Forums - Sales Discussion - How many Switch Nintendo can ship to China

Total eventual Switch shipment in China

less than 2 million 8 22.86%
 
2-4 millions 5 14.29%
 
4-6 millions 5 14.29%
 
6-8 millions 3 8.57%
 
8-10 millions 4 11.43%
 
10-12 millions 3 8.57%
 
12-14 millions 0 0.00%
 
14-16 millions 1 2.86%
 
16-18 millions 2 5.71%
 
more than 18 millions 4 11.43%
 
Total:35

Shame, I wish I had more votes here, but the tendency seems to go for a 6-8 millions for China.
I also had an hypothesis, feel free to answer with agressivity this time if you think it deserves it but at least I will know if my thought are coherent or not.
I always believed that the XBOX1 was performing poorly in Japan, because many japanese did not want to buy the console from the console maker from the country who destroyed them in 1945... Will the Chinese people be attracted from the console maker, from the country who considered them as "slave stock" for centuries ?



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LET'S FACE THIS FACT : The Switch is the last physical video game system of the history who has a chance to beat PS2's sales.

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Amnesia said:
Shame, I wish I had more votes here, but the tendency seems to go for a 6-8 millions for China.
I also had an hypothesis, feel free to answer with agressivity this time if you think it deserves it but at least I will know if my thought are coherent or not.
I always believed that the XBOX1 was performing poorly in Japan, because many japanese did not want to buy the console from the console maker from the country who destroyed them in 1945... Will the Chinese people be attracted from the console maker, from the country who considered them as "slave stock" for centuries ?

The vast majority of people who live today don't care about what happened generations ago.

The Xbox One performed poorly in Japan because Microsoft had long established a negative reputation for the Xbox brand in Japan and doubled down on that with the XB1. The original Xbox barely offered any noteworthy games for the Japanese market, so it was of little interest for gamers (~500k lifetime). The negative perception carried over to the following console generation because Microsoft kept the same name; however, Microsoft made more of an effort to have appropriate games on the Xbox 360, so lifetime sales were notably higher (>1.5m). At around 2010 Microsoft had cut back on those efforts significantly and that mindset carried over to the Xbox One, so a sharp decline in sales was expected to begin with. The XB1 will finish with sales that are about 1/3 of what the original Xbox achieved and that's because it doesn't offer anything that can't be had on the PS4; the PS4 has everything the XB1 has, plus more.

Since Apple products have performed well in Japan, the assertion that the Japanese have a widespread inherent bias against American products doesn't hold water.

The Chinese won't shun Nintendo because Nintendo is Japanese. What will be important is how Switch will be distributed in China and how frequent game releases will be, and if Chinese gamers are open-minded to the different payment model of a console because the Chinese market is used to free-to-play. Since the questions about distribution will most likely be answered within the next week, there's no real point in throwing out wild guesses right now and speculate about lifetime sales.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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lol, they will ship one unit and then the Chinese will copy it and sell a cheaper Ninten swich! . Really though, the knock offs issue is pretty bad in China. I wouldn’t expect a ton of sales here... the Chinese people will be able to buy a knock off that plays all the switch games for half the price...



People expected similar things for the PS4 and XBO...
It may be different now, but I wouldn't count on it.



Question, does tencent help with the PS4/ Xbox as well?

Last edited by MasonADC - on 28 July 2019

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
I've got no sense for China. I'm still waiting to find out more about how China will receive an actual console. It could be almost nothing, or it could be a huge ton. My biggest skepticism about China has to do with supply though. Nintendo is about to have trouble supplying the places where it is well established. I am not sure how they can supply China at the same time. It might just make Nintendo even more short supplied.

In the end, I still think Switch total sales will surpass PS2 even before China is taken into account. After adding in China who knows? It might be a drop in the bucket or it might double their total sales. I need to see how Nintendo is received there before I can decide.

Well, I wager a guess. China has about 1.3 billion people, but still a lot of them in rural regions are poor. But in the coastal cities in the east many people are decently wealthy and adopt a western lifestyle. I guess that is about 300 million people - about as big as the US.

What is more, so far they had no real spark reagrding consoles. Many chinese play on PC or phone, but console is not very common yet. I would say the situation is not unlikely like in the US at the first to third gen. The NES sold about 30 million, the Atari 2600 about 20 million. Other devices sold less. I think therefore, 30M is the upper limit. The lower limit I would set at about 10M, as Tencent sure as hell will market this thing and the novelty that Switch can be used docked and as handheld will help. So 10M-30M. No game changer, but not a drop in the bucket either.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 28 July 2019

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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I wanted to pick less than 2 million, but the Nintendo fan in me made me be optimistic and picked 2-4 million.



