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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly results (Switch 36.87 million)

colafitte said:
The impression i have with Switch after these numbers is mixed.

It's obvious 1st party games sales and US, EU and JP hardware sales have been very strong, but Nintendo still has work to do in other areas, because if Switch has sold 210M games and MK 8 DX, SMO, SSBU, ZBOTW, PKLG, SP2, SMP, NSMBUD, 1-2S, and MTenA sum already almost 100M of those sales, that means the rest of the games (mostly 3rd party games) are not selling that well....

I presume is part of having such a strong 1st party lineup, it eats everything else i guess....

And 2'1M shipped this quarter and 18M projected for the total FY is lower than i expected, although is on par of what initially did at the start of the year. I guess we have been distracted by the lack of complete information about worldwide sales and we made too much fuzz about US, JP and some european countries sales... Despite all of this, if Switch ships 18M this FY it would be a phenomenal year and is still on pace to be between 3DS and Wii numbers in the end.

With new hardware (Switch Lite) and Pokemon Sword/Shild on the horizon it is probable to push hardware sales to 20M. Mario Maker 2 also pushed some hardware and it seems that hardware is not going below 200K weekly worlwide for the rest of the year.

There are many 3rd party developers that said that they sold more on Switch within one week than on PS4/PC/XBox combined lifetime. If you look at the Top 30 Nintendo eShop charts you always see many 3rd party games, even in the top 10 or top 3. So no worries.



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Mario Kart never ceases to amaze me. I really really want Nintendo to do Mario Kart 9 for the Switch, the sales would be insane.



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zorg1000 said:
Replicant said:

I wouldn't use the word "biased" but it's true that I think moderation has to be done even though no reports are submitted.

Mods cant ban people for things they dont see

Oh, I often see mods present and even commenting on said posts.

But I guess they don't moderate because no one has reported them.



siebensus4 said:
colafitte said:
The impression i have with Switch after these numbers is mixed.

It's obvious 1st party games sales and US, EU and JP hardware sales have been very strong, but Nintendo still has work to do in other areas, because if Switch has sold 210M games and MK 8 DX, SMO, SSBU, ZBOTW, PKLG, SP2, SMP, NSMBUD, 1-2S, and MTenA sum already almost 100M of those sales, that means the rest of the games (mostly 3rd party games) are not selling that well....

I presume is part of having such a strong 1st party lineup, it eats everything else i guess....

And 2'1M shipped this quarter and 18M projected for the total FY is lower than i expected, although is on par of what initially did at the start of the year. I guess we have been distracted by the lack of complete information about worldwide sales and we made too much fuzz about US, JP and some european countries sales... Despite all of this, if Switch ships 18M this FY it would be a phenomenal year and is still on pace to be between 3DS and Wii numbers in the end.

With new hardware (Switch Lite) and Pokemon Sword/Shild on the horizon it is probable to push hardware sales to 20M. Mario Maker 2 also pushed some hardware and it seems that hardware is not going below 200K weekly worlwide for the rest of the year.

There are many 3rd party developers that said that they sold more on Switch within one week than on PS4/PC/XBox combined lifetime. If you look at the Top 30 Nintendo eShop charts you always see many 3rd party games, even in the top 10 or top 3. So no worries.

Of course is possible. I just said that i lowered my expectation from "certain to surpass 20M shipped" to "probably around 19M", but is just that...nothing set on stone. I said recently that I expect Switch Lite to be a success, but we are in the same situation as last year only barely better. To reach 20M you need a stronger 1st half of the year, and Switch did not have it. Switch ended last year selling around 16M despite having an enormous holiday season in sales. I don't expect this year having a 20% better holiday season, in fact, i don't expect better numbers at all. That's why maybe Switch will be able to sell 15-20% more until Nov, but after that, the rest of the year will be probably flat compared to 2018. That's why i expect 19M more than anything.

