Coronavirus (COVID-19) Discussion Thread

[Bofferbrauer2]

SvennoJ said:
With today's numbers it's now safe to say Italy's growth peaked on March 21st. Since then they have been at an average decline of 0.98, 0.92 averaged over the past 5 days. As long as less than 5200 new cases are reported tomorrow that 0.92 decline will continue or even be improved on. Should be an easy target to beat thanks to today's low numbers.

If Italy follows the same pattern as China after reaching the growth summit, the active cases (recoveries > new cases) should start to decline on April 4th (peak on April 3rd). 5 more days of active cases growth slowing down until it reverses. The bad news is that China's reported deaths didn't really start to decline until 20 days after reaching the growth peak, which would be April 10th.

In China it took 12 days to reach the growth peak after total lockdown.
In Italy it was also 12 days since March 9th when national quarantine was imposed.

The end is in sight (for Italy) However China didn't start to lift lock down restrictions until 2 months after putting on the emergency brakes.

This is why I told my wife that she shouldn't hope for the lockdown to be over at the end of April. Maybe June, but not earlier if they don't want to risk to have to start over again.