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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

Torillian said:
Jumpin said:

Not shocked at all. Based on Trump comments, it seems that they're going to do whatever they can to keep reports low for political reasons. It's sad that this sort of thing happens.

But what's even more sad is Trump's messaging, declaring the US has among the best numbers in the world. Has no one told him that high numbers are NOT the best when talking about a deadly pandemic!

I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases. When you look at it that way the "fatality rate" has gone down almost a factor of ten according to him. Checking this myself you can see that our highest death rate was around April 21st with 2700 deaths with 26,000 new cases or a little over 10% while it's been as low as 600 deaths with 46,000 new cases (a little over 1%). I would be curious who around him clued him into this math trick that makes rising case counts a good thing. 

The thing is death lags by upto a month or there abouts.
So deaths your seeing now, are from "daily new cases" a month ago.

Go back to early June, and the USA was at around ~20,000-25,000 cases daily.
So it makes "sense" that the USA only had 935 deaths yesterday to Corona virus.

Now, then factor in that most of this is going to be happending from states were they dont report "probably or likely" cases even if a doctor is more or less sure, covid19 is what killed them. Only if they had a actually test come back possitive before death, do they get maked down as deaths caused by it.  Real numbers, are likely 20% higher.

Time:
Incubation periode  2-13 days  (avg 6-7days)
Symptomatic  7-14 (sometimes upwards of 21) days (varies from person to person)
complications (you go to the hospital)   xx-yy days
ICU (it got worse even with the hospital helping) xx-yy days

You can see, that deaths from today.... are (in alot of cases) from infections more than a month ago.

"I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases."

^ I hope Trump isnt that stupid, no one should be that dumb.


Basically  from 20,000-25,000 (a month ago) to now 65,000+ daily, is a rise of 2,6x - 3.2x.

This means that in August (next month) you should be seeing  2430 to 3040 deaths daily. 
(todays deaths, times the rise, tomorrows(month from now) deaths)
(real numbers likely to be 20-30% higher)


*edit:
This is assumeing, that your hospital system keeps doing as well as it is currently doing.
What we re hearing in the news, is that the hospitals are running out of space/bed, and cant care for everyone equally, and are starting to offer "crisis care" were they pick and choose, who they want to spend efforts safeing. We're also hearing that "couple dozens" of patients at some hospitals are waiting hours, before getting a bed+care. Imagine haveing trouble breathing, when you come in with corona, and your being told "wait a moment" and they come back 2hours lateron, and your dead sitting in your chair.

So deaths will likely be higher.
Wouldnt be surprise if theres a day it goes over 4k / day next month in the US.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 July 2020

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JRPGfan said:
Torillian said:

I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases. When you look at it that way the "fatality rate" has gone down almost a factor of ten according to him. Checking this myself you can see that our highest death rate was around April 21st with 2700 deaths with 26,000 new cases or a little over 10% while it's been as low as 600 deaths with 46,000 new cases (a little over 1%). I would be curious who around him clued him into this math trick that makes rising case counts a good thing. 

The thing is death lags by upto a month or there abouts.
So deaths your seeing now, are from "daily new cases" a month ago.

Go back to early June, and the USA was at around ~20,000-25,000 cases daily.
So it makes "sense" that the USA only had 935 deaths yesterday to Corona virus.

Now, then factor in that most of this is going to be happending from states were they dont report "probably or likely" cases even if a doctor is more or less sure, covid19 is what killed them. Only if they had a actually test come back possitive before death, do they get maked down as deaths caused by it.  Real numbers, are likely 20% higher.

Time:
Incubation periode  2-13 days  (avg 6-7days)
Symptomatic  7-14 (sometimes upwards of 21) days (varies from person to person)
complications (you go to the hospital)   xx-yy days
ICU (it got worse even with the hospital helping) xx-yy days

You can see, that deaths from today.... are (in alot of cases) from infections more than a month ago.

"I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases."

^ I hope Trump isnt that stupid, no one should be that dumb.


Basically  from 20,000-25,000 (a month ago) to now 65,000+ daily, is a rise of 2,6x - 3.2x.

This means that in August (next month) you should be seeing  2430 to 3040 deaths daily.
(real numbers likely to be 20-30% higher)


*edit:
This is assumeing, that your hospital system keeps doing as well as it is currently doing.
What we re hearing in the news, is that the hospitals are running out of space/bed, and cant care for everyone equally, and are starting to offer "crisis care" were they pick and choose, who they want to spend efforts safeing. We're also hearing that "couple dozens" of patients at some hospitals are waiting hours, before getting a bed+care. Imagine haveing trouble breathing, when you come in with corona, and your being told "wait a moment" and they come back 2hours lateron, and your dead sitting in your chair.

So deaths will likely be higher.
Wouldnt be surprise if theres a day it goes over 4k / day next month in the US.

Well you're ignoring that testing has increased quite a bit as well. It won't be that bad.

Also it seems to be a little more spread out between the states compared to the first peak in the NY region.



