Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Barozi]

JRPGfan said:

Your right Barozi, I didn't factor in, changes in testing.
Is the US testing twice as much now, as it was say a month ago? how big a increase in testing was there?
What were positivity rates then and now, vs testing cases then and now?
maybe its not quite as bad as I imagined... and slightly milder. 

Still seems like its gonna get alot worse than currently.... so its faulty to look at todays deaths, vs daily new cases, and think "this is fine".
Its just the lag time, between infections and deaths.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states

Mid June:

About 450k-500k tests/day

Positivity rate of 4.5%.

~20k infected a day

Mid July:

About 720k tests/day (+44-60%)

Positivity rate of 8.8% (+96%)

~60k infected a day (+200%)

If the US only tested 475k in mid July they would have 42k infections a day (assuming positivity rate would stay the same (doubtful but eh).)
About double the amount of infections per day so about double the amount of deaths doesn't sound unlikely, HOWEVER as I already mentioned it's a little more spread out compared to what happened mostly in NY and NJ and on top of that we know that the average age of a patient is much younger now than it was during the last peak, so deaths won't increase nearly as much.

I could see a 1.5x increase, so about 1500 deaths/day for a while.