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Forums - General Discussion - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

JRPGfan on 30 March 2020
Pemalite said:
Things are looking good in South Australia. Second consecutive day of lower confirmed cases.

In general Australia got off very lightly... outbreak never got too bad there, before you guys took action.
Such a big country and only 18 related deaths so far.


In denmark, our scientists are optimistic too.
They say that the doubleing rate, is down alot.
So a italy like situation shouldn't play out here.

2 main contributeing factors are, how our goverenment handled people that came back from travel abroad (and were quarantined).
Another is the people, changed paterns/behavor (social distanceing, masks, gloves, disinfecting, ect ect)
They claim its showing a meassurable differnce.

Also of note:
Other illnesses (not covid19) are drastically down too for this periode of the year (common flu, RS-virus in children).

I also read a article about how air polution is down, even here in denmark (~42% in bigger cities).

So theres good news amoung all this too :)
(cleaner air, less of other illnesses too)



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S.Peelman on 30 March 2020
JRPGfan said:

(..)
They claim its showing a meassurable differnce.

Also of note:
Other illnesses (not covid19) are drastically down too for this periode of the year (common flu, RS-virus in children).

I also read a article about how air polution is down, even here in denmark (~42% in bigger cities).

So theres good news amoung all this too :)
(cleaner air, less of other illnesses too)

In the Netherlands the Royal Meteorological Institute has published this picture where they've measured Nitrogen dioxide levels in the atmosphere and compared it to last year when there were similar weather conditions and temperature to now;

Pretty huge difference a week of decreased traffic and industry makes. I could swear the air seems clearer as well when I'm outside.



Eagle367 on 30 March 2020
Teeqoz said:
last92 said:

The problem I have with this argument is that it makes it look like the death of potentially millions of people has no economic impact at all.

Of course that's not what you're saying, but at the end of the day who knows what would happen if this virus is left totally unrestrained? What will happen when hospitals run out of space? What if it can potentially kill 10% of the population? I mean, we already know that it will infect pretty much anybody who come in contact with it, so even if we want to be 100% cynical bastards and say that human lives have value only as long as they can be measured in monetary terms...how much damage would 30mln deaths do to the american economy? I don't know about you, but I think insurance companies are shitting their pants right now.

Okay, first of all, this pandemic doesn't have a 10% fatality rate. From the countries that have done widespread testing, even the hospitalization rate doesn't reach 10%.

Second, at the risk of being misconstrued, the economic impact from the lives lost depend on the age distribution. It's worse for the economy to lose a 25 year old than an 85 year old. The average age of those that have died in Italy is about 80 years old. It would be a rather different picture of it killed loads of people between 20 and 40 years old.

Third, it's not an either/or thing. We don't have to choose between completely shutting down non-essential services and letting the virus spread completely unabated. That is what flattening the curve is all about.

I'm not saying it doesn't matter because it mostly kills the elderly. My grandmother is over 80 and have several of the worst comorbidities with Covid19. She would very likely succumb if she were to be infected, but luckily she is taking it very seriously, and has self isolated in her apartment. I won't be seeing her in person until this is over, and I'm very grateful for the opportunities modern technology has given to allow the family to stay in touch with her. I'm just saying that we can't lose all perspective and we still need a degree of pragmatism. Targeted measures for the people in high risk groups might be almost as effective while doing a lot less economic damage. 

Sorry but that's wrong. Hospitalization rates can reach as high as 20% and when the healthcare systems completely collapse, the death rate can be as high as 15%. Italy has a death rate of around 10%. If you leave the virus as is, the death rate is much higher than what we are seeing anywhere



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Bofferbrauer2 on 30 March 2020
S.Peelman said:
JRPGfan said:

(..)
They claim its showing a meassurable differnce.

Also of note:
Other illnesses (not covid19) are drastically down too for this periode of the year (common flu, RS-virus in children).

I also read a article about how air polution is down, even here in denmark (~42% in bigger cities).

So theres good news amoung all this too :)
(cleaner air, less of other illnesses too)

In the Netherlands the Royal Meteorological Institute has published this picture where they've measured Nitrogen dioxide levels in the atmosphere and compared it to last year when there were similar weather conditions and temperature to now;

Pretty huge difference a week of decreased traffic and industry makes. I could swear the air seems clearer as well when I'm outside.

