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Forums - Sales Discussion - ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

aiwass on 25 January 2019

Maybe Microsoft should actually invest in exclusives and more content. It seems like they've just kept releasing revisions for the sake of artificial sales boosts and manufactured, bullshit hype ("THE MOST POWERFUL CONSOLE IN THE HISTORY OF MANKIND!!!!!" which tends to be the case with the most recently-released system, hmmm...), which evidently hasn't even worked so well. A console needs to have big titles in between console releases... were there any major, big titles released between the time of Xbox One S and X? And what about the new console? They haven't released a single heavy-hitter on the level of what PlayStation is getting since the original Xbox One, and they're already teasing about their next system. What are they smoking? Consoles live and die by their games.



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Ganoncrotch on 25 January 2019
curl-6 said:
Ganoncrotch said:

you're talking about what... 8 weeks over the next 100 that it might rise over 85k? how many of the next 100 weeks do you imagine it will be sub 85k? because I'd wager at around 92 of them.

It's not down much from this time in 2018 and it sold how much last year?

Besides which, it's likely going to be around for more than another 105 weeks anyway.

When it comes to the reasons to choose an X1 over the other systems available one of the main selling points early in the generation was "me and mates are coming from X360, we're getting the new Xbox's" that selling point works well while the system has a potential future but when it starts to decline in sales this reason to buy a console will have a cascade effect on sales dropping, each other person who picks a ps4 or switch instead of X1 means that the chances of someones mates all gaming on Xbox live are reduced on a weekly basis, other reasons to buy a X1 over a PS4 are basically comparisons of exclusives and AAA multiplats running significantly worse than on the rival system unless you're talking about the premium versions of the systems in which case the X1 sales are now dropping to the point where third parties would be foolish to invest extra dev time into X1X exclusive optimization given the smaller market that you are selling to.

Switch has Nintendo games, portability and the attention of a lot of studios who are now opening up to porting software to the system because of its popularity.

PS4 has some stellar exclusives and really gets the best treatment by 3rd parties in terms of optimization, resolution, frame rates.

X1 has? pretty much every exclusive IP from the X360 generation has shifted to also be available on Win10 and multi platform games while they might run better than the Switch versions are still miles off the PS4 variants which would be it's direct TV only competition. I guess the system has a UHD 4k blu ray drive in it... but how popular is it in your area to buy physical media films and how available are 4k UHDs in your town? Pretty much only way I could get my hands on one is online.

 

Perhaps there is something I'm missing when I look at the 3 systems but as someone who has a decent gaming PC, a PS4 and a Switch I feel I'm missing absolutely nothing by not having an X1 in my setup.

 

edit - my point on the 105 weeks if you multiply 85,000 x 105 to make 9m was that CGI said he could see the system achieving 9m in 2 years, which would be 104 weeks, so even if it sold this exact amount for the next 2 years, it would fail to sell 9m by 85000



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curl-6 on 25 January 2019
Ganoncrotch said:
curl-6 said:

It's not down much from this time in 2018 and it sold how much last year?

Besides which, it's likely going to be around for more than another 105 weeks anyway.

When it comes to the reasons to choose an X1 over the other systems available one of the main selling points early in the generation was "me and mates are coming from X360, we're getting the new Xbox's" that selling point works well while the system has a potential future but when it starts to decline in sales this reason to buy a console will have a cascade effect on sales dropping, each other person who picks a ps4 or switch instead of X1 means that the chances of someones mates all gaming on Xbox live are reduced on a weekly basis, other reasons to buy a X1 over a PS4 are basically comparisons of exclusives and AAA multiplats running significantly worse than on the rival system unless you're talking about the premium versions of the systems in which case the X1 sales are now dropping to the point where third parties would be foolish to invest extra dev time into X1X exclusive optimization given the smaller market that you are selling to.

Switch has Nintendo games, portability and the attention of a lot of studios who are now opening up to porting software to the system because of its popularity.

