Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: W39, 2019 (Sep 23 - Sep 29)

kopstudent89 said:
Switch is super impressive and Pokemon isn't even here yet. Maybe has a shot at 5m for the year in Japan.

I think 5 million is a tough goal, I would say 4.5 million is more likely.

Using Famitsu numbers

Q4 2017-1.60m

Q4 2018-1.72m

Hitting 5m would require 2.5m this quarter which is more than 3DS ever did.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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kopstudent89 said:
Switch is super impressive and Pokemon isn't even here yet. Maybe has a shot at 5m for the year in Japan.

I wouldn't bank on 5M. There are only 13 weeks left, so Switch would need to sell an average of about 191k per week for the rest of the year.

Last year during the final 13 weeks, Switch averaged 132k.
During its best holiday quarter, 3DS averaged 178k per week.
Even the DS only managed to beat a 191k average once: In its best year, 2006, it averaged 197k for the period.

So for Switch to hit 5M, it would need to reach peak-DS-level sales. It would be cool, but it's not very likely.



StarDoor said:
kopstudent89 said:
Switch is super impressive and Pokemon isn't even here yet. Maybe has a shot at 5m for the year in Japan.

I wouldn't bank on 5M. There are only 13 weeks left, so Switch would need to sell an average of about 191k per week for the rest of the year.

Last year during the final 13 weeks, Switch averaged 132k.
During its best holiday quarter, 3DS averaged 178k per week.
Even the DS only managed to beat a 191k average once: In its best year, 2006, it averaged 197k for the period.

So for Switch to hit 5M, it would need to reach peak-DS-level sales. It would be cool, but it's not very likely.

We pretty much just posted the same thing lol

I think it will fall somewhere 4.5-4.8 million (2-2.3m for Q4) range which puts it right there with the best 3DS holiday quarters (2011-2.2m, 2012-2.3m, 2013-1.8m).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Really keen to see how Switch did outside Japan for this week; obviously Dragon Quest isn't the system seller in the West that it is in Japan, but with the Lite still only in its second week, sales should still be elevated considerably above its previous baseline.

I wish there was some way to know how DQ11 S sold outside Japan too, would be really interesting to see.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

zorg1000 said:
StarDoor said:

I wouldn't bank on 5M. There are only 13 weeks left, so Switch would need to sell an average of about 191k per week for the rest of the year.

Last year during the final 13 weeks, Switch averaged 132k.
During its best holiday quarter, 3DS averaged 178k per week.
Even the DS only managed to beat a 191k average once: In its best year, 2006, it averaged 197k for the period.

So for Switch to hit 5M, it would need to reach peak-DS-level sales. It would be cool, but it's not very likely.

We pretty much just posted the same thing lol

I think it will fall somewhere 4.5-4.8 million (2-2.3m for Q4) range which puts it right there with the best 3DS holiday quarters (2011-2.2m, 2012-2.3m, 2013-1.8m).

I've just been schooled on video game sales

But seriously that's good stuff. I did think 5m was a bit too optimistic but my thought process was that the Switch Lite + Pokemon combo might just do it. As both of you mentioned it's gonna have to do historical numbers which is highly unlikely. 

2-2.3m is a fair estimate but the Switch in Japan still has someways to grow and the Switch Lite might do some interesting things there. 



YNWA

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MasonADC said:
outlawauron said:

That was shipped + digital, but still very good numbers. Especially as it was slightly undershipped.

I don't know how many threads this argument will just keep appearing in. Shipped + digital for DQXI in the West was ~800k as of Nov 2018. Source

The issue with that source is that it is using sell through numbers to determine shipped numbers. If sell through was really 3.2 million, shouldn't shipped be 3.4 or 3.5 million? Also, it doesn't account for any sales in Asia outside of Japan. So yeah, definitely not 800k. 

At the point that data was given, the odds of any new game shipments for DQ11 being in large numbers is incredibly low. The game was old and games like Dragon Quest won't get new shipments in Japan until it gets re-released as part of cheaper packaging. There's simply no demand for it as the market gets plenty of used copies. It's safe to assume that between PS4 and PC, it's shipped + digital was closer to 800k by Nov 2018 than the 400k you were going with.



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