Your right Barozi, I didn't factor in, changes in testing.
Is the US testing twice as much now, as it was say a month ago? how big a increase in testing was there?
What were positivity rates then and now, vs testing cases then and now?
maybe its not quite as bad as I imagined... and slightly milder. 

Still seems like its gonna get alot worse than currently.... so its faulty to look at todays deaths, vs daily new cases, and think "this is fine".
Its just the lag time, between infections and deaths.



I wonder how much that testing is just athletes, rich people and politicians being tested over and over again.  Sure probably not huge number but when they say 40 million tests have been completed I bet around 5% are the same elites being tested constantly.

Last edited by sethnintendo - on 15 July 2020

sethnintendo said:

I wonder how much that testing is just athletes, rich people and politicians being tested over and over again.  Sure probably not huge number but when they say 40 million tests have been completed I bet around 5% are the same elites being tested constantly.

The Antibody tests, are going towards the total "tests" even if they shouldn't.
(anti body tests shows who's had it, not who has it now, to prevent spread, which is what the testing in this matter is about, find you have it & isolate, and stop spread).

Another issue is that some places in the US, they are reporting that it takes 7-9 days to get the test results back.

A person with a mild case, barely aware that they *might* have corona virus.
Could still go outsides, mingle, go to work, if they dont "for sure" know they have the virus and are spreading it.
9 days lateron, they get the results back "you have covid19", and by then they might have recovered from their mild case.
However they still infected alot of others during that same time periode.

Which makes the test itself worthless.
Testing needs to be 1-2days to get a answear at most.
That way you can curb, the infected infecting others.

Doesnt matter if you test 500,000 people and say 100,000 antibody tests (600k combined), if most of that testing data is useless for preventing spread. (ei. its about people that already had it, or the results go back to the tested too slowly to matter)

edit:
*retesting is helpfull though.
Some people (such as leaders) cant afford to be missing for long periodes so you want them and people around them tested often.
Just because you test negative for the virus, doesnt mean you cant get it the next day/week, so its helpfull that they use testing often.

You could argue its unfair, that those with money can easily get tested and quick results, while others might not be able to get tested, and have to wait in long ques in car lines for 12+ hours, and only get results back like 9days lateron.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 July 2020

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JRPGfan said:

Your right Barozi, I didn't factor in, changes in testing.
Is the US testing twice as much now, as it was say a month ago? how big a increase in testing was there?
What were positivity rates then and now, vs testing cases then and now?
maybe its not quite as bad as I imagined... and slightly milder. 

Still seems like its gonna get alot worse than currently.... so its faulty to look at todays deaths, vs daily new cases, and think "this is fine".
Its just the lag time, between infections and deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Mid June:

About 450k-500k tests/day

Positivity rate of 4.5%.

~20k infected a day

Mid July:

About 720k tests/day (+44-60%)

Positivity rate of 8.8% (+96%)

~60k infected a day (+200%)

If the US only tested 475k in mid July they would have 42k infections a day (assuming positivity rate would stay the same (doubtful but eh).)
About double the amount of infections per day so about double the amount of deaths doesn't sound unlikely, HOWEVER as I already mentioned it's a little more spread out compared to what happened mostly in NY and NJ and on top of that we know that the average age of a patient is much younger now than it was during the last peak, so deaths won't increase nearly as much.

I could see a 1.5x increase, so about 1500 deaths/day for a while.



Barozi said:
JRPGfan said:

Your right Barozi, I didn't factor in, changes in testing.
Is the US testing twice as much now, as it was say a month ago? how big a increase in testing was there?
What were positivity rates then and now, vs testing cases then and now?
maybe its not quite as bad as I imagined... and slightly milder. 

Still seems like its gonna get alot worse than currently.... so its faulty to look at todays deaths, vs daily new cases, and think "this is fine".
Its just the lag time, between infections and deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Mid June:

About 450k-500k tests/day

Positivity rate of 4.5%.

~20k infected a day

Mid July:

About 720k tests/day (+44-60%)

Positivity rate of 8.8% (+96%)

~60k infected a day (+200%)

If the US only tested 475k in mid July they would have 42k infections a day (assuming positivity rate would stay the same (doubtful but eh).)
About double the amount of infections per day so about double the amount of deaths doesn't sound unlikely, HOWEVER as I already mentioned it's a little more spread out compared to what happened mostly in NY and NJ and on top of that we know that the average age of a patient is much younger now than it was during the last peak, so deaths won't increase nearly as much.

I could see a 1.5x increase, so about 1500 deaths/day for a while.

The positivity rate makes it hard to say if it ll only stay around that level.... I think.
It makes you question, if the increased testing is even that (leading to a higher number), because remember that for every person you test, theres potentially 5-10 others out there you miss (*edit: this is just speculation though). Obviously with double the positivity rate, that means theres even more out there, ei. testing is not keeping up with infection rates that go undetected -> positivity rates go up.  This basically means that actual infections (not just confirmed cases) could be higher, and not just due to more testing.

In china they asked people not only to wear masks outsides, but also insides their own homes.