PS4 has some stellar exclusives and really gets the best treatment by 3rd parties in terms of optimization, resolution, frame rates.

X1 has? pretty much every exclusive IP from the X360 generation has shifted to also be available on Win10 and multi platform games while they might run better than the Switch versions are still miles off the PS4 variants which would be it's direct TV only competition. I guess the system has a UHD 4k blu ray drive in it... but how popular is it in your area to buy physical media films and how available are 4k UHDs in your town? Pretty much only way I could get my hands on one is online.

Perhaps there is something I'm missing when I look at the 3 systems but as someone who has a decent gaming PC, a PS4 and a Switch I feel I'm missing absolutely nothing by not having an X1 in my setup.

What does that have to do with what i was saying though? I never claimed it's going to make a comeback or become competitive with PS4/Switch, that's obviously not gonna happen. But it selling another 9 million before being discontinued is not at all far-fetched.

I forget how much it sold in 2018 but IIRC it was in the ballpark of 7 million. A moderate drop due to the age of the system could see that decline to 5-6 million this year, then another 4 million between then and its discontinuation seems very achievable. It would only need to sell, say, 3 million in 2020 and another 1 million in 2021, that's hardly out of reach.



Ganoncrotch on 25 January 2019
curl-6 said:
Ganoncrotch said:

When it comes to the reasons to choose an X1 over the other systems available one of the main selling points early in the generation was "me and mates are coming from X360, we're getting the new Xbox's" that selling point works well while the system has a potential future but when it starts to decline in sales this reason to buy a console will have a cascade effect on sales dropping, each other person who picks a ps4 or switch instead of X1 means that the chances of someones mates all gaming on Xbox live are reduced on a weekly basis, other reasons to buy a X1 over a PS4 are basically comparisons of exclusives and AAA multiplats running significantly worse than on the rival system unless you're talking about the premium versions of the systems in which case the X1 sales are now dropping to the point where third parties would be foolish to invest extra dev time into X1X exclusive optimization given the smaller market that you are selling to.

Switch has Nintendo games, portability and the attention of a lot of studios who are now opening up to porting software to the system because of its popularity.

PS4 has some stellar exclusives and really gets the best treatment by 3rd parties in terms of optimization, resolution, frame rates.

X1 has? pretty much every exclusive IP from the X360 generation has shifted to also be available on Win10 and multi platform games while they might run better than the Switch versions are still miles off the PS4 variants which would be it's direct TV only competition. I guess the system has a UHD 4k blu ray drive in it... but how popular is it in your area to buy physical media films and how available are 4k UHDs in your town? Pretty much only way I could get my hands on one is online.

Perhaps there is something I'm missing when I look at the 3 systems but as someone who has a decent gaming PC, a PS4 and a Switch I feel I'm missing absolutely nothing by not having an X1 in my setup.

What does that have to do with what i was saying though? I never claimed it's going to make a comeback or become competitive with PS4/Switch, that's obviously not gonna happen. But it selling another 9 million before being discontinued is not at all far-fetched.

I forget how much it sold in 2018 but IIRC it was in the ballpark of 7 million. A moderate drop due to the age of the system could see that decline to 5-6 million this year, then another 4 million between then and its discontinuation seems very achievable. It would only need to sell, say, 3 million in 2020 and another 1 million in 2021, that's hardly out of reach.

Very likely it will go over the 9million mark before being discontinued, my post was to CGI who said 9m in 2 years, that won't happen unless something drastic happens imo.

Never know as well, MS might come out with a revision in the same family, they've spoken about forwards compatibility when it comes to their next system so as to not be starting a new generation from scratch so there is the possibility that the next MS machine will be the Xbox1-Chapter2 but still be in the same sales clump as the original machines so it will go well beyond 50m units when wave 2 would begin.

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/gaming/856963/Xbox-One-X-backwards-compatibility-Microsoft-forward-compatibility-PS4-Pro



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jason1637 on 25 January 2019
zorg1000 said:
jason1637 said:
At the same time during the 360 it sold 50m compared to XBO at 41m. Definitely a step down but hopefully next gen MS can rebound. They've been planting the seed to have a pretty good 9th gen.