     

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Mnementh said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:
I've got no sense for China. I'm still waiting to find out more about how China will receive an actual console. It could be almost nothing, or it could be a huge ton. My biggest skepticism about China has to do with supply though. Nintendo is about to have trouble supplying the places where it is well established. I am not sure how they can supply China at the same time. It might just make Nintendo even more short supplied.

In the end, I still think Switch total sales will surpass PS2 even before China is taken into account. After adding in China who knows? It might be a drop in the bucket or it might double their total sales. I need to see how Nintendo is received there before I can decide.

Well, I wager a guess. China has about 1.3 billion people, but still a lot of them in rural regions are poor. But in the coastal cities in the east many people are decently wealthy and adopt a western lifestyle. I guess that is about 300 million people - about as big as the US.

What is more, so far they had no real spark reagrding consoles. Many chinese play on PC or phone, but console is not very common yet. I would say the situation is not unlikely like in the US at the first to third gen. The NES sold about 30 million, the Atari 2600 about 20 million. Other devices sold less. I think therefore, 30M is the upper limit. The lower limit I would set at about 10M, as Tencent sure as hell will market this thing and the novelty that Switch can be used docked and as handheld will help. So 10M-30M. No game changer, but not a drop in the bucket either.

That is some decent reasoning there, but when the Atari launched the US population was closer to 200m.  But the range sounds about right 10m - 30m. 

However another thing I am not sure of is the laws about consoles in China.  I know in some other countries have high tarriffs and such on consoles, and that prevents them from selling too much there.  I don't know if there are Chinese laws that would prevent consoles from becoming popular.

Amnesia said:
Shame, I wish I had more votes here, but the tendency seems to go for a 6-8 millions for China.
I also had an hypothesis, feel free to answer with agressivity this time if you think it deserves it but at least I will know if my thought are coherent or not.
I always believed that the XBOX1 was performing poorly in Japan, because many japanese did not want to buy the console from the console maker from the country who destroyed them in 1945... Will the Chinese people be attracted from the console maker, from the country who considered them as "slave stock" for centuries ?

The Japanese only play Japanese video games for the same reason why Americans only watch American movies.  Once you understand why Americans only like American movies, then it's pretty easy to understand why Japanese only like Japanese games.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Mnementh said:

Well, I wager a guess. China has about 1.3 billion people, but still a lot of them in rural regions are poor. But in the coastal cities in the east many people are decently wealthy and adopt a western lifestyle. I guess that is about 300 million people - about as big as the US.

What is more, so far they had no real spark reagrding consoles. Many chinese play on PC or phone, but console is not very common yet. I would say the situation is not unlikely like in the US at the first to third gen. The NES sold about 30 million, the Atari 2600 about 20 million. Other devices sold less. I think therefore, 30M is the upper limit. The lower limit I would set at about 10M, as Tencent sure as hell will market this thing and the novelty that Switch can be used docked and as handheld will help. So 10M-30M. No game changer, but not a drop in the bucket either.

That is some decent reasoning there, but when the Atari launched the US population was closer to 200m.  But the range sounds about right 10m - 30m. 

However another thing I am not sure of is the laws about consoles in China.  I know in some other countries have high tarriffs and such on consoles, and that prevents them from selling too much there.  I don't know if there are Chinese laws that would prevent consoles from becoming popular.

I am not sure tarriffs are that important. Sure, they have in critical price points an influence. But more important is wealth distribution compared to the prices (tarriffs and all included). Mostly it also aren't the tarriffs as much as console (especiall Nintendo ones) aren't launched in all countries, so the ones available are imported that adds heavily to the price. As Switch is launched officially and is also produced in China I don't expect too hefty of price drives here. More importantly the relatively wealthy population of coastal cities cna probably cough up some more money if they want to play the device.

The bigger hindrance in my opinion is the chinese regulation on games. As games there has to fulfill many requirements and have to officially approved (by the way: as this is true for movie and series too this lead to differences in production of korean drama that also targets china, as it must be approved beforehand these series are produced completely beforehand instead of while the show is running). This probably means that the big amount of Indies can't come over (because nobody can handle this much), only selected games of big publishers. If that includes Nintendo evergreens though, I don't worry too much.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

Could be anything. I'll be optimisitc due to the TenCent involvement and say 10M

Mnementh said:

The bigger hindrance in my opinion is the chinese regulation on games. As games there has to fulfill many requirements and have to officially approved (by the way: as this is true for movie and series too this lead to differences in production of korean drama that also targets china, as it must be approved beforehand these series are produced completely beforehand instead of while the show is running). This probably means that the big amount of Indies can't come over (because nobody can handle this much), only selected games of big publishers. If that includes Nintendo evergreens though, I don't worry too much.

This could actually play in Nintendos favor, as few of their titles should have problems with the regulators there, unlike PS4 and especially XBO first party titles.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 29 July 2019