They found out that over 70% of infections that lead to deaths, where caused by your own loved ones.
Ei. someone gets infected, goes home, and infects others in the house/family.

So if there is now more 20-35 year olds, acting recklessly and getting the virus, it means a week from now, there will be family members getting infected. Which again, means a week + 1 month lateron, more deaths. You can tell Im a pessimist? I dont believe it will just all magically be alright.

This virus doesnt just stay with the younger crowd.... those young men and women, who will surive this virus (most likely) will go home, and get their parents and grandparents killed.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 July 2020

https://globalnews.ca/news/7177914/brantford-ont-passes-mask-bylaw-coronavirus-update/

Brantford, Ont. will enter Stage 3 of the province’s COVID-19 reopening plan on Friday with a mandatory face mask bylaw for public spaces.

Councillors said yes on Tuesday to the draft brought forward by the city’s emergency operations centre (EOC) last week.

I truly hope most people will think of wearing a mask not as an infringement of their freedom, but rather the simplest, easiest act of kindness they can show their fellow citizens,” Mayor Kevin Davis said during deliberations during a special council meeting.



This is the stuff that worries me:

During a pandemic update on Tuesday, Brant County’s acting medical officer of health reported two positive COVID-19 test results connected to three Brantford-area workplaces. Dr. Elizabeth Urbantke said a second employee at the Lowe’s Brantford location tested positive in early July. Brant County’s Health Unit (BCHU) says the transmission details of this case are still under investigation, but it’s believed the case is unrelated to a previous case revealed on July 7.

We believe this case is unrelated to the previously announced case at this workplace and was acquired from interactions outside of the store,” said Urbantke.

The only reason that person went in to get tested is because of now having the spotlight on that store. So how many infectious undetected cases are there.

Last edited by SvennoJ - on 15 July 2020

EricHiggin said:

I'll save you the time, by pointing out that it's about what's essential to the individual first, and the community second. The question you aren't asking is, is the job essential to me? If the answer to that happens to be no, as in I don't so much require the money, then you can't help but ask why am I doing it then, or more importantly, why have I gone back to that sector of work again? Maybe it potentially has to do with my morals? Considering trades aren't exactly a dime a dozen, the more specialized one's even beyond that, and what they provide tends to be deemed as necessity in today's world.

Ignoring all the other pointless irrelevant rubbish (I.E. Memes/Gifs/Videos) you posted...

An essential worker is someone who provides an essential service in order for a standard of living to be maintained and necessities provided to an entire society.
Thus any personal "opinions" on whether something is essential or not as you may not use a particular service or product is thus moot, personal situation and opinion has nothing to do with it.

Those who work in the food industry preparing, packaging and delivering food is such an essential worker, you might grow your own food, doesn't stop them being an essential worker for society.

Those who work to deliver and support water and electricity being delivered to our homes are an essential worker, you might use rain water and solar power, doesn't stop those services being essential to support society.

A firefighter is an essential worker, because life, property and the environment still needs to be protected.

That. Is an essential worker... And those are the workers that need to keep working during a pandemic... And those are the workers we need to protect during a pandemic in order to provide essential goods and services to keep society functioning.

The key words "society functioning". Not "Eric functioning".



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

JRPGfan said:
sethnintendo said:

I wonder how much that testing is just athletes, rich people and politicians being tested over and over again.  Sure probably not huge number but when they say 40 million tests have been completed I bet around 5% are the same elites being tested constantly.

The Antibody tests, are going towards the total "tests" even if they shouldn't.
(anti body tests shows who's had it, not who has it now, to prevent spread, which is what the testing in this matter is about, find you have it & isolate, and stop spread).

Another issue is that some places in the US, they are reporting that it takes 7-9 days to get the test results back.

A person with a mild case, barely aware that they *might* have corona virus.
Could still go outsides, mingle, go to work, if they dont "for sure" know they have the virus and are spreading it.
9 days lateron, they get the results back "you have covid19", and by then they might have recovered from their mild case.
However they still infected alot of others during that same time periode.

Which makes the test itself worthless.
Testing needs to be 1-2days to get a answear at most.
That way you can curb, the infected infecting others.

Doesnt matter if you test 500,000 people and say 100,000 antibody tests (600k combined), if most of that testing data is useless for preventing spread. (ei. its about people that already had it, or the results go back to the tested too slowly to matter)

edit:
*retesting is helpfull though.
Some people (such as leaders) cant afford to be missing for long periodes so you want them and people around them tested often.
Just because you test negative for the virus, doesnt mean you cant get it the next day/week, so its helpfull that they use testing often.

You could argue its unfair, that those with money can easily get tested and quick results, while others might not be able to get tested, and have to wait in long ques in car lines for 12+ hours, and only get results back like 9days lateron.

I was just saying that some people (mainly trump) like to act like the 40 million test equals 40 million people when in actuality some people have been tested numerous times.

You see that news that they no longer sending hospital data to CDC but now to HHS.  Looks like someone might be busting out their sharpies soon on the data.

Remember if we did half as many testing then there would be even less cases and if half of that even less.  If we did no testing then it would be gone.  -stable genius