I was living on Metro Manila in 2018, and due to smog the Sierra Madre mountains where pretty much invisible outside of the early morning. Now you get a clear view on them when I see pictures friends made there.



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Teeqoz on 30 March 2020
Eagle367 said:
Teeqoz said:

Okay, first of all, this pandemic doesn't have a 10% fatality rate. From the countries that have done widespread testing, even the hospitalization rate doesn't reach 10%.

Second, at the risk of being misconstrued, the economic impact from the lives lost depend on the age distribution. It's worse for the economy to lose a 25 year old than an 85 year old. The average age of those that have died in Italy is about 80 years old. It would be a rather different picture of it killed loads of people between 20 and 40 years old.

Third, it's not an either/or thing. We don't have to choose between completely shutting down non-essential services and letting the virus spread completely unabated. That is what flattening the curve is all about.

I'm not saying it doesn't matter because it mostly kills the elderly. My grandmother is over 80 and have several of the worst comorbidities with Covid19. She would very likely succumb if she were to be infected, but luckily she is taking it very seriously, and has self isolated in her apartment. I won't be seeing her in person until this is over, and I'm very grateful for the opportunities modern technology has given to allow the family to stay in touch with her. I'm just saying that we can't lose all perspective and we still need a degree of pragmatism. Targeted measures for the people in high risk groups might be almost as effective while doing a lot less economic damage. 

Sorry but that's wrong. Hospitalization rates can reach as high as 20% and when the healthcare systems completely collapse, the death rate can be as high as 15%. Italy has a death rate of around 10%. If you leave the virus as is, the death rate is much higher than what we are seeing anywhere

No, sorry but you're wrong.

Italy has so many undiagnosed cases that it's numbers are useless for any statistical purpose. Countries that have done more testing, like South Korea, Germany and Norway have much lower hospitalization rates (lower than 10%), and even of the cases that are hospitalized, many would survive without hospital care, but are kept under observation in case their condition worsens.



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SvennoJ on 30 March 2020
John2290 said:
@Svennohj @Ka-pi96, I'll reply when my hands are free.

@OP, Just wanted to express how utterly fucked Idia and South Africa are. There is going to me twns of millions dead there and other third world countries, They are getting the worst case scenario up front and with no ability to suppress. It's terrifying to watch.

The spread will be slower there and less lethal. More remote areas, less travel in between, much lower average age. But indeed also much less access to healthcare. Compared to other outbreaks they're dealing with regularly over there, this one is pretty benign. The average age in Inda is about 28.1, Italy 45.5. South Africa it's 27.1. However families live more tight nit together so anyone that did manage to get old is at risk...

(Of course even though it's almost 4x less lethal in a do nothing scenario compared to NA, the absolute numbers will still be higher :/)

Good news, Italy is posting lower numbers again and recoveries are going up. Now it's waiting for the active case peak to arrive.



vivster on 30 March 2020

The total cases and deaths will be lower for the second consecutive day. Looks like the pandemic is over, we can go outside now.



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Mummelmann on 30 March 2020
vivster said:
The total cases and deaths will be lower for the second consecutive day. Looks like the pandemic is over, we can go outside now.

Here in Sweden, according to their leading experts, the worst has been over about three times already. Highly impressive.



vivster on 30 March 2020
Mummelmann said:
vivster said:
The total cases and deaths will be lower for the second consecutive day. Looks like the pandemic is over, we can go outside now.

Here in Sweden, according to their leading experts, the worst has been over about three times already. Highly impressive.

That's what being progressive is all about.



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vivster on 30 March 2020
RolStoppable said:

Today's cumulative stats for Austria:

Infected: 9,377
Tests: 49,455
Hospitalized: 999
Intensity care: 193
Dead: 108
Recovered: 636
New unemployment since start of lockdown: 179,000

Tyrol (where I live) is extending its lead in confirmed cases with now 2,205 cases. Quite a big share of Austria's total considering Tyrol's population makes up for about 10% of Austria as a whole. Another 6 died today, bringing the total to 19 in Tyrol. Today's victims were aged between 81 and 90.

I can't think of any other relevant numbers to post.

Considering you posted Austria's numbers you have yet to provide any relevant numbers.



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