Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[haxxiy]

SvennoJ said:

haxxiy said:

To be fair, there are negative feedback loops at play in here, like we're seeing in Daegu and Wuhan. When we're at the point that hospitals are almost full at a given location, I doubt there'll be enough people in the streets, schools, social events etc. anymore to keep an outbreak sustainable for much longer.

True, but then you have also reached the maximum negative impact to the economy. China is big enough to close down a few cities, 80K infected on a population of 1.3 billion, plenty resources to lessen the blow. It can always flare up again of course, coming back to China from new outbreaks. Everyone staying home for over a year until a vaccine is available isn't much of an option either. The problem atm is that it's seeding itself all over the world and gets to spread locally until drastic measures are put in place or people stay home. At least that's what I'm reading from the statistics coming out of Europe.

Yeah, more outbreaks like the ones I've mentioned are probably inevitable at this point. The question is where they'll happen and how long they'll last until they're contained. If they aren't, we're potentially looking at a significantly greater than 2009 economic downturn, plus death rates some 10% above basal rates in 2020 for most developed countries.

It'd be the greatest "before and after" in the international community since the collapse of the Soviet Union.