Forums - Sales Discussion - Japan Sales Week 2 Media Create - January 07-13, 2019

Farsala said:

Par for the course.

3DS:

2011- 7,365,636

2012- 16,457,553

2013- 23.575.562

2014- 23.387.031

2015- 18.438.698

2016- 14.780.505

2017- 12.008.236

2018-  1.783.274

Total- 117,796,495 (4.8 physical games per system)

PS4:

2014- 2.441.876

2015- 5.114.598

2016- 8.672.086

2017- 10.021.801

2018- 8.645.408

Total- 34,895,769 (4.58 physical games per system)

Switch:

2017- 7.328.882

2018- 12.720.950

Total- 20,049,832 (2.92 physical games per system)

Here you can see 3DS and PS4 has a very close physical game attach ratio and while the 3DS was flat or started declining after its 3rd year, the PS4 was up and started declining after its 4th year. Obviously attach ratios improve over the years so expect the PS4 to surpass the 3DS in physical game attach ratio at some point while the Switch may do so as well. The Switch is doing a bit worse than expected, as it matched the 3DS in its first year but then fell quite a bit behind in its 2nd year.

3DS had an install base of 9.8 million at the end of 2012, meaning it had an attach rate of 2.43 versus Switch's 2.92 at the equivalent point in its life. Somehow, this is spun as "worse than expected."



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StarDoor said:
Farsala said:

Par for the course.

3DS:

2011- 7,365,636

2012- 16,457,553

2013- 23.575.562

2014- 23.387.031

2015- 18.438.698

2016- 14.780.505

2017- 12.008.236

2018-  1.783.274

Total- 117,796,495 (4.8 physical games per system)

PS4:

2014- 2.441.876

2015- 5.114.598

2016- 8.672.086

2017- 10.021.801

2018- 8.645.408

Total- 34,895,769 (4.58 physical games per system)

Switch:

2017- 7.328.882

2018- 12.720.950

Total- 20,049,832 (2.92 physical games per system)

Here you can see 3DS and PS4 has a very close physical game attach ratio and while the 3DS was flat or started declining after its 3rd year, the PS4 was up and started declining after its 4th year. Obviously attach ratios improve over the years so expect the PS4 to surpass the 3DS in physical game attach ratio at some point while the Switch may do so as well. The Switch is doing a bit worse than expected, as it matched the 3DS in its first year but then fell quite a bit behind in its 2nd year.

3DS had an install base of 9.8 million at the end of 2012, meaning it had an attach rate of 2.43 versus Switch's 2.92 at the equivalent point in its life. Somehow, this is spun as "worse than expected."

You missed this part "a bit".

In general Switch has done a bit worse than expected for most people, it had good pace with the 3DS but not anymore. Due to having less HW sales it also had less SW sales it is only natural. If you followed the last 6 weeks of media create , you would know that I challenged everyone to predict the last 6 weeks for the holidays and LTD sales at the end of the year, but only got 3 takers. I admit I underestimated the Switch by about 9.5%, but the other 3 predictors overestimated the Switch. So with that sample size 3/4 expected the Switch to do better :).

Last edited by Farsala - on 17 January 2019

Bofferbrauer2 said:
Dr.Vita said:

Is this digital included?


I would also add this:

Probably not, but that wouldn't change anything anyway.

Is it just me or are the PS4 software sales just awful when compared to the install base? 3DS and Vita at least have a reason, getting slowly phased out, but PS4 is still selling pretty well.

Also, almost 1/4 of those 8.6M are MHW, don't even wanna know where the software sales would be without it...

Well yes, it would. Monster Hunter World is the best selling game of the year when counting digital. They reported over 1 million digital sales right near launch.

And of course, BLOPS4 would also push into the top 10. Doesn't change Switch from being dominant (if that's what your point was, then I apologize).



outlawauron said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Probably not, but that wouldn't change anything anyway.

Is it just me or are the PS4 software sales just awful when compared to the install base? 3DS and Vita at least have a reason, getting slowly phased out, but PS4 is still selling pretty well.

