Bit of a trick/tricky question in a few ways, but for one, if the economy doesn't come back, then you can pretty much forget about bringing dead people back period, so it better be able to come back strong, if that's the point of course.

The question would be like asking, 'Which one would we have a better chance at? Saving people's lives from Covid 19, or keeping the economy quite strong?' The question to that answer is pretty obvious, yet that wasn't even up for debate because saving as many people as possible was seen as much more important. So really, is the question worth asking in the first place?

Unfortunately I can't take that very seriously. So far the professionals educated guesses have been quite poor in this situation.

If team America, world police, did nothing about 911/terrorism, and does nothing going forward, where would we be exactly?

I don't know anyone who can reliably tell the future, or who can guarantee a different specific past outcome if changes were made.

Millions would die for nothing if nothing was done.
Millions will now die for something as governments and communities work together.

In Sweden the numbers look really really bad but outside of Stockholm(county) we havent really been hit that hard.
Stockholm with surrounding areas stand for over 50% of all deaths.
Sadly we were to slow with our restrictions so the elderly homes got hit really hard before we did anything, I think 80% of the dead in Sweden from this virus is 70+ years old.

1) dead is dead, and not coming back, reguardless of how the economy is.

2) "it better be able to come back strong, if thats the point of course"  
The reason for the shutdowns, wasn't to "help the economy come back", but to safe lives.

3) "Which one would we have a better chance at? Saving people's lives from Covid 19, or keeping the economy quite strong"
They are both connected. You cant have a healthy economy if people are scared to go out, if they notice people dropping like flies.
Also their not equal. A economy can recover, a dead person wont be brougth back to life, lateron. 
The virus is gone now, its safe to come back to life!  Doesnt work like that.

I think scientists have a pretty good idea now.

If you look at CFR, it varies from country to country (right now in the USA its at 20%, other places its lower).
However due to antibody tests, you can kinda get a idea of how many are actually infected, and compaire that to the deaths to get a idea of IFR (deaths per infected).

IFR is looking like its slightly above 0,7% (currently).
Various countries with antibody tests have come out with IFR numbers of so.

So we can know a possible "worst" case situation now.
We can know a "what if we did nothing and it just spread until ~70% for herd immunity.
(and our health care system didnt collapse)

Brazil is about a week or two away from hospital collapse (they say so themselves, atleast).
If that happends, its IFR will go from those ~0.7% and upto potentially 5% (john campbell estimate).
So its one too keep your eyes on, if their deaths start Sky rocketing up in a week or two, we'll start to get a picture of what happends if you went for the economy instead of saveing lives.

I'll give an update about The Netherlands. Lately the number of new hospitalisations is barely visible on the charts they put out so I guess that's good. Raw numbers from today;

• Newly reported cases; 253
• Newly reported hospital admissions; 13
• Newly reported deaths; 27

Graph of hospital admissions, it's been low for the entire month now and dropped as fast as it rose.

Graph of deaths by date of occurrence, continuing its linear decline. It's waiting on the first day that there's no newly reported deaths.

Occupancy of Covid-19 patients in the ICU by date. A near uninterrupted decline since 7 April. There's also a single Dutch patient in a German ICU.

And some other data. The first graph is about the percentage of positive Covid-19 tests in patients. Now about 5-6% of conducted tests are positive, down from 30% at it's peak. As a sidenote though, at the peak only selected groups of people could be tested because of the shortage of tests. This has been expanded in the previous weeks. From next month on, everyone who wants to be tested is able to. This means in the last few weeks much more tests have been conducted than in the earlier stages. Last week over 32k tests were done, while in the week of the peak under 25k tests were done. In the week of 13 April to 19 April, over 40k tests were done.

