Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

You concerned yet?

Yes 85 48.02%
 
No, but I will be followi... 50 28.25%
 
No, its being overblown 42 23.73%
 
Total:177
Trumpstyle said:
forest-spirit said:

Are you sure you aren't mixing things up? The Ministry of Health and Public Affairs (Folkhälsomyndigheten) released a report today predicting that 32% of Stockholm are/have been infected by the first day of May. But the data used in that report is from a study made between 27 March and 3 April where 707 people were tested.

As for the clip you posted, just to be clear, Jan Albert and Tom Britton are not from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Jan Albert is from Karolinska University Hospital and worked with the before mentioned test where 11 out of 100 test subjects were infected, and that's the test from which I suppose you got the 70-80% accuracy number from. This test is not to be confused with the report from the Ministry of Health and Public Affairs.

Tom Britton is a professor in mathematical statistics at Stockholm University, who estimates that 30% of the population of Stockholm has already been infected at some point.

Yep you're right on both count, I thought Jan Albert worked at our CDC (folkhälsomyndigheten) but he does not and our CDC is predicting by 1 may a third of Stockholm will be infected by the covid virus.

I didn't mention Tom britton, he think 25-40% of Stockholm right now is infected.  
(tom britton sounds stupid (in interviews), what he says goes against basically what everyone else says, even your own "folkhälsomyndigheten". So lets just ignore what hes saying) (its based on faulty data from a standford university study, to make a math model, that makes wrong asumptions from the start)

https://www.bt.dk/samfund/virusforskere-opbygning-af-flokimmunitet-er-tvivlsomt

^ in danish (but as a swede you should be able to read it, otherwise google translate)

"Immunity is currently suspected to only last upto 1-2 years."
"Gaining flock immunity could take as long as 5 years to reach"  - Astrid Iversen (professor of virology&immunity at Oxford University)


"Baseret på al den forskning, der findes om coronavirusser generelt, vil den ny coronavirus sandsynligvis følge samme mønster og give samme immunrespons, som coronavirusser i udgangspunktet gør, nemlig en ganske kortvarig beskyttende immunitet." - Astrid Iversen

(translation:  "Based on all research, there currently is on coronavirus's in general, this new coronavirus will likely follow the same paterns and give the same immuneresponces as other coronaviruses do, namely a relatively short lasting immunity" )


"Så antistofferne vil med al sandsynlighed være væk, inden vi har opnået flokimmunitet, siger hun til Berlingske." - Astrid Iversen

(translation: "so antibodies will with all likelyhood be gone, before we have reached meaningfull herd immunity, she says to Berlingske (newspaper)")


"Flokimmunitet vil medføre megen sygdom og død og kan med al sandsynlighed alligevel ikke lade sig gøre, siger Astrid Iversen."

(translation: "herd immunity, would result is alot of sickness and deaths and will in all likelyhood not even be possible, says Astrid Iversen" )


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlVU8XTLICI


WHO ~2-3% infected
Neatherlands bloodtesting ~3% infected.
(contradicts the standford university study data, which is likely faulty) (but which everyone uses in models to claim spread is more than it is)

Astrid Iversen actually believes spread isnt fast enough to reach 60%+ before your 1-2year immunity falls away.
Basically with social distanceing, and people not wanting to get this (and thus naturally trying to avoid getting it), it wont spread fast enough to reach herd immunity before you have people loseing immunity to it.

The "way" to get herd immunity, would be to basically force people to get infected then.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 21 April 2020

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4/21 Charts:

All Tier 1 and 2 nations are looking great except the US, Sweden and Russia.  All 3 just had new peak death counts for a single day.

Saudi Arabia and Singapore have both had back to back (or longer) periods of 1,000+ new cases. For Saudi Arabia, each day is extremely close to the previous days.  This could indicate a recent increase in testing and this is the maximum daily test count.

Switzerland has really shut their new case count down.  With over 28,000 total cases, they only had 119 new cases today.

Last edited by SpokenTruth - on 21 April 2020

Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Ka-pi96 said:
John2290 said:

I don't get it. I said war and famine, not the end of the world. Things that have occurred repeatedly though out history with only change as a result, often for the better. A few hundred million deaths aswell as a few wars isn't the end of the damn world. And at any rate, read todays report from the WHO and label them the doomsayers for warning of the potential of 130m starving before the end of 2020. 

Personally, I think we'll likely see deaths with nine zeros attached to the end by the time we rebuild from this is it stays the current course. That's not the end of the world.

People in this thread have a lot of optimism towards the outcomes here but it's blind or willfully ignorant and I've also noticed it's the "end of the world" only when it gets to peoples doorsteps. You're afraid, I get that yet shaming me for pointing out something you can well see yourself if you're willing to look isn't reducing that fear, it's you putting your fingers in your ears like a child hoping the world will somehow magically change. 

I'll not mention it again until the news reports it cause that has somehow become the factor in what is real or not anymore. 

That wasn't just aimed at that one post. Except for a brief period where you calmed down a little your entire time in this thread has been nothing but you panicking like mad.

It isn't the end of the world.

The virus isn't going to kill everybody.

China isn't going to kill everybody.

We don't need "a new world order".

Just calm down and stop freaking out already.

