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Forums - Sales Discussion - When will Switch pass Wii?

 

When will Switch pass Wii?

Holiday 2021 31 19.38%
 
Early 2022 12 7.50%
 
Mid 2022 14 8.75%
 
Holiday 2022 34 21.25%
 
Early 2023 15 9.38%
 
Mid 2023 10 6.25%
 
Holiday 2023 15 9.38%
 
2024 or later 6 3.75%
 
Never 23 14.38%
 
Total:160
Jumpin on 12 January 2020

I don't know.
I want to see what their hardware plan is, and I expect we'll hear something about it in late April or the month of May.

I expect sooner if Nintendo pumps out a Switch generation 2 or more hardware revisions. Later or never if they go back and do the old and tired traditional generation cycle with a ramping down and extinction of Switch support in 2 to 3 years to make way for an entirely new platform.



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Barkley on 12 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

My guess is early 2022. It should be just a little under the wii by the end of 2021.

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.



Bofferbrauer2 on 12 January 2020
Barkley said:
curl-6 said:

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

If the Switch would somehow pull that off, then PS2 and DS would get some serious competition on the top, that's for sure!

But I agree, 27M is just too high. I could see 2021 being around 2019 numbers, maybe beating them by a couple 100k, but not by several millions or anything like that.

For the record, I expect 22-23M this year, so a 10-15% drop the year after could still mean 2021 wins over 2019, if just by a hair. But I'm expecting more like 18-19M for 2021 - which would still add up to over 40M over the course of those 2 years.



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curl-6 on 12 January 2020
Barkley said:
curl-6 said:

So over 50 million in the next two years? That seems a bit far fetched.

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

Yeah 27m this year is not happening. I'll go with 21m myself, and that's me being uncharacteristically optimistic as we know nothing about this year's lineup beyond Animal Crossing.



Barkley on 13 January 2020
curl-6 said:
Barkley said:

He's said before he expected sales this year to be around 27m and sales in 2021 to be around 22m. Unrealistic expectations. 2021 being higher than 2019 sounds like a pipe dream.

Yeah 27m this year is not happening. I'll go with 21m myself, and that's me being uncharacteristically optimistic as we know nothing about this year's lineup beyond Animal Crossing.

Yeah I have similar expectations for this year, 21.5m is what I guessed in the 2020 thread.



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curl-6 on 13 January 2020

For me, the bigger question is when, or if, Switch will surpass Wii as a platform. And that will depend largely on what games Switch gets from here on out and how good they are.



NobleTeam360 on 13 January 2020

I'll go early 2023.



curl-6 on 17 January 2020

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.



curl-6 on 17 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

The main thing Switch needs to do to beat Wii is get decent support for more than 4 years.

Nintendo dropped Wii like a rock after 2010 to shift their teams to making 3DS and Wii U games, and fucked up on properly localizing and advertising games like Xenoblade, The Last Story, Pandora's Tower, and Fatal Frame 2 Remake, which could have softened the crash.

3 more years.

3 more years what? Til Switch passes Wii?



curl-6 on 17 January 2020
SpokenTruth said:
curl-6 said:

3 more years what? Til Switch passes Wii?

Yes.  Took less than 3 to get half way there. 

I can see that happening; 20m this year, 18m in 2021, 14m in 2022, for a total of 102m by 2023.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 17 January 2020