Question, does tencent help with the PS4/ Xbox as well?

Well, I wager a guess. China has about 1.3 billion people, but still a lot of them in rural regions are poor. But in the coastal cities in the east many people are decently wealthy and adopt a western lifestyle. I guess that is about 300 million people - about as big as the US.

What is more, so far they had no real spark reagrding consoles. Many chinese play on PC or phone, but console is not very common yet. I would say the situation is not unlikely like in the US at the first to third gen. The NES sold about 30 million, the Atari 2600 about 20 million. Other devices sold less. I think therefore, 30M is the upper limit. The lower limit I would set at about 10M, as Tencent sure as hell will market this thing and the novelty that Switch can be used docked and as handheld will help. So 10M-30M. No game changer, but not a drop in the bucket either.

That is some decent reasoning there, but when the Atari launched the US population was closer to 200m.  But the range sounds about right 10m - 30m. 

However another thing I am not sure of is the laws about consoles in China.  I know in some other countries have high tarriffs and such on consoles, and that prevents them from selling too much there.  I don't know if there are Chinese laws that would prevent consoles from becoming popular.

The Japanese only play Japanese video games for the same reason why Americans only watch American movies.  Once you understand why Americans only like American movies, then it's pretty easy to understand why Japanese only like Japanese games.

I am not sure tarriffs are that important. Sure, they have in critical price points an influence. But more important is wealth distribution compared to the prices (tarriffs and all included). Mostly it also aren't the tarriffs as much as console (especiall Nintendo ones) aren't launched in all countries, so the ones available are imported that adds heavily to the price. As Switch is launched officially and is also produced in China I don't expect too hefty of price drives here. More importantly the relatively wealthy population of coastal cities cna probably cough up some more money if they want to play the device.

The bigger hindrance in my opinion is the chinese regulation on games. As games there has to fulfill many requirements and have to officially approved (by the way: as this is true for movie and series too this lead to differences in production of korean drama that also targets china, as it must be approved beforehand these series are produced completely beforehand instead of while the show is running). This probably means that the big amount of Indies can't come over (because nobody can handle this much), only selected games of big publishers. If that includes Nintendo evergreens though, I don't worry too much.

Could be anything. I'll be optimisitc due to the TenCent involvement and say 10M

This could actually play in Nintendos favor, as few of their titles should have problems with the regulators there, unlike PS4 and especially XBO first party titles.

About three fiddy.

No, I think it's doubtful they will sell much. China has always been a market where they just blatanly copy products and release it as something of their own. Also, people in China will drop a thing very quickly cause of political reasons. If there are problems with Japan in the future, they will most likely do Switch burnings.

Tomorow the financial report si released, 2 days after the press conference...I can't wait to see the mess with the share price for the next 8 days.
I hope I have chosen the right time for a RDV with my bank advisor.

If YOU would not really care, you would do the best thing for it : ignore me.

But your post, I am sorry, I apologize for you if you are frustrated because you are probably not smart or brave enough to play with shares to make money.

Fine ! thanks for the notice, I won't talk about this anymore. This is not topics that we can debate here, there is absolutly no open topic about it. Instead people prefer to bring odd other topics like sex and politics rather than investment in the video games sector.

Yeah, I don't know how Chinese regulations would affect their ability to play console games.  Although Bofferbrauer2 makes a good point in that Nintendo games are the least likely to get tripped up by any kind of censor.  One possibility is that Nintendo ends up with something of a console monopoly in China, because their games are so squeaky clean.