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Nu-13 on 21 December 2019
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curl-6 said:
Nu-13 said:

Holidays 2022 is not early, it's basically 6 years after the switch. It's also only 2 years after the ps5 and xsx, making it a good strategic time for a switch 2. Just think about it: ps4 was a huge success out of the gate and the switch came 3 years after it. At that point there was just no stopping it. If rumours about their specs and price are true, chances are that the ps5 and xsx will have way slower starts compared to the ps4. A switch successor coming 2 years after those could easily steal their momentum and dominate the 10th gen.

A holiday 2023 release would only make some sense if switch existed in a vacuum but that's not the case. The circunstances make 2022 just too good to pass. Regarding power, I'm pretty sure the gap between a 2022 $299 switch successor and the ps5/xsx will already be smaller than the gap between switch and ps4/xb1. Waiting another year would make little difference.

Switch doesn't directly compete with Playstation/Xbox, the last two and half years clearly show that. Nintendo doesn't have to worry about PS5/XSX anymore than bicycle sellers need to worry about sports car sellers. There's no need to try to "steal their momentum", Switch 2 should launch when Switch 1 has reached its full potential and the end of its natural life, and 2022 is too early to cut short one of the fastest selling systems in history.

The switch competes directly with the ps4/xb1 and will compete with ps5/xsx for a short while. The switch doesn't have to worry about the new systems but it's successor does. Again, 6 years isn't cutting short in any way shape or form. 

Software support for the switch? Multiplats will mostly end alongside 2022. Only nintendo and small/mid japanese developers will be releasing low/mid budget new games/ports/remakes/remasters for it. But that late life software support will be the same regardless of when the switch 2 comes out.

Hardware sales? At the end of 2022, switch will have sold roughly 90% of it's lifetime numbers. Also, the people buying it at $149-199 (likely bundled with MK8D) won't be the same people buying a brand new $299 system with no game bundled. Once again, the successor release won't change it's late life sales.

To sum it up: The switch loses absolutely nothing wheter it's successor releases in 2022 or later but the switch 2 can lose a lot by releasing late. Of course it can still be a very sucessful system with a 2023 release but it has even more potential by coming in 2022.