By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What year do you think Switch's successor will release?

 

I think it will release in...

2021 5 8.77%
 
2022 7 12.28%
 
2023 27 47.37%
 
2024 12 21.05%
 
2025 or later 6 10.53%
 
Total:57

Yeah I'm gonna go with 2023.

They'd be stupid to replace it any sooner frankly, with how brilliantly it's selling. It'll cruise passed 100 million if they don't foolishly cut it short.

Hell, 3DS got 6 years before replacement and it was far more outdated than the Switch. 



Around the Network

Probably 2022, no later than 2023



FloatingWaffles said: 

The problem is once the next gen PS and Xbox arrive in what a lot of people assume will be 2020, that will make third party support infinitely harder for the Switch to maintain as the gap in tech will be even wider. Usually for the first 1-2 years of a new generation games are cross-gen though, so I think any cross gen games (AKA still releasing on PS4 and Xbox One) in 2020 and 2021 can still possibly get Switch ports, but once everything transitions fully to only the next gen PS/Xbox then the gap might just be too wide for most big games. 

The majority of AAA PS/XB games dont come to Switch as it is so this is a very minor issue. Most of Switch's 3rd party support consists of indies, Japanese games, kid/family titles, previous gen ports/remasters, retro compilations & small-mid level current gen games. There are a few expectations but for the most part PS5/XB4 shouldn't affect Switch support.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

RolStoppable said:

3. There's no reason to be concerned about PS5 and Nextbox, because the third party games that Switch is supposed to lose because of new consoles are already not coming to Switch to begin with.

 

zorg1000 said:

 

The majority of AAA PS/XB games dont come to Switch as it is so this is a very minor issue. Most of Switch's 3rd party support consists of indies, Japanese games, kid/family titles, previous gen ports/remasters, retro compilations & small-mid level current gen games. There are a few expectations but for the most part PS5/XB4 shouldn't affect Switch support.

Pretty much this, I simply don't understand the whole "Switch will fall off a cliff once PS5 arrives" thing. Sales trends show Switch and PS aren't really impacting each other directly; Switch's rise did not cut the legs off the PS4, and PS5 similarly won't cut Switch short.

It's already not getting the big Western AAA games so that won't make any difference.



2023, here's why.

They will release some kind of power upgrade, probably in 2020. That will give the Switch a longer life. Plus, Nintendo tends to have a 5-6 year life cycle in between one platform to the next. With how successful the Switch is, it will be in the 6+ years category.

They also need time for a lot of successful Switch games to get sequels on Switch. Super Mario Odyssey 2, Breath of the Wild 2, Super Mario Party 2, Mario Kart 9 (sequel to a game that was ported to Switch anyway), Splatoon 3, etc.  I think we'll get the next Smash in 2024 for the 25th anniversary, but that would thus be on the Switch's successor.

The 2023 release date would probably be March (Switch release month) or November (the industry norm).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Around the Network
Wman1996 said: 


They also need time for a lot of successful Switch games to get sequels on Switch. Super Mario Odyssey 2, Breath of the Wild 2, Super Mario Party 2, Mario Kart 9 (sequel to a game that was ported to Switch anyway), Splatoon 3, etc.  I think we'll get the next Smash in 2024 for the 25th anniversary, but that would thus be on the Switch's successor.

Eh, while I do expect we'll get a second 3D Mario on Switch, (at least I damn well hope so)  I reckon the next mainline Zelda will be cross-gen like BOTW and Twilight Princess, and that they'll save Kart 9 and Splatoon 3 for Switch's successor.



2023

Six years seems pretty standard nowadays if the console is successful, which Switch obviously is.  Sony also follows the same trend which is why I still expect PS5 to released this year or at the latest the first half of 2020.  Six years.



That depends on the route Nintendo goes with the Switch. If they follow the trend of constantly evolving mobile tech, I could see them doing incremental upgrades while adding new features to new models to keep the concept fresh. They would do something like the NEW 3DS where some games would be the higher end version only, while most would still work on both. Then when the Switch 3 comes out, 2 becomes the new low end and the current Switch is phased out. If they did something like that, I would say as soon as 2020 we could see a "successor" to the Switch.

Now if the follow conventional console cycles, I would say 2022 is a safe bet. Nintendo almost always follows a 5 year cycle and at this time the PS5 and NextBox would be entering full swing, and Nintendo will want to close that power gap for 3rd parties at that point. The current Switch could still be supported through cross gen releases of less demanding games for a few more years though.



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

I'm hoping at least 2024. Not so much because I don't want to buy new hardware, but rather because Nintendo is kind of stuck between generations.

They need to start eating away at that and try to realign their launches close to Sony and Microsoft.

I expect by 2024 the portable mode should be capable of doing PS4 pro specs and have a decent battery. It will also give them time to work on the cradle/dock whatever you want to call it, to be able to host additional power in it to boost it significantly in docked mode. Docked mode will need to be within a couple tflops of the next gen home console in order to get simultaneous releases.

Then eventually after two more gens or so Nintendo should have been able to catch up for docked mode in terms of power and handheld mode to be perhaps 75% of previous gen's console ability.



 

 

AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Jumpin said:
I'm still thinking it will be holiday season this year, or shortly after in 2020. While it is true that Nintendo has said the Switch successor is not the focus, unprompted, what that did is begin the discussion about the Switch successor; and "we have nothing to say on the matter of X" has always been videogame publisher code for "Stay tuned for details on X" - especially when the President of the company brings it up unprompted. Nintendo was also saying NX wasn't the focus in the months before the reveal trailer, Nvidea was saying that they had no projects relating to Nintendo between the Eurogamer leak and the Nintendo reveal.

I can't see why Nintendo would create a scalable hybrid console and forgo one of the strongest benefits and opportunities of the architecture; iterative hardware upgrades. Especially given some of Switch's first party software would greatly benefit from running on higher clocked hardware. Additionally, Switch software is developed with scalable performance in mind; and as software on mobile phones and PC, usually, it is only an optimization patch that is necessary to take advantage of the upgrades.

That's not really a "successor". You aren't going to see Nintendo releasing multiple upgrades in this Switch generation. It may have something equivalent to a New 3DS or an Xbox One X, that isn't a successor. We're not going to see the whole S6, S7, S8 phone esc scheme until probably even after next gen.

They have the proper architecture for it this generation. Why not until after next generation?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.