But the gap is only going to get worse because 360 hasnt even has its peak year yet. In 2011 360 did 13.8 million which is more than double what XBO will do this year.

True, at the end it will probably be 85-86m for the 360 and 50-52m for the XBO. The 360 has the Kinect in the latter part of the generation to give it breath of new life and I doubt the same will happen for the XBO.

eva01beserk said:
jason1637 said:
At the same time during the 360 it sold 50m compared to XBO at 41m. Definitely a step down but hopefully next gen MS can rebound. They've been planting the seed to have a pretty good 9th gen.

People keep saying that, or that it will have a big launch. But I fail to see that happening. I mean all the studios  they bought up are either very small with no real big system seller, or a studio that already made exclusives for them. Also not to mention its only gona be a couple of years dv time since they acquire the studios to the supposed release of 2020.  I can only picture small games coming at launch of next gen and maybe a some bigger games mid gen and forward. Ninja theory is the only studio customers can actually expect something from. 

In 2013 the PS4 sold like 4m and XBO like 3m and that was with all the backlash MS got.I think having a big launch is pretty much a given for both companies. What matters is how the generation pans out after the first few launch months.

All the studios they currently have and the new ones are going at a rapid pace. And yeah not all the games need to release at once but MS will give them time too cook so we could see a steady release stream of games which is what they are probably going for since they have gamepass now. They also publish 2nd party games so there's that. Here is what we know so far for their studios.

343I- Has been growing and is working on Halo Infinite while updating MCC.

Rare- Has been growing and has 100-150 on SoT and 80 started working on their new game during the summer.

Coalition- Working on Gears 5, and Gears Tactics. They too has been growing.

Mojang- Working on Minecraft and Minecraft Dungeons.

Undead Labs- Has been growing and working on State of Decay 2 content. Probably started early production on a new game.

Compulsion- Has been growing and updating We Happy Few.

Playground- Has been working and they have a Forza Horizon and Fable team.

InXile- Has been growing, has 2 teams now. Working on Wasteland 3, Bards Tale remaster, and they have an unannounced project.

Ninja Theory- Has been growing and they have multiple games in development. Their are rumors that their "Bleeding Edge" game is nearing final stages of development.

Obsidean- They are working on the Outer Worlds.

The Initiative- They have been hiring some top talent from Rockstar, Crystal Dynamics, Guerrilla Games etc. Im expecting a huge new IP from them.

And MS are still looking at studios to buy. Overall MS will be competitive next gen when it comes to first party and I think this will help them have a better generation.



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eva01beserk on 25 January 2019
EricHiggin said:
eva01beserk said:

People keep saying that, or that it will have a big launch. But I fail to see that happening. I mean all the studios  they bought up are either very small with no real big system seller, or a studio that already made exclusives for them. Also not to mention its only gona be a couple of years dv time since they acquire the studios to the supposed release of 2020.  I can only picture small games coming at launch of next gen and maybe a some bigger games mid gen and forward. Ninja theory is the only studio customers can actually expect something from. 

With studio purchases in 2017 and 'XB2' launching holiday 2020 probably, You will likely have Halo Infinite as the big launch title which should hold the core XB fans over for quite a while, maybe even the first year with 2019 BC titles. Then you will probably have one or two GOW sized games drop throughout the year, year after year, mostly to hype Game Pass. They may not be quite GOW level quality, but worthy more intimate story driven titles that MS doesn't typically have on their platform. Let the third parties do most of the gap filling with multi player. There is enough time to make this happen and will be enough to put XB on solid ground and stop the remaining bleeds. They will have to really up their game beyond this as the gen goes on with some new blockbuster IP, if they want to reclaim any lost ground. It's definitely doable but won't be easy as PS isn't likely to let up much if any at all.

