I know it's not technically an indie game, but you most certainly couldn't list Fortnite as being a AAA title, that thing is one game mode and one map for a good lot of the versions which are most certainly system sellers since it has been bundled with all 3 of the major consoles... even though the game is free 2 play lol.

Fortnites initial budget (marketing aside) was tiny compared to any AAA title and the team behind the project was a side group to the ones creating Fortnite - Save the world, the campaign of the game which isn't even included with several versions including the Switch version.

The number of indies that cant run on NSW in the next 5 years is probably pretty miniscule.

The only 3rd party support that Switch is really at risk of losing when PS5/XB4 release is AAA titles and Switch already doesnt get many of those.

I get that.

The reason I made that statement was to prove a point.

To point out that the games that really drive sales on the PS4/XB1 and ultimately on the PS5/XBn are games that while now may be able to run on a switch (doom/fortnite...etc) will not be able to run on the switch when their PS5/XBn iterations are released. I was tryin t pint ut to a certain poster that the vastly different libraries of the platforms means sony or MS has nothing to worry about with regards t the switch because the games that sell their hardware wll not make it to the switch anyways.

Like no one is going to buy a NS to play the next GTA, Assasins Creed, COD, Elder scrolls, Cyberpunk....... etc. 

Gotcha, I know there are a few users who think  Switch not being able to get ports of AAA PS5/XB4 games will affect it in a meaningful way, it seemed like that's what you were saying.

As somebody who had an original Xbox growing up and loved the Xbox 360, MS lost me with the Xbone. 

It just wasn't a very interesting or appealing platform; it seemed like just a 360 an underwhelming graphics upgrade, and without the compelling games that made me buy a 360.

It's very unlikely at this stage I will buy the next gen Xbox.

Naaaa...... I don't think it will affect it. I have always been among those that believe that the switch isn't directly competing with the PS4/XB1. And the best prof of that is how much library independence exists between the NS and the the two platforms.

This is also why I say the NS will live and die on the strength of nintendo first party (though it seems indies are starting to fill the gaps which I didnt expect)

Nintendo platforms have never really got PS/XB type AAA games and Nintendo AAA are usually always exclusives anyway. I d believe that the NS will lose some momentum around when the new consoles are released though.. but that is just more due to an increased media buzz and focus on those consoles. 

I dont think it's just indies but A-AA games in general are finding a home on Switch. Kid/family titles have always had a place on Nintendo platforms and they seem to be doing well on Switch.

Japanese support is really picking up and most mid level Japanese games on PS4 were multiplat on PSV/PS3/PS4 for the first few years so I assume the same will happen when PS5 releases, those games will have Switch/PS4 versions for the first ~2 years.

Free to play AA games like Fortnite, Paladins, Arena  of Valor & Warframe are doing well. I expect these type of games to keep coming to Switch for a few more years.

Retro games do well on Nintendo platforms too and Switch has gotten a ton of them already.

Same goes for 7th gen ports/remasters, publishers love releasing these and most of these are the first time they have been on a Nintendo console or on a portable.

None of these things individually are system sellers but the combination of them help give Switch a well rounded, diverse library.

Ya Switch will start losing momentum around the time PS5/XB4 release, 2020/2021 will be year 4/5 for Switch, a normal time to see decline.

The third party helps, but the switch is obviously selling because of exclusives. They need more in a timely fashion. Once they pass the xbox they will need at least two major titles per yer for the next three years.

Yeah, the move Microsoft is currently making puts the Xbox at odds of maximizing marketshare. Because of their relationship wth third party, they would definitely need to cross their fingers that sony trips over their own feet again like last gen so they can pick up the pieces. Chances are (with sony paying attention) this wont happen anytime soon. Also, you're right that PC gamers have less of a reason to own an Xbox now, so honestly, I hope they maximize their output to reach the two billion gamers they projected to reach earlier. Phil Spencer has lofty goals and has already stated on television that the console isnt the main priority. Sony beat them back into reality, which got them to invest in first party. Hopefully this means they will find a happy middle ground, on their road to innovate software distribution to their many future consumer bases. Gamepass will also be on PC, so they Xbox should be more competitive on PC next gen (in the midst of this storefront war on PC).

As for my prediction, I thought the Xbox would sell similarly to the 360, but the problem is the only reason the 360 reached 86-87 million is because it had eight years to do it before the consoles successor launched. The PS3 had seven years and the 360 had eight and it pretty much ended in a tie, while the Wii won and moved on.

I don't know about Xbox reaching 52 million, but perhaps that might occur, given the software is up to par and inspiring console sales. Microsoft's marketing has proven to be amazing,because they've been selling well despite having so few console selling games. Its pretty much like they took a page out of EA or Activision's playbook.

Lets see what happens because the switch is coming for the Xbox and thats another prediction I had for Q4. Perhaps the switch my pass the xbox sooner than that. Lets see.