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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware 5 Oct 2019

Worth noting this is the week the new taxes came into effect in Japan, which is why Switch dropped so much. PS4 sales were halved too, but half is a smaller drop when you're selling 24k than when you're selling 190k.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

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curl-6 said:

Worth noting this is the week the new taxes came into effect in Japan, which is why Switch dropped so much. PS4 sales were halved too, but half is a smaller drop when you're selling 24k than when you're selling 190k.

What is this tax thing I keep hearing about?



Dulfite said:
curl-6 said:

Worth noting this is the week the new taxes came into effect in Japan, which is why Switch dropped so much. PS4 sales were halved too, but half is a smaller drop when you're selling 24k than when you're selling 190k.

What is this tax thing I keep hearing about?

From the 1st of Octobre, Japan increased a consumer tax, from 8 to 10%. This is directly an increase of 2% in every video games product...Or only for the eshop, this is not fully clear to me. Anyway, it has been a long time I had not brought the stock topic here, the share value has taken a strong hit from this, it has been now decreasing for a while because of the combinaison of these 3 events :

- Lite sales not reaching 300.000 at launch, even if we know these is completly stupid.

- The drif issue because some people spread the rumor that the stick was exactly the same but actually no one with serious qualification has really demonstrated it

- and to finish this tax. Last time, years ago still, when japan increased this tax from 5 to 8%, the whole economy of Japan has been stunned for half a year.



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curl-6 said:

Worth noting this is the week the new taxes came into effect in Japan, which is why Switch dropped so much. PS4 sales were halved too, but half is a smaller drop when you're selling 24k than when you're selling 190k.

Taxes played a role but they are being overblown.

PS4 had a promotion going on in the last few weeks which has now ended.

Switch had Lite+Zelda 2 weeks ago and DQXI+special edition OG model last week.

Big drops were going to happen regardless of the tax hike.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Well it looks strange that Switch would get such small lead so short after Lite.



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Alex_The_Hedgehog said:
Just a few more weeks and Switch will hit the 40 million mark.

The question is will it do 100M in under 6yrs.

And of the PS4 and Switch who got to 40M/50M first.



Intrinsic said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:
Just a few more weeks and Switch will hit the 40 million mark.

The question is will it do 100M in under 6yrs.

And of the PS4 and Switch who got to 40M/50M first.

PS4

  • 40M at roughly 30 months on the market
  • 50M at roughly 37 months on the market

NSW 

  • 36.87M at 28 months on the market - Will likely be at 41-42M shipped at 31 months on the market, depending on how large the Lite shipment were
  • 50M shipped might just happen at 34 months on the market, and sell through very likely at more than 50M on 37 months in to it's life. Lead will change when ever there's a holiday upcoming.

So.. sellthrough.. 40M probably PS4, 50M probably Switch. I'd say. 100M is just too far away to look at right now :P But safe bet would be PS4 since it has had a tremendously long peak.



zorg1000 said:
curl-6 said:

Worth noting this is the week the new taxes came into effect in Japan, which is why Switch dropped so much. PS4 sales were halved too, but half is a smaller drop when you're selling 24k than when you're selling 190k.

Taxes played a role but they are being overblown.

PS4 had a promotion going on in the last few weeks which has now ended.

Switch had Lite+Zelda 2 weeks ago and DQXI+special edition OG model last week.

Big drops were going to happen regardless of the tax hike.

I agree drops were going to happen anyway, it's just that the new taxes are a significant factor worth mentioning.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Mbolibombo said:
Intrinsic said:

The question is will it do 100M in under 6yrs.

And of the PS4 and Switch who got to 40M/50M first.

PS4

  • 40M at roughly 30 months on the market
  • 50M at roughly 37 months on the market

NSW 

  • 36.87M at 28 months on the market - Will likely be at 41-42M shipped at 31 months on the market, depending on how large the Lite shipment were
  • 50M shipped might just happen at 34 months on the market, and sell through very likely at more than 50M on 37 months in to it's life. Lead will change when ever there's a holiday upcoming.

So.. sellthrough.. 40M probably PS4, 50M probably Switch. I'd say. 100M is just too far away to look at right now :P But safe bet would be PS4 since it has had a tremendously long peak.

great info..

I would give 100M to the switch though. It got to $199 faster than the PS4. There still isn't a $199 model PS4. Then again you never know, as you said it's still too early to call.



I expect the Switch should stay within that 250-300k range until Sword/Shield comes out.
Maybe it'll get a good boost from Luigi's Mansion 3 to over 300k, but I'm not too sure.
Will have to wait and see.