By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

Trunks is swift, as always! Appreciate the diligence my friend!



                                                                                                             

Around the Network
Kerotan said: 
The_Liquid_Laser said:
I kind of think Microsoft is treating the XB1 very much like how Nintendo treated the Wii U. When it was getting near the end, it got little support because they were gearing up for the Switch. Well XB1 isn't getting many exclusives anymore, but we know they just bought several new studios. Put those things together and it seems like Microsoft is planning to have a very strong launch/first year for its next console.

Also, I don't understand why so many people say the release is going to be in 2020. Does this come from an insider, or is this just one of those "facts" on the internet where you repeat a lie enough times until it becomes the truth?

Good point regarding release. I think we all just assume MS won't want Sony getting a head start and will either release with the ps4 or jump the gun. 

Actually, I think either Sony or Microsoft (or both) will release in 2019.  That would be "on time", especially for Sony.  Also if one of them releases in 2019 and the other waits, then the first one to release steals the spotlight from the other.  The only good reason to release in 2020 is to get the benefit from selling out early in the year like Switch did with its launch.  But the marketing buzz will be a lot stronger for someone releasing around holiday season 2019.  Both of these times are good.  Anything after this is really waiting too long.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

 Anything after this is really waiting too long.

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

 Anything after this is really waiting too long.

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

The big 3 have "waited too long" before. PS3/360 weren't replaced until 7/8 years after they launched.

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

What about riding the PS4 gravy train for as long as possible as they're making money on it and are under no pressure to move on to the next gen?



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Around the Network

As the XBO is now up to 24.5M in the U.S., that means the U.S. represents just shy of 60% of all XBO sales globally. I've long assumed the XBO will end at around 30M in the U.S., though it could reach 32M. Assuming my projections and that 60% share hold, the XBO should end up somewhere in the 50-55M range for lifetime unit sales. Not bad, but not great, either.

Next gen, assuming MS positions the Xbox 4 properly, they ought to at least split the market about 50/50 in the U.S. and increase their market share a bit in Europe, though Japan will remain a lost cause. I'm thinking maybe 60-70M lifetime, which assuming no overall growth in the size of the market for conventional consoles would likely yield maybe 100M for the PS5. Of course, we'll have to see what MS & Sony's plans are for next gen. Any missteps could make a huge difference, and those initial announcements are going to be crucial in determining if those systems start off on the right foot.



colafitte said:
CGI-Quality said:

Roughly 4-5 million each year (perhaps a bit less next). 

If XBO sells 5M in 2019 I just see impossible to sell 4M in 2020 if next gen comes around November.

But anyway around 50M is still a good number for a console, and if it is profitable, Microsoft is happy. 

What about 5.3 & 3.7 million?

If 2018 was ~6.5m than that's a ~18% drop followed by a ~30% drop.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I don't think PS5 and Xbox one 2 will realease in 2019. 2021 is more likely



Great Job



Is there is any chance that we can see Spanish numbers or another countries in the main/front page?