdc-data-excess-deaths-covid-19/)

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 30 October 2020

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Yeah its bizzare whats happening in Europe right now. Its like they didn't learn from the first wave.



JRPGfan said:
SvennoJ said:
The numbers coming out of Europe atm are pretty scary, 282K new cases yesterday and averaging 2500 deaths daily.
Italy is getting hit hard again as well, did they not learn from the first wave :(
Now the USA is starting to build a second wave as well. At least India and Brazil are still declining but for how long.

The advice here atm is
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/canadians-need-to-cut-contacts-by-25-per-cent-to-curb-second-covid-19-wave-modelling-1.5167784
Basically leaving it up to the people to 'fix' it. That hasn't worked so far :/

If your just going by " worldometers.info/coronavirus/ " and europe tab, remember the population of all those countries is like ~750m.
(twice that of the USA easily, even if supposedly the US has more people tested possitive for corona).

Another thing is US counts deaths due to corona differntly than many european countries.
Esp, after it was handed over to the whitehouse under trump to collect data (taken out of the hands of the CDC).
In europe alot of countries count any death they find that has tested positive for corona as "death due to it".
While in the US you basically go out of your way to blame it on other things (he died with corona, but it was just a heart attack).

At this point, total infected and deaths due to it, cant even be compaired from country to country due to how differntly each one goes about it.

Next year, countries that collect data on deaths, will be able to look at excess deaths in these time periodes, and come to some sort of idea of the actual extent, this thing had.

case in point:
USA has excess mortality of 300,000 in 2020 (so far) (while its only counted 234,000 deaths to corona)

(source: https://www.statnews.com/2020/10/20/cdc-data-excess-deaths-covid-19/)

Yep, I know. I was more comparing it to the first wave in Europe which topped at 54K new cases in a single day (April 4th), now already 5 times that. Of course there is a lot more testing now and the highest recorded single day death toll (4722 on April 2nd) hasn't been reached yet. However with 2500 deaths yesterday and the day before and a current growth of 1.38x per week (and accelerating), it will only be 2 weeks to surpass that. At this point that might happen even if Europe goes into full lock down right now. Deaths lag about 2 weeks behind.

Some countries also started counting less deaths by Corona btw. Spain made major adjustments for example, Russia does its own thing. There were still plenty excess deaths in many European countries as well. And yep the USA data is flawed and a hot political issue.

Perhaps we'll never know the exact amounts since excess deaths don't tell all anymore since all the measures also prevent flu deaths (great!) and less travel and work related incidents. Suicide deaths are probably up but not by that much to even it out.

Anyway, Europe let it get too far again :/



Excess deaths might not be an exact metric since we have more people dying from stroke and cardiac arrest, and deaths increase yearly on their own accord in developed countries as their populations age. 2015 had 80,000 less deaths, and 2019 had 62,000 deaths above the 2015-2019 average, for instance.

So the US would have some 90,000 "excess" deaths above the 2015-2019 average all along in normal circumstances.

IcaroRibeiro said:

With over 500 deaths in a day on France are people still pretending second wave is not dangerous and everything must stay open because... well reasons?  

If I'm not mistaken, the timeframe from infection to death is about 5 weeks, so this number will just go up this November, poor Europe

The time of illness onset to death is about 10 days on average. It might be slightly over 2 weeks counting incubation.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

Also that France number is because they randomly account for non-hospital deaths all at once occasionaly. That's why they had peaks of over 2,000 daily deaths in the first wave. Situation's bad over there but not that bad.

Last edited by haxxiy - on 30 October 2020

 

 

 

 

 

Im seeing a lot of people I know posting about parties on Instagram and they're only giving the location to people to dm them to avoid these parties being shut down. I wanna say something but I don't wanna be that guy.



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haxxiy said:

Excess deaths might not be an exact metric since we have more people dying from stroke and cardiac arrest, and deaths increase yearly on their own accord in developed countries as their populations age. 2015 had 80,000 less deaths, and 2019 had 62,000 deaths above the 2015-2019 average, for instance.

So the US would have some 90,000 "excess" deaths above the 2015-2019 average all along in normal circumstances.

IcaroRibeiro said:

With over 500 deaths in a day on France are people still pretending second wave is not dangerous and everything must stay open because... well reasons?  

If I'm not mistaken, the timeframe from infection to death is about 5 weeks, so this number will just go up this November, poor Europe

The time of illness onset to death is about 10 days on average. It might be slightly over 2 weeks counting incubation.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6928e1.htm

Also that France number is because they randomly account for non-hospital deaths all at once occasionaly. That's why they had peaks of over 2,000 daily deaths in the first wave. Situation's bad over there but not that bad.

The difference is, the first wave everything was still an unknown. The second wave we knew full well that it was coming. All the deaths caused during the second wave were preventable. Let's see how many deaths those 3 months of all the way back to normal were worth.

To switch back to that earlier story about 4 babies being denied heart surgery due to travel restrictions in Australia. Australia was pretty much rid of the virus, then due to lax travel and quarantine restrictions a new wave broke out that infected about 20,000 people and cost nearly 900 lives.

Europe had its lowest Covid-19 death toll between Aug 21-28, 2,118 for that week.
Had they maintained that, Europe would now have been at 226.0K deaths. (or less since it was declining)
Europe is currently at 261.7K. 35,700 deaths that could have been prevented so far.



jason1637 said:
Two back to back days of over 500k cases.

Make that three.

Also US with 101k cases today. Yikes.



Double post 



US over 100k in a single day...



New records all around and it's gonna get so much worse now that winter is starting and people spend more time indoors. We're gonna be back to massive lockdowns before the end of November.

And it all could've been prevented.



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