Also, almost 1/4 of those 8.6M are MHW, don't even wanna know where the software sales would be without it...

Well yes, it would. Monster Hunter World is the best selling game of the year when counting digital. They reported over 1 million digital sales right near launch.

And of course, BLOPS4 would also push into the top 10. Doesn't change Switch from being dominant (if that's what your point was, then I apologize).

Ah good to hear. Expected that the PS4 software performance would be downplayed by the top 10 post.



outlawauron said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Probably not, but that wouldn't change anything anyway.

Is it just me or are the PS4 software sales just awful when compared to the install base? 3DS and Vita at least have a reason, getting slowly phased out, but PS4 is still selling pretty well.

Also, almost 1/4 of those 8.6M are MHW, don't even wanna know where the software sales would be without it...

Well yes, it would. Monster Hunter World is the best selling game of the year when counting digital. They reported over 1 million digital sales right near launch.

And of course, BLOPS4 would also push into the top 10. Doesn't change Switch from being dominant (if that's what your point was, then I apologize).

 

Not saying MHW isnt number 1 but we dont have smash digital at all. Yes nintendo games dont usually have high digital sales but smash could. Its a possibility. Ill kno when we see shipments



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Farsala said:
StarDoor said:

3DS had an install base of 9.8 million at the end of 2012, meaning it had an attach rate of 2.43 versus Switch's 2.92 at the equivalent point in its life. Somehow, this is spun as "worse than expected."

You missed this part "a bit".

In general Switch has done a bit worse than expected for most people, it had good pace with the 3DS but not anymore. Due to having less HW sales it also had less SW sales it is only natural. If you followed the last 6 weeks of media create , you would know that I challenged everyone to predict the last 6 weeks for the holidays and LTD sales at the end of the year, but only got 3 takers. I admit I underestimated the Switch by about 9.5%, but the other 3 predictors overestimated the Switch. So with that sample size 3/4 expected the Switch to do better :).

But Switch having higher attach rate means Switch software sales are more impressive than 3DS ones in same time period, and that's without count of digital sales that are for Switch much higher than they were on 3DS in any case.



tbone51 said:
outlawauron said:

Well yes, it would. Monster Hunter World is the best selling game of the year when counting digital. They reported over 1 million digital sales right near launch.

And of course, BLOPS4 would also push into the top 10. Doesn't change Switch from being dominant (if that's what your point was, then I apologize).

Not saying MHW isnt number 1 but we dont have smash digital at all. Yes nintendo games dont usually have high digital sales but smash could. Its a possibility. Ill kno when we see shipments

You're correct, we do not know digital sales for it yet, but history does point to it having a lower digital ratio. If it did have that strong of a performance digitally, then you can only tip your hat.



outlawauron said:
tbone51 said:

Not saying MHW isnt number 1 but we dont have smash digital at all. Yes nintendo games dont usually have high digital sales but smash could. Its a possibility. Ill kno when we see shipments

You're correct, we do not know digital sales for it yet, but history does point to it having a lower digital ratio. If it did have that strong of a performance digitally, then you can only tip your hat.

Yeah usually i wouldnt think a game would be that high for digital especially since we get a good idea on how much games could be (like nintendo games being 5%-15% digital).

 

That said smash seems to be different in this reguard. There is many things going for it being a high digital ratio compared to others. Smash also 1st for digital sales in the year as shown in a sales report (only being on sale for about 25days



GEO reports for the upcoming week:
"Kingdom Hearts III released on January 25 and ranked 1st. Since it's the first numbering entry in 13 years it has been drawing attention for a long time its reveal. It is one title I would like you to see keep growing in the future. Also, due to the release of PlayStation 4 Pro Kingdom Hearts III Limited Edition bundle, sales of PS4 have doubled compared to previous week.

Z Version and D Version of Resident Evil 2 ranked in 2nd and 3rd place respectively. While this is a remake of Resident Evil 2 that was released 21 years ago, its sales are exceeding Resident Evil 7 that was released 2 years ago."

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So PS4 sales could be in the 35-40k range.



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