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SvennoJ on 21 May 2020
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JRPGfan said:

I think scientists have a pretty good idea now.

If you look at CFR, it varies from country to country (right now in the USA its at 20%, other places its lower).
However due to antibody tests, you can kinda get a idea of how many are actually infected, and compaire that to the deaths to get a idea of IFR (deaths per infected).

IFR is looking like its slightly above 0,7% (currently).
Various countries with antibody tests have come out with IFR numbers of so.

So we can know a possible "worst" case situation now.
We can know a "what if we did nothing and it just spread until ~70% for herd immunity.
(and our health care system didnt collapse)

Brazil is about a week or two away from hospital collapse (they say so themselves, atleast).
If that happends, its IFR will go from those ~0.7% and upto potentially 5% (john campbell estimate).
So its one too keep your eyes on, if their deaths start Sky rocketing up in a week or two, we'll start to get a picture of what happends if you went for the economy instead of saveing lives.

Where is that 0.7% coming from?

That would put the total cases at about 47 million (329.3K / 0.007), 20 days ago. May 1st had 3.4M total reported cases (3.398M)
Thus the estimate is that cases are 14x under reported on average.

CFR for the USA is 8.4% atm (Reported deaths today / reported cases May 1st)


Anyway damned if you do, doomed if you don't. That kinda sums up the situation.



If only we had spend more time and money on preparing for and preventing viral outbreaks instead of focusing on terrorism, which is by far the smallest cause of death. Of course terrorism hurts the economy, so that's why it gets all the attention.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/03/us/terrorism-gun-violence/index.html

For every one American killed by an act of terror in the United States or abroad in 2014, more than 1,049 died because of guns.
Using numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we found that from 2001 to 2014, 440,095 people died by firearms on US soil. (2014 is the most recent year for which the CDC has data for deaths by firearms.) This data covered all manners of death, including homicide, accident and suicide.
According to the US State Department, the number of US citizens killed overseas as a result of incidents of terrorism from 2001 to 2014 was 369. n addition, we compiled all terrorism incidents inside the United States and found that between 2001 and 2014, there were 3,043 people killed in domestic acts of terrorism.* This brings the total to 3,412.

That includes 9/11. Spending the money on better flu prevention would have helped for covid19 as well. Especially since covid19 managed to spread undetected so long disguised as just a bad flu. Had airports had better disease detection instead of those useless body scanners for weapons, a lot more lives could have been saved.



Back to Brazil, 18894 deaths so far, May 1st they had reported 92,109 cases, CFR of 20.5%. Definitely way under reported, but by how much exactly.

Calculating CFR based on reported deaths today / reported cases May 1st
(avg 18.5 days from onset to death, avg incubation time of 5.5 days, thus still a bit conservative looking 20 days back)
The number is the current rank based on total cases.

3. Brazil 20.5%
5. UK 20.1%
17. Belgium 18.7%
24. Sweden 18.0%
7. France 16.8%
6. Italy 15.6%
55. Australia 14.8%
20. Netherlands 14.5%
4. Spain 11.5%
14. Canada 11.0%
11. India 9.2%
1. USA 8.4%
10. Iran 7.6%
12. Peru 7.5%
13. China 5.6%
19. Pakistan 5.6%
39. Japan 5.4%
8. Germany 5.0%
9. Turkey 3.4%
16. Mexico 3.2%
18. Chile 3.2%
2. Russia 2.7%
15. Saudi Arabia 1.5%

World CFR atm is 9.7%


It's all over the place, and that while a lot of deaths are still uncounted based on excess deaths.
Undetected cases, uncounted deaths. If 50% of deaths aren't counted, there should be at least 20x as many cases to get down to 0.7% IFR. Drawing any conclusions from anti body tests is pretty difficult with the variation in age demographics, how many nursing homes are hit and how well testing was done so far. The under reported number for one country could be completely different for the next.





Last edited by SvennoJ - on 21 May 2020