I hope that you mean Gears of War, Cuz the xbox has never had anything on the lvl of God Of War and a bunch of tiny indy devs wont be comming anywhere close anytime soon. And If even Ms own big experience studios cant get 1 big game a year, just around 2 small games that dont even review well. Cuphead has been the only one in likee the past 4 years and is no more than a tiny game that wont really move units, on what basis do you claim that they will make 2 GOW sized games year after year? Seing as what happened to platinum games I would say there is evidence to the contrary and the little quality thouse new studios had, will just drop, then somewhat mid next gen they might bring something average. 



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Ganoncrotch on 25 January 2019
jason1637 said:
zorg1000 said:

But the gap is only going to get worse because 360 hasnt even has its peak year yet. In 2011 360 did 13.8 million which is more than double what XBO will do this year.

True, at the end it will probably be 85-86m for the 360 and 50-52m for the XBO. The 360 has the Kinect in the latter part of the generation to give it breath of new life and I doubt the same will happen for the XBO.

eva01beserk said:

People keep saying that, or that it will have a big launch. But I fail to see that happening. I mean all the studios  they bought up are either very small with no real big system seller, or a studio that already made exclusives for them. Also not to mention its only gona be a couple of years dv time since they acquire the studios to the supposed release of 2020.  I can only picture small games coming at launch of next gen and maybe a some bigger games mid gen and forward. Ninja theory is the only studio customers can actually expect something from. 

In 2013 the PS4 sold like 4m and XBO like 3m and that was with all the backlash MS got.I think having a big launch is pretty much a given for both companies. What matters is how the generation pans out after the first few launch months.

All the studios they currently have and the new ones are going at a rapid pace. And yeah not all the games need to release at once but MS will give them time too cook so we could see a steady release stream of games which is what they are probably going for since they have gamepass now. They also publish 2nd party games so there's that. Here is what we know so far for their studios.

Mojang- Working on Minecraft and Minecraft Dungeons.

Just @ this one in particular, I don't think you'll ever have Minecraft as a system seller for X1 or other MS branded consoles, if they were to rebrand that game as exclusive to their console it would be incredibly costly for them to remove the sales from the other systems where it sells gangbusters of the software and tons of microtransactions in MC servers and skin packs. If they were to turn it exclusive you might as well write off the money they used to buy the franchise that same day.



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

eva01beserk on 25 January 2019
jason1637 said:
zorg1000 said:

But the gap is only going to get worse because 360 hasnt even has its peak year yet. In 2011 360 did 13.8 million which is more than double what XBO will do this year.

True, at the end it will probably be 85-86m for the 360 and 50-52m for the XBO. The 360 has the Kinect in the latter part of the generation to give it breath of new life and I doubt the same will happen for the XBO.

eva01beserk said:

People keep saying that, or that it will have a big launch. But I fail to see that happening. I mean all the studios  they bought up are either very small with no real big system seller, or a studio that already made exclusives for them. Also not to mention its only gona be a couple of years dv time since they acquire the studios to the supposed release of 2020.  I can only picture small games coming at launch of next gen and maybe a some bigger games mid gen and forward. Ninja theory is the only studio customers can actually expect something from. 

In 2013 the PS4 sold like 4m and XBO like 3m and that was with all the backlash MS got.I think having a big launch is pretty much a given for both companies. What matters is how the generation pans out after the first few launch months.

All the studios they currently have and the new ones are going at a rapid pace. And yeah not all the games need to release at once but MS will give them time too cook so we could see a steady release stream of games which is what they are probably going for since they have gamepass now. They also publish 2nd party games so there's that. Here is what we know so far for their studios.

343I- Has been growing and is working on Halo Infinite while updating MCC.

Rare- Has been growing and has 100-150 on SoT and 80 started working on their new game during the summer.

Coalition- Working on Gears 5, and Gears Tactics. They too has been growing.

Mojang- Working on Minecraft and Minecraft Dungeons.

Undead Labs- Has been growing and working on State of Decay 2 content. Probably started early production on a new game.