So much straw. Saying war and famine are going to kill a few hundred thousands into the billion mark is not the same as saying it's the end of the world. You said that. As for the Virus, it's the catalyst so inderectly it will be the cause of surplus deaths over the next few years and China? When did I say I can predict how Geopolitics and the global landscape will evolve over the course of this, I've only given assumptions based on who is in play now and who is making moves. I said Russia would push into Eastern Europe and crank up the heat in the middle east but it's assumtions. I don't know how the conflicts will be fought, where the scarcity will cause them to erupt first or between who. I just admit to the fact that there will be conflict and famine unless this disaster somehow skips all the patterns of history. When you look at history you get A and B and you can assume C to a high degree of accuracy by transposing it onto the present. C = War, famine and more disease ontop of covid and it also means a world after that comes out (most likely) better in the years after rebuilding. 

I'm not freaking out, I admit I did freak out when they weren't taking the virus seriously but I've been at the same level of alertness I was since we went into full lockdown here, no less, no more. Looks to me like people here are the ones who are afraid, same shit months ago when people couldn't accept the reality of the virus, now people are having a hard time accepting what comes next, why not accept it and prepare in your life where you can. 



 

China Numba wan!!

Pemalite said:
The_Yoda said:

Multitude is a little misleading 3 or 4 strains (2 respiratory & 2 stomach typically) isn't how I personally would define a multitude.

I would. Either way it's just semantics.




Semantics ... 3 or 4 is the same as "a large number" ... really?



4/20 White House Press Briefing excerpts:


Q The second question I had was about your language and how you approached the coronavirus at the beginning. I interviewed someone who said that his family got sick. They went to a funeral in mid-March, and they said mainly because the President wasn’t taking it seriously. He said, “If the President had had a mask on, if he was saying we should stay home, then I would have stayed home. Instead I had family members…”

THE PRESIDENT: Well, I know. I understand.

Q I just want to — and he said his family members were sick because they were — they were listening to you. Do you feel like or are you concerned that downplaying the virus maybe —

THE PRESIDENT: Yeah.

Q — got some people sick?

THE PRESIDENT: And a lot of people love Trump, right? A lot of people love me. You see them all the time, right? I guess I’m here for a reason, you know? To the best of my knowledge, I won. And I think we’re going to win again. I think we’re going to win in a landslide.

I will begin to periodically post excerpts from his daily campaign rallies, er....I mean White House briefings as they relate to the pandemic.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

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The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.



SvennoJ said:
The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.

Wow.  Can you give this its own thread.  I think it's warranted. 



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

vivster said:
Barozi said:
We're a few days past Easter so I guess numbers should be more or less accurate again.
Lockdown seems to have worked quite well in Germany as new infections have decreased quite a bit.



Peak was at the beginning of April. Also about 66% have recovered. Will be interesting to see what effect the lifting of some of the restrictions will have. Probably not that much considering they were rather minor.

We won't see the effects of Easter until later with incubation time and all.

That's not what I was trying to say. We've reached a point where testing capacity is back on track and all tests that were made during Easter (and the WE after that) have been added to the tally.



chakkra said:
vivster said:

You're contradicting yourself. If China is becoming more self sufficient by people pulling out then what will they gain from war? How will that war look like? Will they just hop over to Japan and take stuff? Why?

If anyone actually believes he can unify the world then that person is probably not in politics right now. China can't even keep a tiny nation like Taiwan from revolting and you think they're gonna go to war with other nations?

China's government are total assholes, but if they have shown anything in the past decades it's that they're not idiots. Only idiots go to war.

I'm seriously concerned about what Trump might do after all of this is over. I suspect that he has been looking for an excuse to attack China for a long time now. I just hope the other segments of U.S. government are strong enough to stop him.

People in his government so far have done a great job at keeping him on a leash. If it comes to something as serious as starting an actual war they'll oppose him even stronger. Trump is a pussy and he doesn't like to push past resistance, so he'll just drop it and go golfing.

KiigelHeart said:
vivster said:
Still don't like how heavily under reported US deaths are. People are dying at home in the thousands.

How can they be sure which deaths are caused by corona? Lockdown and hysteria will also kill people.

Here in Finland, doctors are worried that many severely ill people aren't going to the hospitals anymore. 30% less people have gone to cardiologists for example. They're afraid to catch corona but end up being at for greater risk staying at home.

I'd expect this has been far worse in US past month with all the panic. And there was been much more people dying by heart failures...

The panic isn't even close to being as much as causing a multitude of additional heart failures. They're diagnosed as such because they're not tested for anything else. You know what else makes your heart stop beating? Not being able to breath.

Since the US has a vested interest to cover up COVID19 deaths I doubt we'll ever get any accurate numbers before the year is over and we get a tally of total deaths. Of all the western countries the US should not only have the most COVID19 deaths but also by far the most deaths caused indirectly due to people not getting the care they need.



If you demand respect or gratitude for your volunteer work, you're doing volunteering wrong.

SvennoJ said:
The death toll of one man's rampage in Nova Scotia now stands at 22, compared to 10 covid19 deaths there... The worst mass shooting in modern Canadian history. No clue yet what set him off but since he was wearing a police uniform and had made his car look like a police car, definitely well planned. It was also a 100km rampage leaving 16 crime scenes behind before he got shot in a standoff with police.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/portapique-shooting-memorials-april-21-1.5539894

I wonder if the doom and gloom or lock down from the corona virus set him off. Around the world crime rates are dropping since the lock downs:
https://time.com/5819507/crime-drop-coronavirus/
Yet I suspect domestic violence got worse.

the anti-virus measures definitely didn't "set him off", but the state of affairs might have provided him the opportunity to act out his fantasies he clearly had beforehands (which is why he had police-disguise at the ready)

Last edited by Lafiel - on 22 April 2020