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Machiavellian said:
I also have been watching the Manchin show for the last few days and I am sure getting a lot of pub on conservative media isn't really what the GOP really wanted since he is making statements that bring to light minimum wage increase and changes to the filibuster. Should be interesting if this turns into something or just a one shot move and Manchin fades away. I do believe that Biden plan on healthcare, 15 dollar minimum wage should be the focus within the house and Senate now while the issues are hot. Start to dumb up support and get the GOP into denial mode so that its a nice campaign issue come up for 2022. I actually do believe there are some GOP members who are ready to break away from the current course the party is going but not sure if there are 10 of them in the Senate. Should be interesting to see if their is any real play to get GOP to vote on these 2 issues. |
I feel like the next two bills will be Infrastructure and Voting Rights, but I'm not sure the order. There has already been a lot of talk about an infrastructure bill coming soon including possibly attaching the minimum wage increase to that bill. Infrastructure is a generally bipartisan priority so it presents kind of a win/win for Democrats: Either they get it done after four years of failure under Trump, or they get Republican pushback on it forcing them to change the filibuster rules to get it passed, which lays out the red carpet for HR1 to pass (although likely with a lot of changes).
I don't think there will be any large movement on health care this year. There may be a few small bits attached here and there, such as something to deal with Medical costs associated with Covid (does anything like this exist), but it doesn't feel like there is any momentum here, and it is something that is likely to divide Democrats and the country more than it will unite them. I think the appearance of bipartisanship (in terms of what the country wants, not in terms of what Red politicians want) is very important right now to give Democrats license to continue to act alone.
So my somewhat realistic hopes for the next few months in the Senate looks like this:
-Infrastructure (with some small Immigration reforms/concessions and Minimum Wage wrapped into it) will get Dem support, but will fail due to the filibuster. This will lead to Dems revising Senate rules to change to a talking filibuster. This lasts for a few days, but eventually breaks, allowing Dems to push forward a fairly mediocre infrastructure bill with some fairly mediocre (but important) changes attached to it.
-This leads to a lot of PR from the Dems making it clear that the Republicans are just being obstructionist and not coming to the table, giving them some shielding from the Republican freak out that will inevitably happen over HR1. There will be a lot of concessions made, but it will pass with some very important measures attached to it protecting voting rights.
