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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will the switch outsell the ps4?

 

When will the switch outsell the ps4?

Second half of 2022 33 11.54%
 
First half of 2023 24 8.39%
 
Second half of 2023 35 12.24%
 
First half of 2024 15 5.24%
 
Second half of 2024 16 5.59%
 
First half of 2025 7 2.45%
 
Second half of 2025 5 1.75%
 
Later than above 2 0.70%
 
Never 149 52.10%
 
Total:286
Metallox on 13 January 2021

Wow, impressive how much opinion has drifted.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

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The_Liquid_Laser on 13 January 2021
Bofferbrauer2 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

You could still collect all their posts into one post and turn it into a wall of shame

I agree with this.  If TruckOSaurus can't rub it in their faces, then at least we can all appreciate their ridiculousness together.

Stuart23 said:

The first pages of this thread gives me a strong "Pre-launch Switch prediction thread" feeling. What makes it hilarious is that this thread was made in 2020.

Did people really thought the Switch hardware would start decreasing the year we would get the first mainline Animal Crossing in freaking 7 years?

To be fair, I don't think anyone though Animal Crossing would be THIS BIG of a release.  I've been predicting that Switch would be the #1 selling system of all time for years now, but I never remotely imagined Animal Crossing would be on track to be Switch's top selling game.  For all we know AC has already outsold Mario Kart.  (We'll have to wait for Nintendo's Q3 report to find out.) 

Nintendo even releases Mario Kart bundles sometimes.  Animal Crossing doesn't care.  Animal Crossing doesn't give a shit.  Animal Crossing is the honey badger of video game sales.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

javi741 on 14 January 2021

It's so funny to read the first few posts of this thread. People were still debating whether or not the Switch would pass 100 Million and surpass the Wii lmao. And so many people with way too much confidence saying that the Switch has no chance of outselling PS4. How naive we were.



javi741 on 14 January 2021
KBG29 said:

Voted Never.

I think the Switch will reach its market saturation point and slow down rapidly like the every other Nintendo device,except the DS has done.

If I had to make a preditction right now, I would say the Switch will end up somewhere between the 3DS and Wii when it is all said and done. I don't think it will be able to reach the 100M mark.

I believe that 2020 will be the last massive year for Switch, with another decent year in 2021, but after that, the market will be very competitive. With 5G rolling out, and the maturation of PS Now, Stadia, xCloud, and other online streaming services, the ability to access your AAA games library anywhere will be quite common. It will be time for Nintendo to innovate a new exciting concept.

Bruh.



TruckOSaurus on 19 January 2021
Bofferbrauer2 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm sad that the people who argued with me about the PS4 selling 150m have stopped posting so I can't rub it in their faces.

You could still collect all their posts into one post and turn it into a wall of shame

I've done a bit a research and here it is, bolded the juicy parts:

victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

How will the PS4 reach 150 million consoles sold exactly? It was about 41 million consoles away at the end of 2019 and last year it sold 14.7m. The January 2020 numbers are at 20% below 2019 numbers and the release of the PS5 will definitely affect its end of year numbers.

Shipped at the end of 2019: 108.9m
Shipped at the end of 2020: 120m (about 11m, that would be only a 25% drop, it could be sharper the PS3 dropped 31% in the year PS4 was released)
Shipped at the end of 2021: 125.5m(about 5.5m, that would be a 50% drop,for reference the PS3 dropped 59% the year following the PS4's release)

The way I see it, the road to 130m is very doable but 150m is out of the question.

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

victor83fernandes said:
LGBTDBZBBQ said:

Last Quarter shipment number.
Switch Hybrid - 7.58M
Switch Lite - 3.24M

Japan(Biggest portable market) January 2020 sales data
Switch Hybrid - 416k
Switch Lite - 225K


I think it's time for you to use facts instead of imaginary thoughts. Nintendo is currently facing a stock problem for Hybrid Switch in Japan while Switch Lite is readily available. 

That strengthens my point, switch sold a lot because of the new smaller model, so it had a jump in sales, wont happen this year.

Those are not facts at all, no one has facts for the next years sales, no one can predict the future, if I could I would invest in shares.