Lastly because we were on the topic of excess deaths, a graphs of total deaths by month in the last three years. They've been keeping track of that in the same report. The yellow band is the long term average range. Most of the short but tall peak in 2020 is explained by Coronavirus deaths obviously, yet there's a total of a little under 3000 deaths unaccounted for. Unaccounted for as in; those weren't tested for the virus. I don't believe this means we have 3000 more Corona related deaths than has been reported though, since there's a similar peak 2018 mostly caused by just the regular flew. They've been suspiciously quiet about why 2018 has just as high an excess (lower peak, but lasted longer) death rate as 2020. Belgium has been counting all their untested excess deaths towards Covid-19 if I'm not mistaken it seems, and I believe they're actually over-counting. There has been some criticism towards their method of counting, but I'm not entirely sure, not all Belgium news makes it across the border.

So long story short. The lines go down, which is good.

Yea my parents moved to Galveston a couple years ago and I wasn't too excited that they did.  My first exposure to Galveston was back in my college days first spring break we went to Crystal Beach.  I've been on a few Caribbean cruises before that and to some decent beaches in Florida so when I first stepped foot in Galveston it was a let down.  Luckily once we got to Crystal Beach the sand and beach area seemed a lot better along with less seaweed. 

South Padre is probably best beach in Texas but that isn't really that great either.  A lot better than port lavaca though...  Should be called port lacaca.

Little off topic on beach talk but yea I think they should have beaches opening up now.  The spring breakers are gone so most would be families that would probably adhere to distancing.  It was probably good idea to shut them down in March and possibly May but now most the out of town or state partiers are gone.

Where is that 0.7% coming from?

That would put the total cases at about 47 million (329.3K / 0.007), 20 days ago. May 1st had 3.4M total reported cases (3.398M)
Thus the estimate is that cases are 14x under reported on average.

CFR for the USA is 8.4% atm (Reported deaths today / reported cases May 1st)


Anyway damned if you do, doomed if you don't. That kinda sums up the situation.



If only we had spend more time and money on preparing for and preventing viral outbreaks instead of focusing on terrorism, which is by far the smallest cause of death. Of course terrorism hurts the economy, so that's why it gets all the attention.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/us/terrorism-gun-violence/index.html

Just learned that British are about as poor as Americans when looking at the lower income class. I thought they paid their lower wage workers better than here.

"According to the Money Advice Service, about 17 million people in Britain have less than 100 pounds ($122) in savings to dip into when a crisis strikes and those working in some of the sectors worst hit by the pandemic are particularly vulnerable."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-credit-ins/britons-spurned-by-banks-caught-in-a-coronavirus-credit-crunch-idUSKBN22X0IR

"CFR for the USA is 8.4% atm (Reported deaths today / reported cases May 1st)" - SvennoJ

I just looked at worldometers.info, under USA.
Closed Cases : 466,195 (cases closed with outcomes):
= 371,077 (80%) (recovered or discharged) + 95,118 (20%) (deaths)

"Where is that 0.7% coming from?" - SvennoJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDQieIJc6Zc

Boston: (~5mins+ into the video)
Anti body showed about ~9.9% of their 780,000 population had it.
551 deaths / 78,000 = 0.7%
Their "offical" confirmed cases, tested positive is like 11,000, but they suspect actual number that have had it is around ~78,000.

Theres been like 5-6 other places/countries were the same.
(in a area of spain with ~5% infected, their IFR was the same).
Im just to lazy to go look through that many old videos of his.

Even long ago, he suspected the IFR to be around 0,5% to 1%.
More and more, its looking like its atleast over 0.7%.

"It's all over the place, and that while a lot of deaths are still uncounted based on excess deaths.
Undetected cases, uncounted deaths. If 50% of deaths aren't counted, there should be at least 20x as many cases to get down to 0.7% IFR. Drawing any conclusions from anti body tests is pretty difficult with the variation in age demographics, how many nursing homes are hit and how well testing was done so far. The under reported number for one country could be completely different for the next." - SvennoJ

Valid point, and this goes for the IFR too.
Hes just takeing the deaths are face value, ignoreing that most places its heavily under counted.

I'd say John Campbell is a optimist.... but even if deaths are higher than reported numbers.
We atleast know that IFR cannot be any lower, than 0.7%.