Is ARMS a failure, or not?

[Mummelmann]

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Mummelmann said:

Who expected ARMS to sell crazy numbers? It looked like a pretty niche idea from the beginning. And like another user mentioned; the pedigree or size of a studio does in no way indicate expectations of sales, especially if the budget is small (ARMS was not an expensive production and thus not a huge investment). With titles sporting more bloated budgets, higher sales expectations should follow. It should also be noted that ARMS reviewed well below EPD's greatest games.

If massive publishers like Ubisoft, EA, or Activision/Blizzard help develop and release simpler projects with low budgets, I won't automatically assume sales close to their best-selling franchises.

Wasn't Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker also made by EPD? It sold rather poorly on the Switch and had abysmal figures on the 3DS, the Wii U sales likely constrained due to the tiny installed base. Heck, look at something like 1-2 Switch, from EPD as well, selling 2-3 million, or Tank Troopers on 3DS. The point I'm making is; is ARMS a failure given its budget and the realistic expectations one should have from a new IP with a niche concept even if a studio with pedigree made it? My answer would easily be no, 2 million + is great for what it is and likely very profitable.

First Party software needs to distinguish itself from Third Party software.  The purpose of Third Party software is to turn a good profit for the publisher.  The purpose of First Party software is to sell hardware.  The best profits for a console maker comes from royalties on Third Party software.  In order to achieve this, they need to get a large console base, and that comes from compelling First Party software.

That's why ARMS really should not have a sequel.  It didn't move hardware.  The same team could have made a 2D Mario or Wii Sports Resort sequel.  Neither of these games has a huge budget and yet they both move hardware.  Or if they want a new successful IP, then they should scrap ARMS and try something completely new.  ARMS is not moving hardware and that is why it isn't worth it for them to make a sequel.

I'm aware of all those things, that's not really the core of what I'm saying. My main point is that one can't stick certain expectations on any title, especially small budget ones with niche concepts wrapped in new IP's, just because a certain studio made it and this studio happens to have made a lot of really successful games in the past.

Don't know if you quoted the wrong person or concluded that I had an opinion I don't, I actually agree 100% that ARMS shouldn't be a priority for a sequel. Using the publishers and studios I did as examples was simply to use large, well-known studios with many bestsellers under their collective belt as an illustration of scaling ones expectations based on the project itself and not only on who developed it and their performance in widely different efforts.