ZhugeEX "Xbox One sales around 41m"

[The_Liquid_Laser]

TheBlackNaruto said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

When Sony released the PS2, the PS1 continued to sell with very long legs.  It's gravy train did not end when the PS2 released.
When Sony released the PS3, the PS2 continued its gravy train continued for a long time.
The PS4 is a very solid console like the PS1 and the PS2.  It will have strong legs even after the PS5 releases, regardless if it comes out in 2019 or a later year. 

What Sony needs to be worried about is the PS5.  The PS2 was the best selling console of all time and that did not help the PS3 one bit.  The PS4 is very solid, but that will not help the PS5 one bit.  The longer they wait to release the PS5, the harder time it will have in the marketplace.  The Switch already has a head start that is two years old and growing.  Are they going to let Microsoft have a head start too?  How much are they going to cripple the PS5 before it even launches?

Switch is Gen 8 not 9 so it has no head start to be honest. At least that is the consensus. 

More than 50% believe that, but it is not a consensus.  In this case the majority are wrong.

Mnementh said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The PS3 waited 7 years, because it was such an ambitious console with ambitious specs.  It launched with a $500/$600 price tag.  It actually got a $400 model in 2007 which would be 6 years before the PS4 launch.  Also financial losses were a big factor why Sony waited to release the PS4.  It needed to make sure that it wouldn't sell at too much of a loss even at launch.

The PS4 was not considered to have ambitious specs when it launched.  Also Sony is not hurting financially like they were during the PS3 years.  There is no business reason for Sony to wait.  It is smarter business for them to release in 2019.

As for Microsoft, they are a wildcard.  They are still figuring out the console business in a lot of ways.  Also a lot of their strategy is around figuring out how to "punk" Sony in some way.  If they can upstage Sony then they will do it.  With the XBox360 they upstaged Sony by releasing a year early.  But they might come up with some new tactic for their next console.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Well, PS3 peaked 2011 and PS4 released end of 2013. As PS4 peaked 2017, a release at the end of 2019 seems not out of question.

But it is not that simple. PS4 dropped in 2018 around 10%, PS3 dropped 15% in 2012. More importantly: PS3-software-sales dropped by 13% in 2012, PS4-software sales grew by 6%! So maybe Sony is willing to sit out the PS4 for a bit longer. Late in cycle they can cash in more on games, royalties and probably on hardware (PS4 also has no pricecut for some time). If sales start to drop more significantly, especially for software the new gen will come.

So, as I see it Sony might be comfortable to wait out the new gen a bit longer, as they have the sales on their side. That could still mean they drop the PS5 in the holidays this year, if sales drop sharply in 2019 (although the still have the pricecut card in their hands), but may wait a little longer if sales are fine. So maybe early 2020 (like Switch) or holidays 2020. I expect no later launch.

This comfortable sales situation is even better for Sony, as they possibly can wait out for MS to make the first move. They can access the main marketing points for the new XBox and counter it.

MS is in a more dire situation. The sales peaked back in 2015, and while the sales still decrease slowly, they decrease. On the software side of things it looks better though, still good sales. Also MS is not in need of cash. So I'm not sure about them. They may target a 2019 launch ... or not.

You bring up a good point, and I think that is the sort of thing that depends on the health of the company as a whole.  Sony, as a whole, was not doing well during the PS3 years.  They had to be a lot more careful with spending and release schedules and so forth.  My understanding is that Sony, as a whole, is doing pretty well right now.  Obviously their gaming division is making good money, and I know their movies are making money.  (Not sure about their other divisions.)

So if they are doing well, then they can afford to worry more about their next console.  I don't think releasing a PS5 in 2019 will kill their profits from the PS4.  Consoles in their final few years make a lot of profit even if there is a newer console on the market.  They really are smarter releasing in 2019.  Another blunder like the PS3 will cost them a lot more than they will get in PS4 profits by releasing later.