When Daily Recovery # > Daily new Cases (when its no longer in growth).

Thats when you should celebrate.

That said, its very promising that new daily cases have been so much lower last 2days in germany, hopefully trend continues.
And germany beats this thing quickly. Also impressive is how few deaths germany had, even though you have so many cases.

I wish the danish goverment gave out numbers for recovery / daily recovered, but they arnt.
We had +182 cases today.

Nevermind, Spain and France decided to die a lot today, so we're back up again.

You seem to ignore that the healthcare systems didn't get overwhelmed in any of your examples. Why give them when it's useless to the discussion? 

France should just do what they're best at and wave the white flag to this virus. Save it some time.

Maybe you misunderstood something. I am talking about hospitalization rates. Meaning the proportion of infected people that are admitted to the hospital. Healthcare systems that are not overwhelmed won't lead to lower hospitalization rates... They will lead to lower mortality rates, but I was talking about hospitalization rates, which are already lower than your exaggerated "estimate" for mortality. 

With today's numbers it's now safe to say Italy's growth peaked on March 21st. Since then they have been at an average decline of 0.98, 0.92 averaged over the past 5 days. As long as less than 5200 new cases are reported tomorrow that 0.92 decline will continue or even be improved on. Should be an easy target to beat thanks to today's low numbers.

If Italy follows the same pattern as China after reaching the growth summit, the active cases (recoveries > new cases) should start to decline on April 4th (peak on April 3rd). 5 more days of active cases growth slowing down until it reverses. The bad news is that China's reported deaths didn't really start to decline until 20 days after reaching the growth peak, which would be April 10th.

In China it took 12 days to reach the growth peak after total lockdown.
In Italy it was also 12 days since March 9th when national quarantine was imposed.

The end is in sight (for Italy) However China didn't start to lift lock down restrictions until 2 months after putting on the emergency brakes.

This is why I told my wife that she shouldn't hope for the lockdown to be over at the end of April. Maybe June, but not earlier if they don't want to risk to have to start over again.

Recovery can take a long time, getting retested to be declared recovered can take much longer.

Until today only 8 people 'recovered' in Ontario out of 1355 cases. Today the province cleared their backlog of some 7200 tests, which resulted into the biggest gain in positive cases (+351 today to 1706) but also cleared 423 people, to 431 recovered. Perhaps now they have testing up to speed and hopefully no more bottlenecks, we'll get some more reliable numbers here.

The gain in recoveries likely has more to do with a change in the way to recoveries are counted:

Previously, patients’ cases were not considered to be resolved until they had tested negative for the virus two times 24 hours apart. Now, a case is considered to be resolved if they are reported as recovered in the integrated Public Health Information System and their case is not currently listed as hospitalized in the system, or they are 14 days past symptom onset or 14 days past the episode date if the case is closed.

Statistics for Ontario:

19 and under 42 2.5%
20-64 1,319 77.3%
65 and over 343 20.1%
Total Tested 48,461
Currently Under Investigation 5,651

Yaffe added that in Ontario 100 COVID-19 patients are in an intensive care unit, and 61 of those patients are on ventilators.

Ontario has a population of 14.6 million btw, very low amount of testing still.



Ontario's stance on face masks:

Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. David Williams addressed the issue at Monday’s news conference saying that he would prefer people who are not healthcare providers or part of an essential service to “kept two metres” a part instead.

“I’ve seen some people with masks who tend to be able to think that they can ignore that,” Williams said, adding that the face coverings don’t offer the benefit of social distancing.

“I would still prefer the social distancing and physical distancing as compared to a number of people wearing masks and standing in clumps and large groups together. I can’t support that at all.”

Dr. Yaffe agreed and said that masks can also offer a “false sense of security” as users tend to touch their faces more often to adjust the fit.

Yaffe added that if you are symptomatic, and checking into an assessment centre or hospital, you should wear a mask to prevent transmission of your symptoms to others.

Italy is only testing the very sick and at risk health professionals. The death rate is above 5% for all provinces, varying only according to how old the outbreak is, no matter if they have only 100 or 50,000 cases like Lombardy. You can check it for yourself, if you want.

Besides, the chances of dying, averaged for all ages, if you need an ICU, is already 50%, so even if ventilators and ICU beds completely vanished from the face of the Earth, the death rate would no more than double (some people would survive regardless, specially the young. Believe it or not, waiting lines for ICU beds, in the developing world, are a thing in hospitals. It isn't an instant death sentence to be deprived of one).

These are the Imperial College's most recent estimates (up to March 28) for the true number of infected, out of the total population, across 11 countries in Europe, and the 95% confidence interval within the square brackets:

Austria 1.1% [0.36%-3.1%]

Belgium 3.7% [1.3%-9.7%]

Denmark 1.1% [0.40%-3.1%]

France 3.0% [1.1%-7.4%]

Germany 0.72% [0.28%-1.8%]

Italy 9.8% [3.2%-26%]

Norway 0.41% [0.09%-1.2%]

Spain 15% [3.7%-41%]

Sweden 3.1% [0.85%-8.4%]

Switzerland 3.2% [1.3%-7.6%]

United Kingdom 2.7% [1.2%-5.4%]

Italy and Spain were already literally a week or two away from a 60 - 70% infection rate if the lockdown hadn't been instated (counting all home infections etc. that happened since then). No wonder things looked that bad in certain places.