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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Snoopy said:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/07/elon-musk-calls-coronavirus-panic-is-dumb/

I actually agree with Elon Musk.

People panic too much especially when it didn't even reach their region/city but there is a reason why the experts who know more about it don't feel like it's just nothing bad to care about and there is a reason why countries do so much more against it than against some normal flu. It simply is worse than a normal flu or something similar bad and without all these measurements it would spread even faster. 

But I understand him. He is one of the richest people on the planet because other people invest money in his ideas since 20 years and Tesla still needs that money because Tesla can't exist without it yet. I also wouldn't like to see all those people who give me always money to lose a lot of money (at least for some time)  so that some might invest less in me. Just imagine next time he wants 3 billion he only would get 1 for Tesla. 

I guess it will hit every car manufacturer but as a company which still needs so much extra investments from outside to realize their projects, every extra loss doesn't sound that nice.

Also not sure why it's so important what he says about it. He isn't an expert for this and doesn't know more about it than your neighbor or us in this forum^^



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Snoopy said:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/07/elon-musk-calls-coronavirus-panic-is-dumb/

I actually agree with Elon Musk.

Panic is dumb. Just keep on living as usual "Elon Musk isn’t worried about coronavirus — and doesn’t think anybody else should be either." is just as dumb probably even worse. First stage, denial.



John2290 said:
Wtf... SARS was never cured? There was and still is no vaccine for it? What... We are ecpected to have SARS-CoV2 floating around the planet seasonally with no cure? Please someone tell me that that is BS and that SARS only treatment is drugs that aren't a direct vaccine...

SARS was just too vicious to contaminate many people before panic set in and preventive measures brought down basic reproduction numbers below one. No one cared much for a vaccine because the viral strain simply vanished after a few months.

There's no financial incentive or immediate need for something that no longer exists.



 

 

 

 

 

vivster said:

It really is quite dumb. Basically all of the deaths were people with preexisting conditions or without access to proper healthcare. I actually find it a bit disingenuous to count every single death as caused by corona even if the person had already bad health to begin with. I mean a normal cold can knock out someone with full blown aids or a respiratory disease but we would never count that as a death caused by cold.

The virus has shown that it is overall very weak and will cause no or very mild symptoms in the vast majority of people. It obviously cannot deal well with a functioning immune system. Which makes it equal to many mild diseases we deal with on a daily basis. Give it another year and this pandemic will become simply endemic and nobody will even give a shit.

Compare this with the recent surge of people condemning vaping while they're still completely fine with smokers killing themselves and others in the millions. 1 billion people who are slowly killing themselves and others? Completely fine. 100k people who have a little sneeze? GLOBAL HEALTH CRISIS!

On average 15% of active cases are considered serious/critical and need to be hospitalized, with many in the ICU on ventilators to get through this disease. Yes, it's primarily the old and those with pre-existing conditions not surviving, but there are many more needing serious care.

This was the tally in Italy yesterday
778 new cases and 49 new deaths in Italy. Total cases: 4,636. Total deaths: 197. Active cases: 3,916.
- Among the 3,916 active cases, 2,394 (61%) are hospitalized, 462 of which (representing 12% of active cases) are in intensive care.
- Among the 720 closed cases, 523 (73%) have recovered, 197 (27%) have died.

We simply do not have the capacity to hospitalize that many people if the current trend continues. China had the resources to build giant field hospitals and get the best equipment to keep people alive. Some other patients did suffer though as entire wings of hospitals were reserved for covid-19 patients. Death rate will unfortunately go up once the healthcare system can't keep pace anymore.

Are you suggesting just to let it play itself out, another flu strain culling the weak? Btw sneezing is not a symptom.

Today:
1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy [source]
Percentage of deaths by age group:
90+ years old: 6% of deaths
80 - 89 years old: 42% of deaths
70 - 79 years old: 35% of deaths
60 - 69 years old: 16% of deaths

- Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care
- Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 07 March 2020

SvennoJ said:
vivster said:

We simply do not have the capacity to hospitalize that many people if the current trend continues. China had the resources to build giant field hospitals and get the best equipment to keep people alive. Some other patients did suffer though as entire wings of hospitals were reserved for covid-19 patients. Death rate will unfortunately go up once the healthcare system can't keep pace anymore.

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.



 

 

 

 

 

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haxxiy said:

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.