Just like the Wii and 3ds which were selling a lot the first few years and then had a massive drop. Playstations tend to sell well for a much longer period of time than Nintendo consoles. None of this is imaginary, it happens with Nintendo every time.

victor83fernandes said:
TruckOSaurus said:

I'm willing to bet you a year of avatar control that the PS4 will never reach 150 million units sold. The PS4 is on a downward curve and it's not going to have the kind of post successor sales that the PS2 had.

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?

JapaneseGamesLover said:
Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.


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curl-6 on 19 January 2021
TruckOSaurus said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

You could still collect all their posts into one post and turn it into a wall of shame

I've done a bit a research and here it is, bolded the juicy parts:

victor83fernandes said:

I can bet you on this if you want, it will reach 150 million easily just like the ps2 reached 155million, sales aligned the ps4 is outselling the ps2 WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL PRICE DROP.

Sony just needs to drop the price to 150dollars and the thing will easily sell to people who cant afford new consoles, or people who already have a ps4 but gets defective.

And are we forgetting the biggest ps4 game ever is still to be released this year? Game of year 2020 will most likely be Last of us 2, a ps4 exclusive, if that together with a permanent price drop, doesn't sell consoles I don't know what will.

Also, you counted 2021? do you even realize that's only 1 year after ps5 launches? Go check how many years the ps1 and ps2 sold after the new consoles came.

One more thing, black Friday sales will be only current gen consoles, not the new ones which most likely will be out of stock. A cheap bundle with Last of us 2 will sell a lot, specially to PC people who do not want to buy a 450dollars console + 70 dollars game = 520 dollars while they could buy it for 180 dollars just for that game.

victor83fernandes said:

That strengthens my point, switch sold a lot because of the new smaller model, so it had a jump in sales, wont happen this year.

Those are not facts at all, no one has facts for the next years sales, no one can predict the future, if I could I would invest in shares.

Just like the Wii and 3ds which were selling a lot the first few years and then had a massive drop. Playstations tend to sell well for a much longer period of time than Nintendo consoles. None of this is imaginary, it happens with Nintendo every time.
victor83fernandes said:

What can I do with an Avatar? Im 36 yo, I don't play with avatars or themes, or pokemons or selfies all these modern nonsense.

The ps4 is above the ps2 in sales, years aligned, so I don't know why it would not hit 150 million. The market of people who cant afford more than 150dollars for a console and 5-10 dollars per game is huge, specially PC people who usually pirate but would not mind a cheap way of playing all the ps4 exclusives.

The ps4 is also a cheap bluray player, just like the ps2 was a cheap DVD player, the ps4 is already at over 107 million, so it only needs to sell less than 43 million in the next 10 years, very possible. Just people buying to replace their broken consoles is already half that number for next 10 years. Or do you think that the current 107 million consoles, none will break?
JapaneseGamesLover said:
Simply never, Switch is lagging in Europe just 3 years after its launch. So, all things considered Switch is declining like 3DS and will fall off before the 100m target. I am not sure if it will outsell even the Wii. At least Switch had a good 3 years run.

Oh dear. I have a feeling that if ol' victor were still around (whatever happened to him?) there'd be so much salt that should the forum last a hundred years, not even weeds would grow here.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 20 January 2021

PDiddy on 19 January 2021

That cheap bluray argument just seems ludicrous considering the fact that bluray is nowhere near as popular as DVD was, not to mention the fact that digital video is growing. And that whole "people will buy more consoles because theirs broke" is odd; that would be an astounding failure rate. The 3DS argument seems pretty standard except for the fact that Switch was clearly peaking later than 3DS.



Alex_The_Hedgehog on 19 January 2021

People that still thinks the Switch will never outsell the PS4 is now 54.14%.

Dropping really fast.



My Brazilian blog about Super Smash Bros.

TruckOSaurus on 19 January 2021
PDiddy said:

That cheap bluray argument just seems ludicrous considering the fact that bluray is nowhere near as popular as DVD was, not to mention the fact that digital video is growing. And that whole "people will buy more consoles because theirs broke" is odd; that would be an astounding failure rate. The 3DS argument seems pretty standard except for the fact that Switch was clearly peaking later than 3DS.

There's also the fact that a PS4 is NOT a cheap Blu-Ray player, you can buy one for under $100 if you want a cheap one.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 19 January 2021

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zorg1000 on 20 January 2021
zorg1000 said:

I dont think it will

PS4-~125m
NSW-~115m

I change my mind

PS4~120 million

NSW-~130 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.