Compulsion- Has been growing and updating We Happy Few.

Playground- Has been working and they have a Forza Horizon and Fable team.

InXile- Has been growing, has 2 teams now. Working on Wasteland 3, Bards Tale remaster, and they have an unannounced project.

Ninja Theory- Has been growing and they have multiple games in development. Their are rumors that their "Bleeding Edge" game is nearing final stages of development.

Obsidean- They are working on the Outer Worlds.

The Initiative- They have been hiring some top talent from Rockstar, Crystal Dynamics, Guerrilla Games etc. Im expecting a huge new IP from them.

And MS are still looking at studios to buy. Overall MS will be competitive next gen when it comes to first party and I think this will help them have a better generation.

I dont doubt that they will have a much better Gen. With more studios you get more games and no matter the quality of said games, more is always better. But thats not my argument. Is that is foolish to believe that thouse new smal teams are gona come out swiging with major exclusives "GOW" caliber right out the gate. Im saying it wont be untill like at least mid gen untill thouse new guys bring out anything good. At the begining aside from the big 3 halo gears and forza, all we will see is fodder to build up gamepass.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

curl-6 on 25 January 2019
Ganoncrotch said:
curl-6 said:

What does that have to do with what i was saying though? I never claimed it's going to make a comeback or become competitive with PS4/Switch, that's obviously not gonna happen. But it selling another 9 million before being discontinued is not at all far-fetched.

I forget how much it sold in 2018 but IIRC it was in the ballpark of 7 million. A moderate drop due to the age of the system could see that decline to 5-6 million this year, then another 4 million between then and its discontinuation seems very achievable. It would only need to sell, say, 3 million in 2020 and another 1 million in 2021, that's hardly out of reach.

Very likely it will go over the 9million mark before being discontinued, my post was to CGI who said 9m in 2 years, that won't happen unless something drastic happens imo.

Never know as well, MS might come out with a revision in the same family, they've spoken about forwards compatibility when it comes to their next system so as to not be starting a new generation from scratch so there is the possibility that the next MS machine will be the Xbox1-Chapter2 but still be in the same sales clump as the original machines so it will go well beyond 50m units when wave 2 would begin.

https://www.express.co.uk/entertainment/gaming/856963/Xbox-One-X-backwards-compatibility-Microsoft-forward-compatibility-PS4-Pro

It'd be kinda a bad call to keep the 'Xbox One' name as it has negative connotations. And even if they did keep the name for their next gen system, if it was an all new system and the games no longer came to the base Xbone, then it wouldn't be the same sales clump regardless of what it was called. I mean Wii U wasn't clumped together with the Wii.



jason1637 on 25 January 2019
Ganoncrotch said:
jason1637 said:

True, at the end it will probably be 85-86m for the 360 and 50-52m for the XBO. The 360 has the Kinect in the latter part of the generation to give it breath of new life and I doubt the same will happen for the XBO.

In 2013 the PS4 sold like 4m and XBO like 3m and that was with all the backlash MS got.I think having a big launch is pretty much a given for both companies. What matters is how the generation pans out after the first few launch months.

All the studios they currently have and the new ones are going at a rapid pace. And yeah not all the games need to release at once but MS will give them time too cook so we could see a steady release stream of games which is what they are probably going for since they have gamepass now. They also publish 2nd party games so there's that. Here is what we know so far for their studios.

Mojang- Working on Minecraft and Minecraft Dungeons.

Just @ this one in particular, I don't think you'll ever have Minecraft as a system seller for X1 or other MS branded consoles, if they were to rebrand that game as exclusive to their console it would be incredibly costly for them to remove the sales from the other systems where it sells gangbusters of the software and tons of microtransactions in MC servers and skin packs. If they were to turn it exclusive you might as well write off the money they used to buy the franchise that same day.

I dont think MS will make Minecraft exclusive. I just added that because it's one of their studios and Minecraft Dungeons has been announced for PC only. So their is a possibility it will be coming to Xbox also.