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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Is ARMS a failure, or not?

sundin13 on 05 October 2020
Jumpin said:
Mummelmann said:
Over 2 million is a failure now? I think we're all too caught up in blockbusters and 10 million + sellers for the sake of list wars. 2 million is great, especially for a title with relatively low development cost.

Relatively speaking, 2 million for an EPD game is a failure. The reason why we’re caught up with 10 million sellers is because that’s what successful EPD games sell. You can’t divorce sales numbers from their expectations - and their expectations are based on the dev team, studio, and publisher. This is a studio that does 10 million+ games done by a team that does 20 million+ games.

I am not sure what criteria you are using as “low cost” when the cost was the time of some of Nintendo’s most commercially valuable dev resources.

EPD is a big studio which regularly works on numerous projects at the same time, and EPD actually contains 11 different production groups (that we are aware of). While some of their projects are big projects and big sellers like Animal Crossing and Mario, they have also made numerous smaller projects such as Tank Troopers, Miitopia, Jump Rope Challenge and Sushi Striker. You can't really just say "It was EPD" and act like Nintendo expected 10million sales...

Last edited by sundin13 - on 05 October 2020

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sundin13 on 05 October 2020
mZuzek said:
sethnintendo said:

Who the fuck cares about mortal kombat 11? Smash destroys their numbers. If there is any fighting game left that pulls in numbers it is smash. Which is funny because button smashers can't win in a game called Smash.

As a Smash player myself, Ultimate feels more "button mashy" than just about any other fighting game at this point.

And no, Smash isn't the only one left pulling in numbers. 20 million units sold is unprecedented for a fighting game, thus you're implying no other fighting game ever has pulled in numbers? Not Street Fighter 2, not Tekken 3, not Mortal Kombat X? Ok dude.

When someone says that Smash is the only fighting game left that can pull these numbers, I don't think SF2 (released in 1991) and Tekken 3 (released in 1998) do much to refute that point. 

That said, from what I can find SF2 sold 15million, Tekken 3 sold 8million and MKX sold 11million, making Smash Ultimate the best selling fighting game of all time with over 20million sales. 

https://www.destructoid.com/stories/in-under-a-year-super-smash-bros-ultimate-is-the-best-selling-fighting-game-of-all-time-beating-nearly-three-decades-of-street-fighter-ii-history-571678.phtml

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html



Mummelmann on 05 October 2020
Jumpin said:
Mummelmann said:
Over 2 million is a failure now? I think we're all too caught up in blockbusters and 10 million + sellers for the sake of list wars. 2 million is great, especially for a title with relatively low development cost.

Relatively speaking, 2 million for an EPD game is a failure. The reason why we’re caught up with 10 million sellers is because that’s what successful EPD games sell. You can’t divorce sales numbers from their expectations - and their expectations are based on the dev team, studio, and publisher. This is a studio that does 10 million+ games done by a team that does 20 million+ games.

I am not sure what criteria you are using as “low cost” when the cost was the time of some of Nintendo’s most commercially valuable dev resources.

Who expected ARMS to sell crazy numbers? It looked like a pretty niche idea from the beginning. And like another user mentioned; the pedigree or size of a studio does in no way indicate expectations of sales, especially if the budget is small (ARMS was not an expensive production and thus not a huge investment). With titles sporting more bloated budgets, higher sales expectations should follow. It should also be noted that ARMS reviewed well below EPD's greatest games.

If massive publishers like Ubisoft, EA, or Activision/Blizzard help develop and release simpler projects with low budgets, I won't automatically assume sales close to their best-selling franchises.

Wasn't Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker also made by EPD? It sold rather poorly on the Switch and had abysmal figures on the 3DS, the Wii U sales likely constrained due to the tiny installed base. Heck, look at something like 1-2 Switch, from EPD as well, selling 2-3 million, or Tank Troopers on 3DS. The point I'm making is; is ARMS a failure given its budget and the realistic expectations one should have from a new IP with a niche concept even if a studio with pedigree made it? My answer would easily be no, 2 million + is great for what it is and likely very profitable.



Replicant on 05 October 2020
Wyrdness said:
The only fighting games that have sold more than it this gen are Tekken and Smash Ultimate so it's far from a failure.

Besides Tekken and Smash, there's actually a bunch of fighting games that have sold more as well. That still doesn't make ARMS a failure though.

Best selling fighting games in the 8th generation (excluding WWE 2K and EA Sports UFC):
1. Super Smash Bros. Ultimate: 20 million (link)
2. Mortal Kombat X: 11 million (link)
3. Mortal Kombat 11: 8 million (link)
4. Tekken 7: 6 million (link)
5. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2: 6 million (link)
6. Naruto Shippuden: Ultimate Ninja Storm 4: 5.8 million (link)
7. Dragon Ball: Xenoverse: 5 million (link)
8. Dragon Ball: FighterZ: 5 million (link)
9. Street Fighter V: 4.7 million (link)
10. ARMS: 2.1 million (link)

No new sales updates on Injustice 2 (1.5 million in 3 months).

Edit: Updated the list with just released number for Mortal Kombat 11.

Marth said:
Replicant said:

Good point. Mortal Kombat 11's first week is probably in 10th then.

You know anything about who's updating VGC's database?

That would be Machina and me

Thanks. Would you be able to use some of these sources in order to update VGC numbers?

Edit: I'll try again :)



Slownenberg on 05 October 2020

Its pretty amazing that Arms sold over 2 million. I tried the demo. It seemed to be not a terrible deep experience and not a terribly great experience. For what the game provides, I'd say 2 million is quite the oversell!