True, but then you have also reached the maximum negative impact to the economy. China is big enough to close down a few cities, 80K infected on a population of 1.3 billion, plenty resources to lessen the blow. It can always flare up again of course, coming back to China from new outbreaks. Everyone staying home for over a year until a vaccine is available isn't much of an option either. The problem atm is that it's seeding itself all over the world and gets to spread locally until drastic measures are put in place or people stay home. At least that's what I'm reading from the statistics coming out of Europe.



haxxiy said:
SvennoJ said:

We simply do not have the capacity to hospitalize that many people if the current trend continues. China had the resources to build giant field hospitals and get the best equipment to keep people alive. Some other patients did suffer though as entire wings of hospitals were reserved for covid-19 patients. Death rate will unfortunately go up once the healthcare system can't keep pace anymore.

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.

If the Coronavirus goes around for longer, it could endanger many festivals and sports events.

The spring cycling races in northern Italy have all been cancelled until further notice by now, with more races risking to be cancelled, too. With the virus spreading very fast in Belgium, the spring classics may very well be at risk. And with Italy, France and Spain having growing numbers, even the 3 great Tours may be at risk later on, especially the Giro and the Tour.

Football and other sports with huge venues look like perfect breeding grounds for the virus by now, so I suspect that if the season won't get cancelled, they might be forced to play in empty stadiums if it continues to spread so fast throughout Europe.

But the biggest one who could end up cancelled (or at least delayed) due to the Coronavirus are the Olympic Games in Tokio. While the games themselves are still a ways off, the torch relay is about to start, and could be relaying some other thing to the public, too.



SvennoJ said:
haxxiy said:

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.

True, but then you have also reached the maximum negative impact to the economy. China is big enough to close down a few cities, 80K infected on a population of 1.3 billion, plenty resources to lessen the blow. It can always flare up again of course, coming back to China from new outbreaks. Everyone staying home for over a year until a vaccine is available isn't much of an option either. The problem atm is that it's seeding itself all over the world and gets to spread locally until drastic measures are put in place or people stay home. At least that's what I'm reading from the statistics coming out of Europe.

Yeah, more outbreaks like the ones I've mentioned are probably inevitable at this point. The question is where they'll happen and how long they'll last until they're contained. If they aren't, we're potentially looking at a significantly greater than 2009 economic downturn, plus death rates some 10% above basal rates in 2020 for most developed countries.

It'd be the greatest "before and after" in the international community since the collapse of the Soviet Union.



 

 

 

 

 

John2290 said:
This is the big one. Even if it the stats are half what they are now or a quarter, this is going to stress the planet more than anything in the last 60 years. There is no looking away from this as anything other than a slow moving disaster, The system can't cope with these numbers. It's like looking at a flow of lava coming towards you while stuck in quick sand. There's nothing we can do, just have to trust in the system as shoddy as it is and hope that some ditch digging by the powers that be will slow the lava. The ditch digging now just happens to be stemming panic and people all around are ready and willing to let those soothing words put them at rest while ignoring that stats. I hope to fuck these numbers can be slowed drastically but even when they are halfed and halfed again they keep adding up over time. By May the western world is going to be a shit show and if it can be slowed it'll just be june, slowed more and it's July. We might just have to face the reality that Chinas method of locking people in their homes is the only way to aboid the lava flow and if the lava analogy escapes people or It's inadequate I mean the damn medical infrastructure and that of our economy holding it up. It'll be interesting to say the very least to see how and who handles this and in what way.

2020 is fucked, I wanna sleep til 2021.

It is an aggressive flu without a vaccine and that makes the weaker humans victims even more as previous years,my sister works at an institute for heavily mentally and physically handicapped people and each year viruses that are deemed not so bad end those lives,the weak die constantly without anyone caring on a level like this.

Now some healthy people think this current case will effect their own life so it is suddenly important to put so much attention towards it,the reality is that for ourselves the danger is almost laughable compared to those that are always exposed to these dangers. 



SvennoJ said:
haxxiy said:

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.

True, but then you have also reached the maximum negative impact to the economy. China is big enough to close down a few cities, 80K infected on a population of 1.3 billion, plenty resources to lessen the blow. It can always flare up again of course, coming back to China from new outbreaks. Everyone staying home for over a year until a vaccine is available isn't much of an option either. The problem atm is that it's seeding itself all over the world and gets to spread locally until drastic measures are put in place or people stay home. At least that's what I'm reading from the statistics coming out of Europe.

One question that bugged me while reading this is are the persons who had Covid-19 now immune to it or could they relapse again if the virus came back in a couple months or so? Do we have any information on that?