Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[JRPGfan]

Barozi said:

JRPGfan said:

Your right Barozi, I didn't factor in, changes in testing.
Is the US testing twice as much now, as it was say a month ago? how big a increase in testing was there?
What were positivity rates then and now, vs testing cases then and now?
maybe its not quite as bad as I imagined... and slightly milder. 

Still seems like its gonna get alot worse than currently.... so its faulty to look at todays deaths, vs daily new cases, and think "this is fine".
Its just the lag time, between infections and deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Mid June:

About 450k-500k tests/day

Positivity rate of 4.5%.

~20k infected a day

Mid July:

About 720k tests/day (+44-60%)

Positivity rate of 8.8% (+96%)

~60k infected a day (+200%)

If the US only tested 475k in mid July they would have 42k infections a day (assuming positivity rate would stay the same (doubtful but eh).)
About double the amount of infections per day so about double the amount of deaths doesn't sound unlikely, HOWEVER as I already mentioned it's a little more spread out compared to what happened mostly in NY and NJ and on top of that we know that the average age of a patient is much younger now than it was during the last peak, so deaths won't increase nearly as much.

I could see a 1.5x increase, so about 1500 deaths/day for a while.

The positivity rate makes it hard to say if it ll only stay around that level.... I think.
It makes you question, if the increased testing is even that (leading to a higher number), because remember that for every person you test, theres potentially 5-10 others out there you miss (*edit: this is just speculation though). Obviously with double the positivity rate, that means theres even more out there, ei. testing is not keeping up with infection rates that go undetected -> positivity rates go up.  This basically means that actual infections (not just confirmed cases) could be higher, and not just due to more testing.

In china they asked people not only to wear masks outsides, but also insides their own homes.

They found out that over 70% of infections that lead to deaths, where caused by your own loved ones.
Ei. someone gets infected, goes home, and infects others in the house/family.

So if there is now more 20-35 year olds, acting recklessly and getting the virus, it means a week from now, there will be family members getting infected. Which again, means a week + 1 month lateron, more deaths. You can tell Im a pessimist? I dont believe it will just all magically be alright.

This virus doesnt just stay with the younger crowd.... those young men and women, who will surive this virus (most likely) will go home, and get their parents and grandparents killed.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 July 2020