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The_Liquid_Laser on 05 October 2020
Mummelmann said:
Jumpin said:

Relatively speaking, 2 million for an EPD game is a failure. The reason why we’re caught up with 10 million sellers is because that’s what successful EPD games sell. You can’t divorce sales numbers from their expectations - and their expectations are based on the dev team, studio, and publisher. This is a studio that does 10 million+ games done by a team that does 20 million+ games.

I am not sure what criteria you are using as “low cost” when the cost was the time of some of Nintendo’s most commercially valuable dev resources.

Who expected ARMS to sell crazy numbers? It looked like a pretty niche idea from the beginning. And like another user mentioned; the pedigree or size of a studio does in no way indicate expectations of sales, especially if the budget is small (ARMS was not an expensive production and thus not a huge investment). With titles sporting more bloated budgets, higher sales expectations should follow. It should also be noted that ARMS reviewed well below EPD's greatest games.

If massive publishers like Ubisoft, EA, or Activision/Blizzard help develop and release simpler projects with low budgets, I won't automatically assume sales close to their best-selling franchises.

Wasn't Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker also made by EPD? It sold rather poorly on the Switch and had abysmal figures on the 3DS, the Wii U sales likely constrained due to the tiny installed base. Heck, look at something like 1-2 Switch, from EPD as well, selling 2-3 million, or Tank Troopers on 3DS. The point I'm making is; is ARMS a failure given its budget and the realistic expectations one should have from a new IP with a niche concept even if a studio with pedigree made it? My answer would easily be no, 2 million + is great for what it is and likely very profitable.

First Party software needs to distinguish itself from Third Party software.  The purpose of Third Party software is to turn a good profit for the publisher.  The purpose of First Party software is to sell hardware.  The best profits for a console maker comes from royalties on Third Party software.  In order to achieve this, they need to get a large console base, and that comes from compelling First Party software.

That's why ARMS really should not have a sequel.  It didn't move hardware.  The same team could have made a 2D Mario or Wii Sports Resort sequel.  Neither of these games has a huge budget and yet they both move hardware.  Or if they want a new successful IP, then they should scrap ARMS and try something completely new.  ARMS is not moving hardware and that is why it isn't worth it for them to make a sequel.



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Mummelmann on 06 October 2020
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mummelmann said:

Who expected ARMS to sell crazy numbers? It looked like a pretty niche idea from the beginning. And like another user mentioned; the pedigree or size of a studio does in no way indicate expectations of sales, especially if the budget is small (ARMS was not an expensive production and thus not a huge investment). With titles sporting more bloated budgets, higher sales expectations should follow. It should also be noted that ARMS reviewed well below EPD's greatest games.

If massive publishers like Ubisoft, EA, or Activision/Blizzard help develop and release simpler projects with low budgets, I won't automatically assume sales close to their best-selling franchises.

Wasn't Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker also made by EPD? It sold rather poorly on the Switch and had abysmal figures on the 3DS, the Wii U sales likely constrained due to the tiny installed base. Heck, look at something like 1-2 Switch, from EPD as well, selling 2-3 million, or Tank Troopers on 3DS. The point I'm making is; is ARMS a failure given its budget and the realistic expectations one should have from a new IP with a niche concept even if a studio with pedigree made it? My answer would easily be no, 2 million + is great for what it is and likely very profitable.

First Party software needs to distinguish itself from Third Party software.  The purpose of Third Party software is to turn a good profit for the publisher.  The purpose of First Party software is to sell hardware.  The best profits for a console maker comes from royalties on Third Party software.  In order to achieve this, they need to get a large console base, and that comes from compelling First Party software.

That's why ARMS really should not have a sequel.  It didn't move hardware.  The same team could have made a 2D Mario or Wii Sports Resort sequel.  Neither of these games has a huge budget and yet they both move hardware.  Or if they want a new successful IP, then they should scrap ARMS and try something completely new.  ARMS is not moving hardware and that is why it isn't worth it for them to make a sequel.

I'm aware of all those things, that's not really the core of what I'm saying. My main point is that one can't stick certain expectations on any title, especially small budget ones with niche concepts wrapped in new IP's, just because a certain studio made it and this studio happens to have made a lot of really successful games in the past.

Don't know if you quoted the wrong person or concluded that I had an opinion I don't, I actually agree 100% that ARMS shouldn't be a priority for a sequel. Using the publishers and studios I did as examples was simply to use large, well-known studios with many bestsellers under their collective belt as an illustration of scaling ones expectations based on the project itself and not only on who developed it and their performance in widely different efforts.



Replicant on 06 October 2020
Marth said:
Replicant said:

Thanks. Would you be able to use some of these sources in order to update VGC numbers?

At the moment it sadly is not possible.
VGC is currently lacking the feature to add mulitplatfrom sales as each platform entry is seperated completely from each other.

But I raised the issue with Machina again and we currently try to figure out a workaround. So stay tuned.
We want to have as many sales in the DB as possible but that is a current roadblock.

If you have some numbers for a single platform, always feel free to tag or message me and I will add that right away.

Oh, I did not know that. Thanks for the info.

Hoping you'll find a workaround. Sales charts and data is the reason I signed up :)



Raven on 06 October 2020

I would be surprised if Nintendo considered it a failure. If they were looking to turn it into a franchise though, they might be hesitant to put out a new entry any time soon.



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d21lewis on 06 October 2020

They should be pretty happy with the performance. It sold well enough and doesn't look like it cost much to produce. It lucked out being one of the few worthwhile games during the console launch window. It was the "Lost Planet" of Switch games. It would take a lot to get me to buy the sequel, though.