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JRPGfan on 15 July 2020
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Torillian said:
Jumpin said:

Not shocked at all. Based on Trump comments, it seems that they're going to do whatever they can to keep reports low for political reasons. It's sad that this sort of thing happens.

But what's even more sad is Trump's messaging, declaring the US has among the best numbers in the world. Has no one told him that high numbers are NOT the best when talking about a deadly pandemic!

I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases. When you look at it that way the "fatality rate" has gone down almost a factor of ten according to him. Checking this myself you can see that our highest death rate was around April 21st with 2700 deaths with 26,000 new cases or a little over 10% while it's been as low as 600 deaths with 46,000 new cases (a little over 1%). I would be curious who around him clued him into this math trick that makes rising case counts a good thing. 

The thing is death lags by upto a month or there abouts.
So deaths your seeing now, are from "daily new cases" a month ago.

Go back to early June, and the USA was at around ~20,000-25,000 cases daily.
So it makes "sense" that the USA only had 935 deaths yesterday to Corona virus.

Now, then factor in that most of this is going to be happending from states were they dont report "probably or likely" cases even if a doctor is more or less sure, covid19 is what killed them. Only if they had a actually test come back possitive before death, do they get maked down as deaths caused by it.  Real numbers, are likely 20% higher.

Time:
Incubation periode  2-13 days  (avg 6-7days)
Symptomatic  7-14 (sometimes upwards of 21) days (varies from person to person)
complications (you go to the hospital)   xx-yy days
ICU (it got worse even with the hospital helping) xx-yy days

You can see, that deaths from today.... are (in alot of cases) from infections more than a month ago.

"I'm pretty sure what Trump is doing to tout low fatality numbers is to take the current daily death rate divided by the current daily new cases."

^ I hope Trump isnt that stupid, no one should be that dumb.


Basically  from 20,000-25,000 (a month ago) to now 65,000+ daily, is a rise of 2,6x - 3.2x.

This means that in August (next month) you should be seeing  2430 to 3040 deaths daily. 
(todays deaths, times the rise, tomorrows(month from now) deaths)
(real numbers likely to be 20-30% higher)


*edit:
This is assumeing, that your hospital system keeps doing as well as it is currently doing.
What we re hearing in the news, is that the hospitals are running out of space/bed, and cant care for everyone equally, and are starting to offer "crisis care" were they pick and choose, who they want to spend efforts safeing. We're also hearing that "couple dozens" of patients at some hospitals are waiting hours, before getting a bed+care. Imagine haveing trouble breathing, when you come in with corona, and your being told "wait a moment" and they come back 2hours lateron, and your dead sitting in your chair.

So deaths will likely be higher.
Wouldnt be surprise if theres a day it goes over 4k / day next month in the US.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 15 July 2020