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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Nintendo's success with the Switch both a blessing and a curse?

Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

Holidays 2022 is not early, it's basically 6 years after the switch. It's also only 2 years after the ps5 and xsx, making it a good strategic time for a switch 2. Just think about it: ps4 was a huge success out of the gate and the switch came 3 years after it. At that point there was just no stopping it. If rumours about their specs and price are true, chances are that the ps5 and xsx will have way slower starts compared to the ps4. A switch successor coming 2 years after those could easily steal their momentum and dominate the 10th gen.

A holiday 2023 release would only make some sense if switch existed in a vacuum but that's not the case. The circunstances make 2022 just too good to pass. Regarding power, I'm pretty sure the gap between a 2022 $299 switch successor and the ps5/xsx will already be smaller than the gap between switch and ps4/xb1. Waiting another year would make little difference.

Switch doesn't directly compete with Playstation/Xbox, the last two and half years clearly show that. Nintendo doesn't have to worry about PS5/XSX anymore than bicycle sellers need to worry about sports car sellers. There's no need to try to "steal their momentum", Switch 2 should launch when Switch 1 has reached its full potential and the end of its natural life, and 2022 is too early to cut short one of the fastest selling systems in history.

The switch competes directly with the ps4/xb1 and will compete with ps5/xsx for a short while. The switch doesn't have to worry about the new systems but it's successor does. Again, 6 years isn't cutting short in any way shape or form. 

Software support for the switch? Multiplats will mostly end alongside 2022. Only nintendo and small/mid japanese developers will be releasing low/mid budget new games/ports/remakes/remasters for it. But that late life software support will be the same regardless of when the switch 2 comes out.

Hardware sales? At the end of 2022, switch will have sold roughly 90% of it's lifetime numbers. Also, the people buying it at $149-199 (likely bundled with MK8D) won't be the same people buying a brand new $299 system with no game bundled. Once again, the successor release won't change it's late life sales.

To sum it up: The switch loses absolutely nothing wheter it's successor releases in 2022 or later but the switch 2 can lose a lot by releasing late. Of course it can still be a very sucessful system with a 2023 release but it has even more potential by coming in 2022.



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curl-6 on 21 December 2019
Nu-13 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch doesn't directly compete with Playstation/Xbox, the last two and half years clearly show that. Nintendo doesn't have to worry about PS5/XSX anymore than bicycle sellers need to worry about sports car sellers. There's no need to try to "steal their momentum", Switch 2 should launch when Switch 1 has reached its full potential and the end of its natural life, and 2022 is too early to cut short one of the fastest selling systems in history.

The switch competes directly with the ps4/xb1 and will compete with ps5/xsx for a short while. The switch doesn't have to worry about the new systems but it's successor does. Again, 6 years isn't cutting short in any way shape or form. 

Software support for the switch? Multiplats will mostly end alongside 2022. Only nintendo and small/mid japanese developers will be releasing low/mid budget new games/ports/remakes/remasters for it. But that late life software support will be the same regardless of when the switch 2 comes out.

Hardware sales? At the end of 2022, switch will have sold roughly 90% of it's lifetime numbers. Also, the people buying it at $149-199 (likely bundled with MK8D) won't be the same people buying a brand new $299 system with no game bundled. Once again, the successor release won't change it's late life sales.

To sum it up: The switch loses absolutely nothing wheter it's successor releases in 2022 or later but the switch 2 can lose a lot by releasing late. Of course it can still be a very sucessful system with a 2023 release but it has even more potential by coming in 2022.

If Switch directly competed with PS/Xbox, it's massive success would've caused sales of those systems to tank. It didn't, because they fill different niches. And Switch is getting hardly any AAA multiplats anyway and they're not what's selling it, so those stopping won't really matter.

They don't lose anything by giving it a longer lifespan.



Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

The switch competes directly with the ps4/xb1 and will compete with ps5/xsx for a short while. The switch doesn't have to worry about the new systems but it's successor does. Again, 6 years isn't cutting short in any way shape or form. 

Software support for the switch? Multiplats will mostly end alongside 2022. Only nintendo and small/mid japanese developers will be releasing low/mid budget new games/ports/remakes/remasters for it. But that late life software support will be the same regardless of when the switch 2 comes out.

Hardware sales? At the end of 2022, switch will have sold roughly 90% of it's lifetime numbers. Also, the people buying it at $149-199 (likely bundled with MK8D) won't be the same people buying a brand new $299 system with no game bundled. Once again, the successor release won't change it's late life sales.

To sum it up: The switch loses absolutely nothing wheter it's successor releases in 2022 or later but the switch 2 can lose a lot by releasing late. Of course it can still be a very sucessful system with a 2023 release but it has even more potential by coming in 2022.

If Switch directly competed with PS/Xbox, it's massive success would've caused sales of those systems to tank. It didn't, because they fill different niches. And Switch is getting hardly any AAA multiplats anyway and they're not what's selling it, so those stopping won't really matter.

They don't lose anything by giving it a longer lifespan.