As for this perception that "many 3rd party developers sold more on Switch than.....", is the most half truth thing told in forums in recent years. Yeah some very niche 3rd party indies have sold better, but you never see news about how MK11 or CTR have sold waaaaaaaaay more on PS4 than on Switch, for example. And just CTR selling 1-2M more in the first few weeks can be more than all of those other "3rd party games" selling more on Switch. The numbers are there. 210M units of software sold on 36'9M Switch sold. With recent Super Mario Maker 2 numbers, you can say that the 12 best selling Switch games have sold already 100M between them. That leaves 110M units sold for all the rest of games launched on the Switch, and how many games were available on Switch already??hundreds??. By it's second year, PS4 and XBO already had 3rd party games than could sell only by themselves more than 10M on that platform. Switch doesn't have nothing remotely close to that. In fact, i think i saw somewhere someone saying 1st party sales accounted for 74% of Switch sales (i don't know if he was referring to lifetime or just this quartes sales), but i couldn't confirm that number, but if it's true....., well, that explains my point.



I guess I am eating crow, I never expected Odyssey to reach 15 million, 20 might even be within reach now.

Also, senior moment: Super Mario Party sells 7 million and after 9 months, I can’t find a physical copy anywhere. You kids and your digital, consarnit, maybe I’ll have to try toys r us.



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Looking at the software to hardware ratio between the Switch and the 3DS, the Switch is doing much better with 5.7 games per system while the 3DS is at 5 games by system. Considering this ratio usually goes up as time goes by the Switch should easily sell more software than the 3DS.

Last edited by TruckOSaurus - on 30 July 2019

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colafitte said:
Marth said:

Switch will always be carried by 1st party software sales.

It came at a weird point in the console lifecycle so the FIFA/Madden/etc crowd already had their preferred console for those big 3rd party games.
And its missing a lot of the big hitters when it comes to 3rd party. Like Call of Duty / Battlefield / GTA / Far Cry / Assassins Creed (or does that poor AC3 Remaster count?)

The demographics of Switch users is much older then other Nintendo consoles so pretty sure the audience would be there for those games.
Witcher could become one of the better 3rd party titles for Switch. MK11 already had a really strong performance on Switch according to NPD.

I still think hardware will be more than 18M. They had to ship less this quarter to reduce inventory as this current Switch model gets phased out completely. The new model goes on sale in a few days.

Yeah, you're correct of course, but what i meant is that Nintendo, with this strategy bets all the success of their home console in just a few games. If the main Mario and/or Zelda are a huge commercial and/or criticial success it's almost a guarantee the console is going to be a succeess too and other first party IP's are going to receive the attention to flourish and sell well (like Mario Party, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Donkey Kong, ...etc). But, if the main Mario or Zelda game is not really popular or a sales phenomena it drags the sales of the console like it happened with the WiiU or GC. That's what i meant, i find this strategy really unbalanced and more than ever now that they have decided to aim for the all in one hybrid console style like the Switch.

If it works it's really, i mean REALLY profitable for them, but if not......Nintendo will find themselves in a far worse situation that what they were during 2013-2015 era.

That's why i think Switch, despite having such a success this gen with milestone record sales for some of their franchises won't reach Wii lifetime software sales and that could put Nintendo in an impossible situation with the Switch succesor. Next gen consoles launching next year won't help receiving more 3rd party support either, so Nintendo will have the pressure to launch sequels to beloved games that had put the bar way too high. Is Nintendo capable of doing that?, of course, but this is the hardest way of achieving success.

As for the prediction, i side by Switch being more than 18M this year too, but a few weeks ago i was almost certain it would ship more than 20M this year, but i'm not as sure anymore. 19M still seems like the safest bet this year.

I know you're trying to reintroduce this "3rd party won't sell on Nintendo" narrative, but is there actual real data behind this. We don't have exact numbers on software on this site anymore, I kind of want you to elaborate on your conclusion.

About the part in bold: Some people on this site (not naming names) tried to convince others here that the Switch is not competing with the Playstation or the Xbox. So why would it be competing with the Scarlett and PS5? Seems like a lot of wishful thinking for when it suits another curious narrative.



