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colafitte on 30 July 2019
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siebensus4 said:
colafitte said:
The impression i have with Switch after these numbers is mixed.

It's obvious 1st party games sales and US, EU and JP hardware sales have been very strong, but Nintendo still has work to do in other areas, because if Switch has sold 210M games and MK 8 DX, SMO, SSBU, ZBOTW, PKLG, SP2, SMP, NSMBUD, 1-2S, and MTenA sum already almost 100M of those sales, that means the rest of the games (mostly 3rd party games) are not selling that well....

I presume is part of having such a strong 1st party lineup, it eats everything else i guess....

And 2'1M shipped this quarter and 18M projected for the total FY is lower than i expected, although is on par of what initially did at the start of the year. I guess we have been distracted by the lack of complete information about worldwide sales and we made too much fuzz about US, JP and some european countries sales... Despite all of this, if Switch ships 18M this FY it would be a phenomenal year and is still on pace to be between 3DS and Wii numbers in the end.

With new hardware (Switch Lite) and Pokemon Sword/Shild on the horizon it is probable to push hardware sales to 20M. Mario Maker 2 also pushed some hardware and it seems that hardware is not going below 200K weekly worlwide for the rest of the year.

There are many 3rd party developers that said that they sold more on Switch within one week than on PS4/PC/XBox combined lifetime. If you look at the Top 30 Nintendo eShop charts you always see many 3rd party games, even in the top 10 or top 3. So no worries.

Of course is possible. I just said that i lowered my expectation from "certain to surpass 20M shipped" to "probably around 19M", but is just that...nothing set on stone. I said recently that I expect Switch Lite to be a success, but we are in the same situation as last year only barely better. To reach 20M you need a stronger 1st half of the year, and Switch did not have it. Switch ended last year selling around 16M despite having an enormous holiday season in sales. I don't expect this year having a 20% better holiday season, in fact, i don't expect better numbers at all. That's why maybe Switch will be able to sell 15-20% more until Nov, but after that, the rest of the year will be probably flat compared to 2018. That's why i expect 19M more than anything.

As for this perception that "many 3rd party developers sold more on Switch than.....", is the most half truth thing told in forums in recent years. Yeah some very niche 3rd party indies have sold better, but you never see news about how MK11 or CTR have sold waaaaaaaaay more on PS4 than on Switch, for example. And just CTR selling 1-2M more in the first few weeks can be more than all of those other "3rd party games" selling more on Switch. The numbers are there. 210M units of software sold on 36'9M Switch sold. With recent Super Mario Maker 2 numbers, you can say that the 12 best selling Switch games have sold already 100M between them. That leaves 110M units sold for all the rest of games launched on the Switch, and how many games were available on Switch already??hundreds??. By it's second year, PS4 and XBO already had 3rd party games than could sell only by themselves more than 10M on that platform. Switch doesn't have nothing remotely close to that. In fact, i think i saw somewhere someone saying 1st party sales accounted for 74% of Switch sales (i don't know if he was referring to lifetime or just this quartes sales), but i couldn't confirm that number, but if it's true....., well, that explains my point.