Did you even read my post? Of course they are competing but being of different generations limits how many sales can be stolen by either side. Who is talking about AAA multis selling the switch? I'm saying they will be gone after 2022 and the late life support for switch will be the same wheter a successor is out in 2022 or later. They (nintendo) definitely lose by missing the best timing for their new system.

But whatever suits you best. We'll just have to wait and see.



Pemalite on 21 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
Pemalite said:

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.

What would a 2013 Switch be in terms of power, something between Vita & 360?

Probably an accurate assumption!



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

goopy20 on 22 December 2019
zorg1000 said:
goopy20 said:

Well the ps4 was at almost 54m at the end of 2017.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/olliebarder/2017/01/05/the-ps4-has-now-sold-53-4-million-units-worldwide-with-6-2-million-sales-over-the-2016-holidays/#645d238a7b41

If the Switch keeps selling as is, then obviously there is no problem at all for Nintendo. But keep in mind that while the Switch did sell great, it's still only slightly above the Xone sales and who knows how sales will hold up when the next gen starts. 

Why do we need to keep that in mind?

I mean that the Switch is no way near as successful as people make it out to be if sales drop next near when next gen kick off. And if would be virtually impossible for Nintendo to beat "regular" consoles like the Wii or ps4 if they are forced to start halfway through the race. 



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Wman1996 on 22 December 2019
curl-6 said:

2022 is too early for Switch 2 IMO. No need to cut off a system that it selling on par with PS4 after just 5 years.

Give it 6 and come out with a successor in 2023, using the extra year to get better specs for $300.

I think March 2023 is the best release date. 2022 would only make sense if it's the holiday season. The Switch successor will almost surely be a hybrid. A hybrid doesn't need to release during the holiday season like home consoles tend to. 

If we do get a Switch Pro, it really should release Holiday 2020. Anything past Summer 2021 is too late.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

zorg1000 on 22 December 2019
goopy20 said:
zorg1000 said:

Why do we need to keep that in mind?

I mean that the Switch is no way near as successful as people make it out to be if sales drop next near when next gen kick off. And if would be virtually impossible for Nintendo to beat "regular" consoles like the Wii or ps4 if they are forced to start halfway through the race. 

It passed Xbox One in like 40% the time it took XBO to get where it's at, so no "it's only slightly above XBO sales" is not a relevant argument.

"Forced to start halfway through the race"........you mean exactly like Switch did?

PS4/XBO-Nov 2013

NSW-March 2017

PS5/XSX-Nov 2020

It released about as close to halfway as it gets so why is that all of a sudden going to put Switch 2 at a disadvantage?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

LGBTDBZBBQ on 22 December 2019
goopy20 said:
zorg1000 said:

Why do we need to keep that in mind?

I mean that the Switch is no way near as successful as people make it out to be if sales drop next near when next gen kick off. And if would be virtually impossible for Nintendo to beat "regular" consoles like the Wii or ps4 if they are forced to start halfway through the race. 

Switch is outpacing PS4 launch alligned, of course it's a successful. 

PS5 isn't going to cut Switch's leg right off the bat with high price point. XSX and PS5 are competing against Switch this time and not WiiU.



Mr Puggsly on 22 December 2019
Pemalite said:
Mr Puggsly said:

I am not sure Switch could have existed in 2013 as it does. If so it would have been less powerful or more expensive. At that point Wii U was also just a year old, which inspired Switch.

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.

Well considering how powerful the Vita was in 2011, maybe it would have been possible to make a $299 portable gaming console at par with 7th gen consoles or Wii U. Creating something exactly as capable Switch seems unlikely for price reasons.

However, in 2013 3DS was doing great and maybe Nintendo still had hope for Wii U. If Nintendo made the Switch in 2013 then they would have already moved away from 3DS and would not have tried to capitalize on Wii's success. I mean you don't leave the home console market after selling 100 million consoles.

I feel Switch launched when the tech was right and even though Wii U failed it was inspiration. Nintendo also seems to be making a fortune porting Wii U games or making sequels for Switch.



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Nu-13 on 22 December 2019
Mr Puggsly said:
Pemalite said:

It would have been impossible. 28nm+Tegra 4 was what was "leading edge" on the market at the time.

Unless of course Nintendo went the custom route and built a mobile chip geared towards gaming rather than take an off-the-shelf SoC.

Well considering how powerful the Vita was in 2011, maybe it would have been possible to make a $299 portable gaming console at par with 7th gen consoles or Wii U. Creating something exactly as capable Switch seems unlikely for price reasons.

However, in 2013 3DS was doing great and maybe Nintendo still had hope for Wii U. If Nintendo made the Switch in 2013 then they would have already moved away from 3DS and would not have tried to capitalize on Wii's success. I mean you don't leave the home console market after selling 100 million consoles.

I feel Switch launched when the tech was right and even though Wii U failed it was inspiration. Nintendo also seems to be making a fortune porting Wii U games or making sequels for Switch.

7th gen consoles weren't on par with the wii u. A hypothetical 2013 switch could maybe match an x360 in terms of power but that's it. Would need a 2015 release to match the wii u at $299.