OTBWY said:
colafitte said:

Next gen consoles launching next year won't help receiving more 3rd party support either, so Nintendo will have the pressure to launch sequels to beloved games that had put the bar way too high.


About the part in bold: Some people on this site (not naming names) tried to convince others here that the Switch is not competing with the Playstation or the Xbox. So why would it be competing with the Scarlett and PS5? Seems like a lot of wishful thinking for when it suits another curious narrative.

The Switch isn't directly competing with the PlayStation or Xbox, so yes it won't be directly competing with Scarlett/PS5 either. Though that doesn't necessary mean the PS5/Scarlett won't cause a reduction in third party support for the Switch. They just won't cause a reduction in sales of the Switch, because the success of the Switch, like any Nintendo Console, is not reliant on third party software.

They are not direct competitors because the success of one does not impact the success of another. Unlike PlayStation/Xbox. No matter how well the PS5/Scarlett do, the Switch will still be doing great. The Switch entering the market with a hugely successful launch year had no impact on sales of the PS4, and PS5 if it has a very succesful launch will not be detrimental to the Switch either.



Seems like Nintendo doesn't need to match the competition in power.



OTBWY said:
colafitte said:

Yeah, you're correct of course, but what i meant is that Nintendo, with this strategy bets all the success of their home console in just a few games. If the main Mario and/or Zelda are a huge commercial and/or criticial success it's almost a guarantee the console is going to be a succeess too and other first party IP's are going to receive the attention to flourish and sell well (like Mario Party, Metroid, Fire Emblem, Donkey Kong, ...etc). But, if the main Mario or Zelda game is not really popular or a sales phenomena it drags the sales of the console like it happened with the WiiU or GC. That's what i meant, i find this strategy really unbalanced and more than ever now that they have decided to aim for the all in one hybrid console style like the Switch.

If it works it's really, i mean REALLY profitable for them, but if not......Nintendo will find themselves in a far worse situation that what they were during 2013-2015 era.

That's why i think Switch, despite having such a success this gen with milestone record sales for some of their franchises won't reach Wii lifetime software sales and that could put Nintendo in an impossible situation with the Switch succesor. Next gen consoles launching next year won't help receiving more 3rd party support either, so Nintendo will have the pressure to launch sequels to beloved games that had put the bar way too high. Is Nintendo capable of doing that?, of course, but this is the hardest way of achieving success.

As for the prediction, i side by Switch being more than 18M this year too, but a few weeks ago i was almost certain it would ship more than 20M this year, but i'm not as sure anymore. 19M still seems like the safest bet this year.

I know you're trying to reintroduce this "3rd party won't sell on Nintendo" narrative, but is there actual real data behind this. We don't have exact numbers on software on this site anymore, I kind of want you to elaborate on your conclusion.

About the part in bold: Some people on this site (not naming names) tried to convince others here that the Switch is not competing with the Playstation or the Xbox. So why would it be competing with the Scarlett and PS5? Seems like a lot of wishful thinking for when it suits another curious narrative.

Let me explain then...

1st thing. We have the list of the best 12 selling games on Switch according to Nintendo (all of them 1st party), i summed the number and it gave me 100M games sold. We have 210M units of software sold on Switch. My point was that Nintendo games represent most of the sales of the console. I found that "an unbalanced strategy of success" as i explained in that point. You are welcome to agree or disagree.

The second point is related to the first. If Nintendo has not received great support from EA, Ubisoft, Activision, Capcom, ... until now, with the launch of next gen consoles and the focus those companies are going to made into PS5 and XBO, i think there's even less chances that Switch will receive more support than the one is receiving right now. I was not saying PS5 sales will impact Switch sales. So no, no curious narrative, is very straight forward what i was saying and based on actual data provided by Nintendo, just maths.

In conclusion: Nintendo Switch is mainly a Nintendo games console, that's all.