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Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales week 26, Jun 24 - 30 2019, Famitsu

Last week some people told me that I would regret my thoughts....Well, things are even worse than I expected.

We are seeing a 1/1,2 Millions worldwide for MM2....It is weak, Odysee got more than 2M in 3 days and the install base was 8 millions, it is 3,5x more today.

But I still trust the game for legs, it will get 10M certainly.

But now what I was saying gets confirmed : to just recover the same pace as last year, the Switch needs a price cut of 45€ (basically it was MM2 included with the console for those who decided to buy the Switch in Japan), AND the release of one of the 3 10 millions seller of 2019. There was 4, but Animal Crossing is now for 2020.

I am not afraid for 2019-2020, there is a massive load of strong games (1-5 millions sellers), and with the 2 new models coming soon we might see regular week at 450K or more for the Switch, but definitely, the initial Switch with its initial price level is declining. It needs now strong boosters to keep the momentum.



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konnichiwa said:
Pinkie_pie said:
Crash team racing didnt release? I think that ps4 was able to sell 20k was because of crash

I read somewhere it releases first of august but it also barely has pre orders on COMG...

Crash isn't popular in Japan. Crash N Sane Trilogy did 30K first week on PS4, while the Switch version did 5K (keep in mind this came out a year after PS4). Because Crash is popular in Europe (most popular territory) and NA doesn't mean everywhere else is popular. 



Amnesia said:

Last week some people told me that I would regret my thoughts....Well, things are even worse than I expected.

We are seeing a 1/1,2 Millions worldwide for MM2....It is weak, Odysee got more than 2M in 3 days and the install base was 8 millions, it is 3,5x more today.

But I still trust the game for legs, it will get 10M certainly.

But now what I was saying gets confirmed : to just recover the same pace as last year, the Switch needs a price cut of 45€ (basically it was MM2 included with the console for those who decided to buy the Switch in Japan), AND the release of one of the 3 10 millions seller of 2019. There was 4, but Animal Crossing is now for 2020.

I am not afraid for 2019-2020, there is a massive load of strong games (1-5 millions sellers), and with the 2 new models coming soon we might see regular week at 450K or more for the Switch, but definitely, the initial Switch with its initial price level is declining. It needs now strong boosters to keep the momentum.

Are you saying that MM2 will have a sell through of 1.2 in the first week? Because that’s hard to believe. Odyssey is an outlier, Mario games tend to not be front loaded, and instead a slow burner. The switch is up Yoy for the week so I don’t get what you mean 



MasonADC said:
Amnesia said:

Last week some people told me that I would regret my thoughts....Well, things are even worse than I expected.

We are seeing a 1/1,2 Millions worldwide for MM2....It is weak, Odysee got more than 2M in 3 days and the install base was 8 millions, it is 3,5x more today.

But I still trust the game for legs, it will get 10M certainly.

But now what I was saying gets confirmed : to just recover the same pace as last year, the Switch needs a price cut of 45€ (basically it was MM2 included with the console for those who decided to buy the Switch in Japan), AND the release of one of the 3 10 millions seller of 2019. There was 4, but Animal Crossing is now for 2020.

I am not afraid for 2019-2020, there is a massive load of strong games (1-5 millions sellers), and with the 2 new models coming soon we might see regular week at 450K or more for the Switch, but definitely, the initial Switch with its initial price level is declining. It needs now strong boosters to keep the momentum.

Are you saying that MM2 will have a sell through of 1.2 in the first week? Because that’s hard to believe. Odyssey is an outlier, Mario games tend to not be front loaded, and instead a slow burner. The switch is up Yoy for the week so I don’t get what you mean 

The Switch is up by a modest 8000, with the release of one of the 3 main strike of the year, + a 5000 yen discount, vs last year with nothing big at the same moment.



Sogreblute said:
konnichiwa said:

I read somewhere it releases first of august but it also barely has pre orders on COMG...

Crash isn't popular in Japan. Crash N Sane Trilogy did 30K first week on PS4, while the Switch version did 5K (keep in mind this came out a year after PS4). Because Crash is popular in Europe (most popular territory) and NA doesn't mean everywhere else is popular. 

^^ Well he was on ps one C2 was even a million seller.






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Amnesia said:
MasonADC said:

Are you saying that MM2 will have a sell through of 1.2 in the first week? Because that’s hard to believe. Odyssey is an outlier, Mario games tend to not be front loaded, and instead a slow burner. The switch is up Yoy for the week so I don’t get what you mean 

The Switch is up by a modest 8000, with the release of one of the 3 main strike of the year, + a 5000 yen discount, vs last year with nothing big at the same moment.

ok? Even better if this week is the start of a new baseline 



This year's baseline for the Switch is 40.338 up 5,8% from 38.126 while PS4 baseline is 14011, -27,97% compared to last year's 17.930

The PS4 this week is -38 units compared the same week last year. A flat yty week

Update: Charts corrected



I guess I had unrealistic expectations. I thought the game would sell double first week and push Switch over 100k. I also thought Yokai Watch 4 would help too. I was wrong on both accounts.

Switch needs a cheaper model and fast.



1doesnotsimply

Switch more than 3:1 over PS4.

How come PS4 increased over last week, was there a deal, holiday, or did it get a bump for that Samurai game?



curl-6 said:

Switch more than 3:1 over PS4.

How come PS4 increased over last week, was there a deal, holiday, or did it get a bump for that Samurai game?

More the baseball game than Samurai Showdown. after all, the latter sold only 16k copies while the former sold a good 75k.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 04 July 2019